4 Reasons San Diego RE has gone Up

[powayseller]

I thought prices rose slower in 2005, peaked in Aug 2005, and have gone down slowly since then. I’d say about 5-10% down from August 2005. That would explain why prices are back to 2004 levels – 2005 was not a year of big gains.

I had 2 offers on my house in Nov and Dec 2005, and both offers were 5% below an Aug 2005 comp. There were 2 houses for sale at that time, that were my competition: one was just withdrawn (2 expired listing, this 3rd is withdrawn), and the other is still listed after 6 months without reductions. So I experienced the 5% drop firsthand. If the market in my area of Poway dropped 5% between Aug 2005 and Nov/Dec 2005, I can only guess it dropped another 5% in the following 4 months.

Also, each area is unique. Some areas of SD are still going up, some are going down faster.

I’m glad we have a realtor on this site now, since the Dataquick and NAR data is 2 months lagging, and doesn’t tell us the story behind the numbers.

[powayseller]

Has the sales slowdown affected you? You have a mortgage you can handle even in a slowdown? This seems a worrisome time to be in the real estate, mortgage, appraisal, title, or construction business.

Perhaps you have a solid customer base already. How do you see the future for the Real Estate profession in San Diego? Do you think most of the people who joined the RE profession in the last few years will go back to their previous jobs?

[sdrealtor]

I’ve never been busier! Most of my business now comes from referrals and past clients. Have a handful of listings that are nice properties and fairly priced by seller’s leaving the area or moving up/down. They are well prepared for what’s coming. The one’s leaving the area are going cheaper places and will do fine. The one’s staying will have well marketed properties that sell well in today’s market and I’ll make sure they buy even better. If your staying it doesnt much matter because what you have will rise or fall just like what you are buying. They know better than to try to time the market and are fine riding out whatever comes their way. I have several buyer’s I have been working with over a year that really want to be here but I’ve been encouraging them to wait until the tide shifts. They’ll probably be buying in Late Summer/Fall (when more sellers will have no choice but to get real) so they can beat the prospect of another brutal Winter. They are coming from other desirable places and can afford to live here (i.e. cash or mostly cash buyers). I also have some young highly paid professionals that are renting but really want to move on with their lives. We’ll take our time to find exactly what they want and will only buy if we can negotiate what I consider next years prices. BTW, I am not an elitist and my favorite clients (a public utlity worker and his waitress wife who bought an ocean view home 4 years ago from me for about $275,000 in what has become an up and coming area) are the ones who depended upon me most and who I have had the most profound impact upon. However, I’d have a hard time selling them a home today if the situation presented itself.

With alot of education I know better than most and carry the burden of knowing better. I pretty much have called every move of the market 3 to 6 months in advance over the last four years. I never have and never will knowingly sell someone into a situation that will destroy their life. It allows me to sleep well at nite (as long as the kids arent crying over the monitor).

As far as the mortgage goes, my wife left the work force 3 years ago from a well paying career. She recently went back to work 2 days a week and makes more than half what we need to survive. It also gives her a much needed break from being a full time mom.

Most of the people I work with have been around much longer than me and are well positioned to ride out yet another cycle. As for the newbies…..good riddance to most of them. I’ve met alot that I wouldnt trust to clean my house. I fully expect at least 1/3 of the realtors/mortage brokers etc. to be gone from the business by the end of 2007. The ones that remain will be the ones that understand how to get things done. People will allows want to move to SD and those that live here will need to move as their lives change. SD is more transient than most places in nature and will always be a relatively active real estate market.

[seniormoment]

SDrealtor, you are a good salesman, I like what I hear, you sounds honest, do you have a website? Like to know you more so I may acquire you as my agent someday, no website, no hard feeling 🙂

[powayseller]

When you say you’ve never been busier, I know you are getting many more listings. You’re a great realtor, so you will get those referrals and repeat clients. Of course, even those who are new in the business are getting more listings, as inventory is up many times over last year.

Are you closing on your listings at the same rate as last year or 2005, or is there a slight slowdown? I read there is a 20% or 30% drop in sales, so is your income also down 20% – 30%? I know this is a personal question, and you may not wish to answer. OTOH, if everyone’s income drops for awhile, and the newbies leave the business, then the stronger can go on, right?

With more listings, and fewer buyers, the key is to work with a buyer who will bite, or to list a house priced right. It’s difficult to get that seller to list his house at the “right price”, since they hold out for what their neighbor got last fall.

[sdrealtor]

Actually there seems to be a flight to quality going on now. Seller’s are recognizing the value of an experienced strong agent and more of the listings seem to be going that way. As for my listings, some are selling quickly and some are taking longer. I am very picky and strongly encourage my buyer’s to buy homes with the thought they will be selling it one day. I look for what I call great real estate (big yards, privacy, nice floor plans, views, location, no power lines or busy roads etc.) The last home I listed for a former buyer client sold in less than one week about a month ago for a record price. SD is a wonderful place and great homes will always sell and they will sell faster and for more. If the markets declining that is particularly important because the sooner you can get your house in escrow the better.

I am on pace to make more this year. I have only had one listing not sell within 120 days in my career. It happened one year and I got the seller a great all cash offer on a tough to sell property the first week. I found the investor at a networking meeting I was at. I begged the seller to take it and he was very obstinant. After 90 days of trying we mutually agreed to part ways and he went FSBO. One year later, he is is still trying and his asking price is 25K below what he could have had even after paying commissions. He now has about 15 identical units to compete with none of which are selling.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry no website. Dont beleive in them. the only website worth anything is Realtor.com which is where my $$ goes. I only spend money trying to sell my listings. You will never see my face on a shopping cart or bustop. Many realtors spend alot of money on personal promotion. I prefer a low profile and working with clients I like. Thats the beauty of this business. If I dont like someone, I can fire them as a client. I’ve done it a few times.

[Bugs]

SDRealtor,

Just out of curiosity, how long have you been in the business?

[sdrealtor]

Though I sold my first house in late 1999, I’m entering my 5th year full time in the biz. I have followed it closely much longer because real estate has always fascinated me.

[powayseller]

I think Josh asked the question because you stated you had only one house which was on the market over 120 days. I expect most houses to be on the market that long, unless you can convince the seller to price it right. You’re more astute than most realtors. However, your experience working in real estate has been only in the good times, and that’s about to change. How you adapt determines if you will be one of the survivors.

SdRealtor, when you entered the profession, there were about 300,000 realtors in CA. Today, we have over 470,000 realtors.

As sales volume declines, many realtors will leave the profession. Still, there’ll be a smaller pool of realtors chasing a smaller pool of homes for sale. Those homes are falling in value, decreasing the commission. As homes fall in value, sellers will seek out agents who charge lower commission. I used Help-U-Sell, and paid 3.5%. My agent was fabulous! I suspect with the federal suit/investigation into realtor commission price fixing, eventually the market will become competitive in commissions. I see the job market for realtors changing, and it’s necessary to adapt.

So, how long will it take for all those who entered the profession in the last few years to leave, how will the remaining ones survive, and how can you get sellers to set a reasonable price? As lending standards tighten, how can you keep finding buyers? Have you networked with those in the biz since the 70’s, to learn from their experience of dealing with a down market? I suspect you will survive, but only if you can succeed in a down market.

I don’t mean to single you out Sdrealtor. We had a discussion a few days ago about outsourcing, and a few people in the software industry voiced concern about losing their jobs to China.

We each have to consider the threats to our livelihood, so since this is a housing bubble site, I’m interested in how the slowdown is affecting realtors.

[sdrealtor]

No problem powayseller and I appreciate the exchange of thoughts. I work in an office (yes I actually go into my office everyday) surrounded by people that have been in the business for over 20 years. I hear the stories and have a fairly good idea of what can come down the line.
I’m a very analytical guy. My way of working with sellers is to do alot of analysis and provide them accurate data as to what is going on and what the trends are. Since most of my clients are well educated they can follow the data I provide them. Ultimately the choice as to how much risk they are willing to take is up to them but providing them an accurate picture is what I do best.
Interestingly, commissions seem to be trending up not down. While Help-U-sell and the other similar iterations of it have some good brokers most are pretty bad from what I see. I refer to the local guys in my area as Help-u-not-sell. Their success rates and falling and many of their claims are misleading. They post commission savings based upon 6% commission rates when 5% has been the market standard for the last 2 to 3 years. When you use someone like them you are saving 1 to 1.5% but generally end up with a overly priced property that is poorly marketed. When i take a listing, I invest about $1,000 the first week of my own money and continue spending on things that I know can directly influence the sale of said property. If it doesnt sell I lose. If the pay as you go, high volume guy fails you lose particularly in a softening market. The old timers tell me the discounters come and go every boom market. Without volume they perish and volume is declining. Real estate is nowhere near as profitable as the general public beleives and a very small % of realtors earn a decent living (over $50,000 net). Profitable real estate brokerages are even rarer from what I have heard. The big brokerages make their profits off ancillary services not real estate commissions.
As for me and my livelihood, I’m a pretty crafty guy. I am always on the lookout for business opportunities and am currently working on two small business ideas (one RE related and one retail business). I keep my costs low, live beneath my means and look forward to watching my children grow into good citizens of the world!

[sdrealtor]

[quote=sdrealtor]Rich,
Let me begin by saying I have firmly been bearish on RE prices since late 2003. While there is no hard data this is what I have see anecdotally.

Demographic Change
Lots of high income people moving to the area who work from home and/or renting office suites. This wont show up in any booming new business or local hiring. Older long time retirees with most of their assets in their homes cashing out and moving to cheaper locales. Wealthier retirees with substantial assets replacing them. Net effect is retiree population stays flat while the composition changes.

Changes to SD
Rich, you really need to get out more. I just spent a nite at the Westin Horton Plaza to get away from the kiddies for a night and was astounded at how the city has changed. The very cosmopolitan city I found was a far cry from the ghost town I caroused during pub crawls in the mid-90’s before getting hitched. Drive around Carlsbad/Encinitas where I moved in 1997 and It is unrecognizable today. Good Restaurants back then were Taco Shops and a good dinner required a drive south to Del Mar or Downtown. Not any more! I grew up back east and SD might have well been on Mars when i told my friends I was moving out here in 1992. Now every one in the USA know what SD is about!

Not that this justifies the price spikes we’ve seen but they certainly are a major factor in rising prices and shouldnt be discounted. As you know, RE is sold on the margin and while every house on my street couldnt sell for close to a $1M, one or two a year can. For the record, I think prices will return to 2003 levels and then settle there for a few years.[/quote]

Here you go Larry. My very first post and I put it on the record!

“ For the record, I think prices will return to 2003 levels and then settle there for a few years.”

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRSA

Sure looks like prices went down to about 2003 levels and settled there for a few years

I was actually pretty spot on but then again when wasn’t I?

[barnaby33]

I was actually pretty spot on but then again when wasn’t I?

At church, 2 weeks ago.
Josh

[sdrealtor]

[quote=barnaby33]

I was actually pretty spot on but then again when wasn’t I?

At church, 2 weeks ago.
Josh[/quote]

LOL

DB is turning 65 next Saturday. Gonna host a little dinner. Grab the Mrs and your neighbor and join us. Will see what I can do to make amends

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=sdrealtor]Rich, you really need to get out more.[/quote]

Well, you nailed that one.

[Author]

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