[sdrealtor]

If you have time to wait, watch the market. I dont know whether this scenario will ever come to pass but here is how the samrtest folks made a killing last time around. If prices come down diginificantly, wait until they are languishing at a low level for at least 6 to 12 months. Wait until everyone including the media is saying real estate is horrible investment and why would anyone buy anything….that’s when the biggest winners bought.

Of course you have to keep living so dont wait too long if you can afford it. My father spent his whole life preparing for a well funded retirement and died 3 months after retiring at age 68 after barely being sick a day in his life. He never got to enjoy it, though Mom is set for life.

[sdrealtor]

Dont know much about prices there but one thing you want to check into are the Mello Roos which tend to be very high there. Many communities have tax rates nearly double that in SD so you would be paying 300 to 400 extra per month in taxes.

[sdrealtor]

If a house in Wisteria Place sold in the 800’s it surprises me. I’ll take your word for it. It must have been a premioum lot with huge upgrades. I have a client considering a home there right now and in the mid 600’s it looks like a bargain relative to most of what’s out there.

[sdrealtor]

No problem powayseller and I appreciate the exchange of thoughts. I work in an office (yes I actually go into my office everyday) surrounded by people that have been in the business for over 20 years. I hear the stories and have a fairly good idea of what can come down the line.
I’m a very analytical guy. My way of working with sellers is to do alot of analysis and provide them accurate data as to what is going on and what the trends are. Since most of my clients are well educated they can follow the data I provide them. Ultimately the choice as to how much risk they are willing to take is up to them but providing them an accurate picture is what I do best.
Interestingly, commissions seem to be trending up not down. While Help-U-sell and the other similar iterations of it have some good brokers most are pretty bad from what I see. I refer to the local guys in my area as Help-u-not-sell. Their success rates and falling and many of their claims are misleading. They post commission savings based upon 6% commission rates when 5% has been the market standard for the last 2 to 3 years. When you use someone like them you are saving 1 to 1.5% but generally end up with a overly priced property that is poorly marketed. When i take a listing, I invest about $1,000 the first week of my own money and continue spending on things that I know can directly influence the sale of said property. If it doesnt sell I lose. If the pay as you go, high volume guy fails you lose particularly in a softening market. The old timers tell me the discounters come and go every boom market. Without volume they perish and volume is declining. Real estate is nowhere near as profitable as the general public beleives and a very small % of realtors earn a decent living (over $50,000 net). Profitable real estate brokerages are even rarer from what I have heard. The big brokerages make their profits off ancillary services not real estate commissions.
As for me and my livelihood, I’m a pretty crafty guy. I am always on the lookout for business opportunities and am currently working on two small business ideas (one RE related and one retail business). I keep my costs low, live beneath my means and look forward to watching my children grow into good citizens of the world!

[sdrealtor]

Bugs,
I’m right behind you. You sound like you are in the biz also. In what capacity?

[sdrealtor]

Though I sold my first house in late 1999, I’m entering my 5th year full time in the biz. I have followed it closely much longer because real estate has always fascinated me.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry no website. Dont beleive in them. the only website worth anything is Realtor.com which is where my $$ goes. I only spend money trying to sell my listings. You will never see my face on a shopping cart or bustop. Many realtors spend alot of money on personal promotion. I prefer a low profile and working with clients I like. Thats the beauty of this business. If I dont like someone, I can fire them as a client. I’ve done it a few times.

[sdrealtor]

Actually there seems to be a flight to quality going on now. Seller’s are recognizing the value of an experienced strong agent and more of the listings seem to be going that way. As for my listings, some are selling quickly and some are taking longer. I am very picky and strongly encourage my buyer’s to buy homes with the thought they will be selling it one day. I look for what I call great real estate (big yards, privacy, nice floor plans, views, location, no power lines or busy roads etc.) The last home I listed for a former buyer client sold in less than one week about a month ago for a record price. SD is a wonderful place and great homes will always sell and they will sell faster and for more. If the markets declining that is particularly important because the sooner you can get your house in escrow the better.

I am on pace to make more this year. I have only had one listing not sell within 120 days in my career. It happened one year and I got the seller a great all cash offer on a tough to sell property the first week. I found the investor at a networking meeting I was at. I begged the seller to take it and he was very obstinant. After 90 days of trying we mutually agreed to part ways and he went FSBO. One year later, he is is still trying and his asking price is 25K below what he could have had even after paying commissions. He now has about 15 identical units to compete with none of which are selling.

[sdrealtor]

I know Bressi ranch fairly well. I don’t beleive a house in the Wisteria Place neighborhood (the cheapest one there) ever sold in the 800’s. The way Bressi Ranch is laid out with different neighborhoods at different price points often sharing the same street name this might be a cause for some confusion. If you are Zillowing, you are getting bad information because it is only looking at sq footage and room counts. That’s what is probably going on but who knows.

Zillow is pretty useless from my experience. My house shows up on Zillow at 775K when the same model across the street without upgrades or a huge yard like mine sold in the high 800’s 1 year ago. The funniest thing is when I make Zillow adjustments adding a bedroom and 250 sq ft because the tax records Zillow uses are wrong my home goes down in value over 50K.

With that said, there are some relatively great deals going on in Bressi Ranch and it has pretty much crippled resales in the Rancho Carrillo neighborhood next. I know they are doing alot of discounting there and throwing alot of upgrades around. Personally I kind of like the feel of Bressi ranch but there is too much air traffic overhead for me.

[sdrealtor]

I’ve never been busier! Most of my business now comes from referrals and past clients. Have a handful of listings that are nice properties and fairly priced by seller’s leaving the area or moving up/down. They are well prepared for what’s coming. The one’s leaving the area are going cheaper places and will do fine. The one’s staying will have well marketed properties that sell well in today’s market and I’ll make sure they buy even better. If your staying it doesnt much matter because what you have will rise or fall just like what you are buying. They know better than to try to time the market and are fine riding out whatever comes their way. I have several buyer’s I have been working with over a year that really want to be here but I’ve been encouraging them to wait until the tide shifts. They’ll probably be buying in Late Summer/Fall (when more sellers will have no choice but to get real) so they can beat the prospect of another brutal Winter. They are coming from other desirable places and can afford to live here (i.e. cash or mostly cash buyers). I also have some young highly paid professionals that are renting but really want to move on with their lives. We’ll take our time to find exactly what they want and will only buy if we can negotiate what I consider next years prices. BTW, I am not an elitist and my favorite clients (a public utlity worker and his waitress wife who bought an ocean view home 4 years ago from me for about $275,000 in what has become an up and coming area) are the ones who depended upon me most and who I have had the most profound impact upon. However, I’d have a hard time selling them a home today if the situation presented itself.

With alot of education I know better than most and carry the burden of knowing better. I pretty much have called every move of the market 3 to 6 months in advance over the last four years. I never have and never will knowingly sell someone into a situation that will destroy their life. It allows me to sleep well at nite (as long as the kids arent crying over the monitor).

As far as the mortgage goes, my wife left the work force 3 years ago from a well paying career. She recently went back to work 2 days a week and makes more than half what we need to survive. It also gives her a much needed break from being a full time mom.

Most of the people I work with have been around much longer than me and are well positioned to ride out yet another cycle. As for the newbies…..good riddance to most of them. I’ve met alot that I wouldnt trust to clean my house. I fully expect at least 1/3 of the realtors/mortage brokers etc. to be gone from the business by the end of 2007. The ones that remain will be the ones that understand how to get things done. People will allows want to move to SD and those that live here will need to move as their lives change. SD is more transient than most places in nature and will always be a relatively active real estate market.

[sdrealtor]

The data isnt perfect is a huge understatement! It is inherently flawed to a significant degree.

Saws and straps to hold patients down were “the best tools available” to surgeons in the 18th Century. Try as you might to crunch numbers, the best information on what is going on will always come from an honest, ethical, well-educated Realtor who understands the local market. Beleive it or not there are a few of us out here.

I can speak the truth without fear of bringing the market down because I have no stake in it. My mortgage is affordable and will always be. I don’t care whether prices go up or down because I’m not going anywhere for at least 20 years. I represent my clients best interests to the best of my abilities every time as if I were representing my mother. If I can’t earn a living doing so, I’ll suck it up and go back to the corporate world to make at least 50% more than I make now.

[sdrealtor]

Have to disagree on that one Rich as I have my feet on the street as well as my hands on a keyboard unlike you. I’m watching homes that sold in Spring 2004 come back on the market now after 2 years and the same exact house is selling for less in many cases. When I think of homes that I listed and sold in Spring/Summer 2004, I cant think of one that would sell for more today. I know there are always exceptions, but most homes that sold in the peak of the frenzy (Feb 2004 through June 2004) would have a hard time selling for the same price today.

[sdrealtor]

I wouldnt say the MLS isnt concerned with giving accurate data. A more accurate statement would be that the MLS is incapable of giving accurate data because it would be extraordinarily difficult to compile accurate summary statistics.

[sdrealtor]

Good analogy! If you try to apply pure economic and financial concepts to understand home prices….you never will. This is a good site with one major fundamental flaw. Rich says “In God We Trust. Everyone Else Bring Data”. The data sucks! There is no such thing as good data in home sales because there is no consistency in reporting or data collection. We are also comparing a constantly changing asset. One of the major reasons the median has been rising the last two years is that larger/newer homes are now in the mix of resales. There was very little building between 1985 and 1997. Since 1997 there has been a building boom of newer larger homes. What we are seeing in the stats is different (i.e. more newer and larger)homes selling not increasing prices. make no mistake about. Home prices peaked in April/May of 2004. The data also includes top producing high volume agents refreshing their listings every 45 to 60 days. Average market times if you add the previous failed listings are probably closer to 80 days not the 55 to 60 days you see quoted. These are just a few of the many problems with the data.

[sdrealtor]

The “safe and secure comment” was anything but condescending. If you can rent the same home for 20 years and have your children grow up on the same street with same neighbors you’ve accomplished the same thing. It’s just a little harder to do when you dont own the house.

Emotions and pride prevent people from making good decisions. When buying a good decision is not to over pay or get yourself in over your head. When selling in a declining market a good decision is to take your lumps now and get out before it gets worse. Most will hold on as long as they can whne they shouldnt. A good percentage will find a way to maintain the outward appearance of their diginity and will survive the bumpy ride. Of course, some will fail also.

Have you never fallen in love with a stock and not sold when you knew you should have?

[Author]

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