[sdrealtor]

Blah, blah, blah! Never said any of the things you are trying to ridicule only that the first two weeks of April are traditionally very slow and that the data is not necessarily representative of what’s going on. If you don’t appreciate straight forward and truthful information about what is actually going on in the trenches your missing out on a vital pice of information. Everything I belive tells me this thing is going down but the market continues to be amazing resilient. In the primary area I track, the number of sales of detached homes through 4/18 are essentially equal to last year. Sure there is a lot more inventory but people are still buying and selling homes every day.

[sdrealtor]

Don’t read too much into early April stats. Anyone making decent money has spent the last two weeks shuffling receipts and meeting with their CPA. I have a bunch of listings that were each averaging 5 to 7 showings a week. When I left town, I told my higher priced listings to expect a very quiet week. Last week the low priced listings were shown slightly less than average. Of the two higher priced listings, one was shown once and the other had no showings. Both were shown twice today. Tax season is now behind us. The next 4 to 6 weeks will be very very telling as to the health of the market.

[sdrealtor]

A quick word of advice from my 10 + years of corporate sales experience. Be careful with those 200% of quota years, they’ll often get you fired in a year or two. Here’s the cycle I’ve seen (and personally experienced) over and over again. Young stud sales guy has great 200% of quota year by busting his butt. Get’s rewarded with a nice bonus, lots of kudos, trip to Rome/Austraila/UK and a nice plaque. Next year some financial guy putting the sales plan takes your record year numbers that will be difficult to replicate and gives you a quota of double your previous year production (or 400% of last years quota). You bust your butt and amazing produce a 50% increase over the last year which puts you at 75% of quota. Your thrilled at what you accomplished and management responds by splitting your territory in half and replacing you will two new young studs. I’ve seen it happen more times than I count.

Slow and steady growth will make for a longer happier corporate sales life.

[sdrealtor]

I come from on of those places back east where “most people never leave” and I’ll never go back for more than a visit. While SD is definitely more transient than many places there is a large and stable population committed to life here. It’s pretty funny but most people experience exactly what you have. The first three years, newcomers are excited to be here, typically renting and running around to all the fun places SD has to offer. They hold onto the identity of where they are from spending weekends at bars rooting for the Sox/Pats/Celtics, Yanks/Knick/Giants, Mets/Nets/Jets, Phils/Eagles/Sixers never truly embracing their new home nor trying to assimilate to life in a more diverse place than they came from. By diverse I mean everyone didnt go to the same school or grow up the same place. It becomes self selecting and most of the people you meet are in the same situation. Hence you think it is more transient than it actually is. After 3 years, people who are committed to staying begin to lay down roots and meet others who are equally committed. After that it becomes alot less transient.

My wife and I went through this ourselves and I have seen newbies go through this over and over again. Some make it and will stay forever….some don’t.

[sdrealtor]

Boston and OC
Just curious as to how old you are and how long you’ve been at the corporate sales gig?

[sdrealtor]

Sorry to jump in but this smacks of the “but it’s different in (fill-in the blank..in this case Boston) here” argument permeated by the permabulls. BTW, I havent checked lately but distinctly remember SD having one of the most highly educated populaces in the USA. We may be underpaid but we sure aren’t stupid. We are willing to make less to live in a better place. It’s sounds like you are resigned to this fact as well with a return planned in a couple years.

BTW, I have two master degrees and a wife that stays home with my kids also.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not one for presenting analysis on data that is inherently flawed in so many respects. Did you read my comments on “How Much did this house sell for?” The data is riddled with examples like this. This sale was reported as a $1M sale when it was actually 10% less. This was a real sale by an agent that wanted to “keep the comps up” in their neighborhood and was willing to pay the extra taxes. Things like this happen all the time and distort the data so as to make much of it meaningless. That is why I don’t give a lot of creedence to “birds eye view” analysis in real estate and why I say the best analysis is from a local agent with the knowledge, skills and experience to do so. Most don’t posses this things, so the laughter I heard when I suggested this is completely understood. As for Bob, I dont have anything personal against him. I just have a hard time when ANYONE sitting behind a desk tries to come off as an expert without wearing out a lot of shoe leather.

[sdrealtor]

I’m Back!

Nice mea culpa! Like I always say…..question everything and assume nothing. He assumed and got egg on his face. It’s interesting that he claims he was led to beleive otherwise….I wonder who if anyone actually led him to beleive this or was he simply cutting corners on his analysis and not really asking the right questions?

The problem with what he does is he breaks down the data on a macro level without really understanding it on a micro level. Without an understanding of the micro level its nearly impossible to present an accurate picture. Here’s an example..I call this

How much did this house sell for?

Joe Realtor lists a house for $1M. The first weekend he holds an open house and decides he loves it himself and wants to buy it. He buys the house with 20% down and it is reported as a sale for $1M. However, he was paid a $50,000 commission (5%- the market average). The seller also paid 1 point on his loan. Through the course of his inspection he found several issues that he requested the seller to address. In lieu of fixing them the seller gave him a $15,000 credit for paint, carpet and repairs. HOW MUCH DID THIS HOUSE REALLY SELL FOR?

BTW, This happens all the time.

Wish me luck…tonite I get the pleasure of presenting my clients offer to a seller and explaining why we beleive his house is worth $100,000 less than he beleives without even accounting for a downturn. I suspect it wont be the first time someone throws me out of their home nor will it be the last. Don’t you wish you had my job?

[sdrealtor]

Sorry folks but I’m on vacation.
Equalizer, Without getting into too much detail I could give your CPA a run for his money on tax issues as well as your financial planner, handyman, pta president or chamber of commerce president. The points you raise are great and probably some of the major reasons my clients use me. While they are great bonuses to my clients, giving tax advice or construction issue (though I often do with a disclaimer) is really best left to personal tax advisors and general contractors.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but that just doesnt happen. It would be extraordinarily difficult. BTW It’s 92011 not 92111. The sales prior to June 2005 for 92011 are in 92009. Even after the switch alot of the realtors still put listings in 92011 in 92009. Some still do today! Similarly, 92008 was split into 92008 and 92010 last year. Two years ago 92083 was split into 92083 and 92081 in Vista. Before that 92069 was split into 92069 and 92078 in San Marcos. These are just a few of the changes that make the data flawed in major ways. There are many many more challenges with the data then you could beleive.

Your statement that if they didnt restate things the MLS reports and statistics would be meaningless is not far from the truth. You really need an indepth knowledge about a specific area to know whats going on. All this analysis is good and fine but as I have said many times…there are numerous flaws in the data collection. The best analysis on what is going on still comes from an experienced, knowledgable local realtor or appraiser.

[sdrealtor]

He didnt account for that because I checked his numbers which were wrong. He took out the 92078 shadow zips but last years 92009 data is this years 92009 + 92011 data. He doesnt understand the geography. Stop trying to defend someone who is wrong it makes you look silly. He presents analysis on the entire county when he doesnt know the entire county. It would be like me trying to present myself as an expert on on Poway or Lakeside;)

[sdrealtor]

I really hate to pile on but this one was too funny to pass up. Seems our favorite realtor analyst reported that the sales volume in 92009 dropped a disappointing 50% and the average sales price dropped about $40K. Unfortunately, he seems to be unaware that the ZIP Code was split last June into two ZIPS (92009 and 92011-where the more expensive homes are). Combine the two ZIP and the numbers are completely different (80% of last year’s volume and up $10K in average price).

Keep asking those questions!

[sdrealtor]

To be honest, I’m not sure but it looks like they have a restricted license. This could be vfor a variety of reasons. The most common reason is not meeting educational/continuing education requirements for license renewal which inst necessarily bad (just lazy). If you are concerned, you can contact the DRE for a clarification to find out what the issue is.

[sdrealtor]

Unfortunately the “top 5% of agents” nationwide is accurate but also meaningless. First off, you can throw out at least 50% who are part time or just plain unproductive. Now your in the top 50% if you actually show up more than 1 day a week.

The average Realtor does 3 to 5 deals a year. Throw in home prices double to triple here than most places and VOILA….Top 5% after selling 6 to 10 homes with an average price of $750,000.

The DRE website is open to the public and will give you information regarding tenure and disciplimary actions. I beleive a new law was recently passed that will require us to put our DRE License # on our business cards which will make it easier to find us in the database which is huge and makes it difficult to find agents which common surnames.

As for the how many deals question….that’s limited to someone with MLS access who knows how to get that information. I’d venture to guess that 9 out of 10 agents have no clue how to do this. My suggestion is to ask. A good agent should be willing and able to provide this information. Ask for references on this list, if they wont provide them…..uh oooh! If you contact any references make sure to ask how they know them. Aunt Betty will always have great things to say about her favorite neice.

[sdrealtor]

Bugs,
Well said….as always.

[Author]

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