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sdrealtor
ParticipantHe’s my quote word for word “A quick thought….do you think the decline in the percentage of homes selling under 500K had anything to do with alot of homes that sold between 475K and 500K last year now selling for 501K to 525K? I don’t know whether this is happening but it just points out how careful you need to be when reading anything into published statisitics.”
I asked a question which I do not know the answer to. It would be extraordinarily difficult to answer it. I understand how real estate data is collected and reported. Trust me, I understand it far better than your pal Bob and it is far far from perfect! I asked the question to get you all to think a little harder. When you hear something you disagree with you are quick to attack it and question its validity. When you hear something you agree with you give it a pass as the gospel. I encourage you to question EVERYTHING, that which you agree with as well as that which you do not agree with.
As for spying on Bob? Are you kidding me? That is information any one could find out rather easily. Spying is not necessary. Too much of people’s real estate decisions are based upon perception and not the truth. I speak the truth. You relied on your perceptions and then promoted him as something he is not. I dont blame you for being fooled…there is a lot of fooling going on out there. Bob Casagrande is one of many trying to pass themselves off as some sort of expert. The sum total of his knowledge comes from analyzing and interpreting poorly compiled data. Real knowledge comes from experience. I am not here trolling for clients. I have been complimented several times and asked for contact info, websites etc. I have never contacted one of these people nor will I. I am here to learn more about the market psychology and to provide balance to some very one sided opinions. Bob is trying to buy clients by being perceived as an experienced knowledgable Realtor. He spends a tidy sum doing so and obviously has had a very poor return on his investment. Pretty much the only thing I spend money on is to promote my clients property in ways I believe will directly help sell it not to get more listings. You will never see my face on a shopping cart nor a website no one every really goes to (realtor.com is the only place I spend money on the net because it directly helps drive traffic to my listings).
Here are a few tips when dealing with Realtors.
1. Look them up on the CA DRE website. Its http://www.dre.ca.gov Ask them how long they have been in the business and see whether they lie to you. Inexperience is not as bad as lying in my book.
2. Ask them how many transactions they have done in the last two years. If they havent done many, you will be one your own for alot of tough issues.
3. Do they own their own home? There are a very high percentage who have never owned a home. This may be due to them not making enough to buy one (i.e. no experience) not beleiving in the market (then why are they selling something they dont beleive in). But here’s the biggest problem. There are a lot of issues that come with home ownership (repairs, maintenance etc.). It’s kind of like asking someone with no children what its like to be a parent.
3. Ask for at least 5 references. You don’t even need to contact them. If they cant provide them quickly…run away.
4. Ask them what they will specifically do to sell your property. Too many practice the 3 P’s…Put a sign up, put it in the MLS and Pray! There are lots of things smart creative minds can do to help sell your home. If they dont have approaches beyond those 3, you might as well just list with a discounter like Help U Sell and save the money.I could go one and on but most importantly ask questions and demand truthfullness. You deserve it!
ParticipantYeah Bob’s a great guy and an experienced Realtor. He’s seen it all! Funny, I never heard of him…….
OOOPPPPSS Just checked the CA DRE Licensee Website and it appears he’s been licensed all of 2.5 years.
DOUBLE OOOOPPPSSS….In his stellar real estate career he has 1 listing sold (yes you read that correctly!) and is currently in escrow on his second career sale. Well at least he has time to write about all the things he’s never personally done. Yeah….that’s the kind of guy I want representing me. To quote powayseller “A TRUE PROFESSIONAL”…LOL
ParticipantA quick thought….do you think the decline in the percentage of homes selling under 500K had anything to do with alot of homes that sold between 475K and 500K last year now selling for 501K to 525K? I don’t know whether this is happening but it just points out how careful you need to be when reading anything into published statisitics.
ParticipantJust a few randon thoughts:
Speaker you are right on target and echo my intentions exactly. It’s easy to attack someone unjustifiably while being anonomous. Powayseller found it easy to do so to me and I wanted to show her how it felt as well as let her know that she’s not as anonomous as she thinks. Civility should always rule the day.
Powayseller-my attack was to show you how I felt and I think I proved my point. I immediately posted a second post to let you know my intentions and never posted any personal information as I have no intention of revealing your identity. The information i posted wasnt wrong, it was what was in the public records which I clearly pointed out. I suspected it was incorrect (as it often is) and was trying to get under your skin. I have apologized for doing so and apologize once again. I do find a couple things incongruent about you. I have never met a “Social Butterfly” that focuses on such solitary pursuits as reading, running and trolling the internet while being content living in what could be considered the middle of nowhere for several years. Also advertising your home as located in Poway because it is the Poway School district is akin to advertising a Carmel Valley Home as being located in Del Mar, a University City Home as being in La Jolla or a Southwest Escondido Home as being in Rancho Santa Fe. It’s inaccurate, plain and simple.
Seasoned successful realtors understand that our role is as facilitators between buyers and sellers. Our job is to provide maximum exposure to the market, negotiate on behalf of our clients, explain the legal responsibilities of the client and most importantly work with the other agent to bring the buyers and sellers to a place where both are satisfied being. Sure there are some “hotshots” running around in leased fancy cars, with big hair and big sunglasses, pictures that must have been taken at their high school prom and running around like their **** doesnt stink but they are kidding themselves that they had anything to do with their clients making money. Anyone that bought real estate between 1997 and 2002 looks and feels like a genius. They had the good fortune of good timing. I am one of those that feel fortunate to have nothing more than good timing.
Lastly, my neighbors and son’s friends are supportive because we’ve been together for 7 years and expect to be here for another 15 to 20 years. There are 3 or 4 long time rental homes on my street purchased by astute investors who have 30 yr fixed mortgages, positive cash flows and will own them forever. The tenants come and go every year or two and the neighborhood rarely gets to know them. I’ve met several of them and my son played with one of the neighbors yesterday. They are a very nice family and I dont think anyone else in the neighborhood even knows their names. If something happened to one of them, my family would reach out to them because my wife is a social butterfly. I doubt anyone else would.
ParticipantI already offered it and I offer it again. Here is part of my frustration, you seem to be blaming realtors for this mess when it is in fact the general public that is to blame as much or more. I read your posts as to why anyone would not sell and it seems to me that you view a house as a finacial instrument. I do not, I view it as a home filled with love and surrounded by a community which I support and which siupports my family. You seem to have missed out on the community part and it appears as though you are attempting to find it on this board. My advice, take the time and independence you have gained by selling your home for a large cash profit, walk away from the keyboard and spend more time out in the community. You are surrounded by many warm and caring people that are what make this country great.
As for me, I will probably be checking out for a while. I just got some very bad news about one of my children and if tommorrows visit to Children’s confirms things, I will have a young child immoblized in a wheel chair for the next couple years to heal an ortopaedic condition. The fact that we are surrounded by wonderful friends and neighbors that will be there to support us and that my child will have the support of his long time friends means more than any capital gain I could have realized by living a nomadic life.
Peace to you and I wish you all only the best!
ParticipantIf most people in SD sold who would buy their houses?As for the minds at Anderson/UCLA my favorite story comes from a colleague of mine. Those brilliant minds made a presentation to his company 2 months before the last crash in the early 1990’s and said that CA was recession proof and that real estate never went down. Unfortunately, he listened to them and lost everything he had. He’s still trying to recover.
ParticipantI agree there is much incompetence in my profession. I see it every day. I also see it in just about every other profession. The only way to survive with a flat fee structure is very high volume. Unfortunately, you will have to pay your employees very little and the competence level would get worse. With volume falling you wont be able to do the high volume part. Sorry but flat fee structures are already here and they are struggling mightily.
By the way Powayseller, sorry for the attack. I’m sure you have good explanation. Just wanted you to see what it feels like to be attacked by someone unjustly
ParticipantI have no voice in the media as no one ever asked me but I have consistently voiced my concerns to my piers and my clients. The answer if its a good time to buy really depends upon when it was asked and what the individuals specific reasons are. For some the answer was yes. For many, the answer was no. I have about 6 clients that I have discouraged from buying. They are waiting on the sidelines per my recommendation and will buy when the time is right. You know nothing about me and your inferred attacks are unwarranted. gFear of getting priced out was never a good reason to buy and I’ve never sold a home to a client for that reason. All my clients buy homes for their families to live in and I’ve never serviced the investor market.
Its clear you despise realtors and blame them for rising prices. When a house sells for too little it’s the realtors fault, when prices skyrocket you blame realtors. You truly give us too much credit. This is America and it is a free market economy. Supply and demand drive prices. Excess demand sent prices up and excess supply are now bringing them down. Sorry but I dont have the ability to manipulate prices. Do you despise car dealers for selling over priced luxury vehicles that depreciate 30% the minute you drive them off the lot? Do you despise the fast food restaurants that are poisoning our children? Do you really beleive a major crash will “benefit ALL of us” or just the folks out there that got out and are hoping to buy back in at lower prices. Do you really beleive widespread foreclosures and bankruptcies would be for the greater good? I for one do not wish that on anyone.
Sorry for the rant, but you back me in a corner and I’ll come out swinging………
ParticipantPowayseller you should feel guilty about the sale of your home. You find it easy to attack me, my ethics and my profession. How do you justify selling a “Poway Home” with a Lakeside mailing address (per the tax records) and advertising it as having 2293 sq ft when its listed in the tax records at 1658 sq ft? It was advertised as 1658 sq ft when you bought it in 2000. Perhaps there are unpermitted additions but I don’t see them mentioned anywhere in the listing. Of course, you probably emphasized that is was “quality construction” and “built to code” after pulling a buyer in under the false pretense of a larger home. How did that feel? How do you sleep at night?
ParticipantWebsites are often wrong. The prices listed for Wisteria Place are anticiapted pricing starting in the low 800’s while while Primose Point which has higher priced, nicer, larger homes on larger lots says they are anticipated to start in the upper 700’s. Clearly the reference to Wisteria Place pricing is erroneous.
ParticipantLast time I checked a 13% decline or even a 5 to 10% decline sounds like alot to me. Frankly, I still have a hard time beleiving a Wisteria Place home sold for 875K. The only explanation I can see is that it was a model home. A lot of the information on the Bressi Ranch sales flip flopped between Wisteria Place (the cheapest neighborhood) and Heather Court (the 3rd most expensive neighborhood after WP and Primrose Point)which share the same street names and are located adjacent to each. Many of the sales refereed to were in Heather Court where prices where considerably higher and homes much nicer. If you haven’t been there, Wisteria Place homes are essentially dettached townhomes with garages behind the homes accessed via shared alleys. The have no driveways and no backyards (really!) and are priced lower because of that. Heather Court homes are you more traditional house with backyards, driveways accessing your garage.
Frankly, i’m not trying to make it sound anyway…..just reporting the facts. We all have opinions as to what is going to happen (and I share many of yours) but they are opinions. Some will be right and some will be wrong. Forbes Magazine had a cover story in 2002 that really estate prices were going to crash and that no one should buy real estate. It was their opinion. Those that didnt listen experienced rapid appreciation and the opportunity to take advantage of 30 yr fixed rate refinancing in the low 5%’s. They will give back some or all of that appreciation but they will keep their 5% fixed rate mortgages if they were smart enough to get them….I did!
I do not promote myself as a financial expert forecaster, it’s just not part of my job. My job is to help people who want to purchase a home find the best one for tthem and to get them the best possible price and terms. Housing is a basic need and everyone needs it. If everyone decided to rent there would be people on the streets as there isnt enough rental property out there. Furthermore, most people would not be happy living in a property they dont an ownership interest in. I encourage people to buy what they truly need, what they truly can afford today and to finance in such a manner that they will not be faced with rising mortgage payments they might not be able to afford. If they say they a merely looking to buy to make money, I express my opinion that its unlikely to happen anytime soon.
ParticipantDo you think the reason you missed the market and got $780K has anything to do with the fact that your Help-U-Sell agent initially overpriced the property at $850K when the market was a little better? (pretty resourceful….huh)
Participantlendingbubbleco,
I’m as bearish as the next and have been since I saw what happened in Spring 2004. I just want to make sure the facts are not misrepresented. Your Insight as shown by the headline of this thread is a 25% decline in Bressi Ranch whhich is clearly hyperbole. If you already live here and are invested in the area the house you buy will likely fare about the same probably better (if you buy new) than what you currently have. If you living situation changes (need more or less room, different job location, promotion etc.) why not move? Now if you are coming to the area with new money to invest in a home, that’s a little different.FYI…models are very overdone and frequently have $100 to 200K in additional upgrades. I’d never buy one but know clients that have lots of money and don’t care. All they want is a designer perfect move-in ready house. Different strokes for……
ParticipantGreat Info Bugs,
To summarize:
Everythings Included from Lennar doesnt mean you cant spend more than these nicely appointed homes come with. Flooring which isnt included can easily vary by $50K or more.The highest sales were models which were very well appointed and are likely outliers pricewise as they are in most cases.
The real decline in these homes based upon builder concessions looks to be about $70,000 which is a roughly 10% discount. Additional financing concessions and free upgrades could push this up higher and its not out of the question for the discount to be closer to $100,000.
As a point of comparison, I have seen 5 to 10% declines in the value of many resale homes (particularly those sold at the peak of the frenzy Feb 2004 – May 2004) also so this seems to be on target with what is going on around here and perhaps slightly ahead of the curve.
Sorry but no 25% Off Fire Sales……..YET?
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