[sdrealtor]

2nd week of march

New 11 (11) –

Pending 27 (14) –

Thats -16

Closed 12 (7) –

Total houses on the market 71 (51 last year) with a median of 2.795M (2.195M). Two years ago we were at 31 and in 2021 we were at 52.

A big week for pending’s! A drop in new listings! I think it was a bit of an anomaly as it doesn’t feel different out here. I expect things to go back to where they were in the next week or two. Nonetheless that surge in pendings was seasonal demand stepping up. Lets see what happens through the next two weeks

[sdrealtor]

sorry just saw that. I think its a bit of everything. With rates where they are cash heavy buyers are more the rule. Demand is relatively muted but supply is also. WE are operating mostly in balance here. if we got a surge of inventory we could be in a bit of trouble but that doesn’t appear to be on the horizon and rates will gradually drift down over the next year or two so the party looks like it will continue in this range.

[sdrealtor]

week 3 in March

New listings 7 (2) –

New Pendings of 6 (7)

Thats +1

Closed sales at 6 (2)

Total houses for sale 6 (7) with median of $1.15M (1.15M). There were 3 on the market 2 years ago and 7 in 2021.

More of the same

[sdrealtor]

week 2 in March

New listings 4 (4) –

New Pendings of 5 (3)

Thats -1

Closed sales at 1 (7)

Total houses for sale 4 (12) with median of $1.125M (1.05M). There were 8 on the market 2 years ago and 6 in 2021.

This market continues to show strength

[sdrealtor]

Do I need to remind you that you were the one to resurrect this thread this week?

Are we a threat to your livelihood because you sure aren’t of mine.

First some truth from you. You left for lifestyle (your kids) and lower cost of living. There is nothing to be ashamed of for doing that but just the same no reason to throw the place that gave you the abundance under the bus.

Next some selective data from you. My data is very accurate and up to date!

Yes prices are up y-o-y but that’s because you are comparing to the late 2022 flash crash prices.

Lets look at current trends. In Nov 2023 the median there was $580K and in February it was only $485! You are in the middle of a stunning reversal of fortune!! April data may well show you down y-o-y once its available

More importantly sales volume is dropping while inventory is rapidly growing. That is what happens as market downturn begins and yours is showing all the signs of that.

Hat tip for the anecdotal “data point” from a random realtor!

Its interesting that you cite rising cost of living there aka increasing rents as a good thing in SG and a sign of market strength. Yet here it is a problem? Rental properties here rarely have vacancies and rents are here also

I dont know who Kevin Kostner is but hope its a good thing. However if its Kevin Costner you were refencing say hello for me. My ex girlfriend dated him when he was between marriages for a bit. She broke up with him because all he did was sit around smoking dope all day and never wanted to do anything fun. I guess he’ll like it out there staring stoned at the landscape.

As for property values. Of course homes are cheaper there! The land is virtually worthless while here it is extraordinarily valuable. I’m sure you know this but land is what appreciates in real estate. A house depreciates over time so that is yet another thing that will hurt SG going forward as they will be swimming upstream forever on that.

I take pride in a great world class city with a world class university that is a world leader in the industries of the future as opposed to place populated with slaughterhouses and construction workers that will be out of work in the first downturn.

Nothing about the data suggests that current trends in SG will continue. nothing.

[sdrealtor]

“Tens of thousands of residents moved out of San Diego County last year–almost double the number a year ago.”

Gosh, I wonder why.
To escape this thread?

 

LOL this is the gift that keeps giving

[sdrealtor]

Sales volume is up big time in San Diego. In St George it is Falling! Cracks in the foundation

[sdrealtor]

SG market is rated 18 for Not very competitive

https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-George/housing-market

SD market is rated 82 for Hot very competitive

https://www.redfin.com/city/16904/CA/San-Diego/housing-market

[sdrealtor]

People leave when it gets more expensive whether it be to cash out or that they cant afford it. The winners stay and the losers head to places like St George where the market is deteriorating by the day. Then prices equalize at some point and they come pouring back in. This is nothing new in SD. This place has so much inherently going for it that it will always be an aspirational place to live. If prices became more affordable the population would go crazy and in due time it will again. Lather rinse repeat

Ill work on a SG data update when I get the chance

[sdrealtor]

Just saw this and looked back on my prediction and most of it remains in place.

I expected NAR to fight more but they rolled over and settled. Got that one wrong

Doesnt impact me much. Still the same. Its just theater to me at this point in my career

Impact will be felt mostly by buyers who will have a tougher go at getting quality representation. Still to TBD but Im still firm on this and them being among the losers

Sellers wont save much and prices wont change because of this. Still TBD but Im still firm on this. The big winners will be listing agent side that will increasingly be dual agents. With it tougher on buyers prices are less prone to being bid up for sellers. But no seller is gonna drop their price by 10 to 20% or anything because they are saving a percent or two on the commission. Prices will largely stagnate IMO as a stand off continues.

Redfin is more toast than ever as their business is primarily on the buyers side. At some point it should be an aquisition target for one of the big national brokerages.

Zillow is also in trouble as their primary business is selling buyer leads that will increasingly drop in value. They need a major shift in strategy and quickly! MLS associations across the country could become an endangered species and a national MLSlike database is one of their biggest opportunities

Compass will do well as a brokerage as they are on the listing side primarily but the stock isnt going anywhere. Real estate brokerage continues to be a low margin business and the tech company masquerade is over for them along with Redfin.

The size of the agent population will get crushed. There are tons of aging realtors hanging on for one last deal. Most will finally hang it up as not worth the hassle. The young high flying agents who thought this was easy? Decaf non fat latte please! The established dorsal finned agents with strong listing businesses will thrive more than ever. Consolidation is coming and half the agents currently out there could and should be gone in the next 2 to 3 years.

Did I leave anyone out?

Oh, property values will be just fine around here. There will be ebbs and flows but there is just too much going on around here. The cost of living has chased a higher number of residents out the last year but eventually things come back into balance and they will come back in droves. There is just too much to love about here and so many aspire to be here.

Cheers all!

 

[sdrealtor]

first week of march

New 25 (15) –

Pending 22 (16) –

Thats +3

Closed 13 (16) –

Total houses on the market 81 (49 last year) with a median of 2.595M (2.388M). Two years ago we were at 25 and in 2021 we were at 42.

Inventory slowly building but demand is steady. Market is softening but not much. Two years ago prices were exploding but now they are holding steady at close to Spring 2022 peak prices.  Next few weeks we’ll see if inventory builds or demand starts to pick up as it should seasonally

[sdrealtor]

first week in March

New listings 3 (3) –

New Pendings of 7 (5)

Thats -4

Closed sales at 6 (7)

Total houses for sale 5 (11) with median of $950k (1.05M). There were 4 on the market 2 years ago and 6 in 2021.

This market only seems to be getting stronger

[sdrealtor]

Forgot to post week 4 of Feb last week. Here it is

New 20 (8) –

Pending 19 (19) –

Thats +1

Closed 17 (9) –

Total houses on the market 76 (49 last year) with a median of 2.45M (2.5M). Two years ago we were at 31 and in 2021 we were at 53.

New listings continue at a higher pace than last year but things are selling also at roughly the same pace as new listings. We are getting some inventory build but are heading into what should be the strongest demand cycle of the year. The market continues to feel balanced with the good ones priced right going quickly but the ones pushing price are sitting

[sdrealtor]

Thats one opinion I certainly do not share. I expect prices to largely moderate as incomes catch up over the next decade or so. Those currently locked out of the market are rightfully pessimistic and it sucks being born at the wrong time but this area will do just fine and eventually normalize back to more reasonable valuations.

[sdrealtor]

I got experience as trustee for my mother starting about 15 years until she passed. I learned there is nothing more unsettling for a relatively conservative investor than spending down the assets you have accumulated over a lifetime. I built her a very strong high quality dividend stock portfolio along with using some government bonds and income funds. It served her very well and she lived off the income while it continued appreciating for her heirs (my siblings and I). When she passed it was carved up 4 ways and while we have each done some tweaking over the last 4 years in each of our portfolios it has continued to perform well. She would never believe what its grown to become

 

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