Median Price Down in North County

[powayseller]

Median price is down from $610K in March to $577K for the current pendings.

The median LIST price is $577,000 of the last 239 listings that went pending.

(The median sales price March 2006 was $610,000 of the 258 closings.)

It’s going to take that kind of price adjustment to get, and keep, the buyers enthusiastic – of the 98 closed in April so far the median sales price is $629,000, which means April’s median sales price will probably be the highest we’ll see this year.

[sdduuuude]

I couldn’t be more confused by this article.
I’m not sure who wrote it, but I’m quite certain it wasn’t Rich.

[North County Jim]

If I’m not mistaken, Jim the Realtor only tracks a limted number of zip codes in Carlsbad, Oceanside and Vista. Hence his numbers do not apply to the wider area of north County.

I also agree with sdduuude that his writing makes it difficult to decipher what he’s trying to say. At a glance, he appears to be saying the median sales price is greater than the median listing price. This should make buyers more enthusiastic?

See if you can get some clarification from him. Otherwise, it doesn’t appear to be a relevant data point.

[powayseller]

I thought you guys could figure it out 🙂 Actually, his other writings are much easier to decipher.

What he seems to be saying is that the median sales price for March was $610K (based on 258 Closings), and the median sales price for April will be $577K (based on the 239 most recent Pendings).

On the other hand, April Closings as of today (98 closings)are $629K. Balance that against the fact that Pendings are only $577K, and April could well be the high point for median sales.

He didn’t try to explain why the April Closings so far are so much lower than the April Pendings.

I like reading Jim site now and then, because he analyzes the data, and gives us a 2-month lead time on the NAR and Dataquick reports. I know it’s only a couple zip codes, but with about 250 monthly sales, it does give us a general indication of the SD market.

[sdrealtor]

Don’t read too much into early April stats. Anyone making decent money has spent the last two weeks shuffling receipts and meeting with their CPA. I have a bunch of listings that were each averaging 5 to 7 showings a week. When I left town, I told my higher priced listings to expect a very quiet week. Last week the low priced listings were shown slightly less than average. Of the two higher priced listings, one was shown once and the other had no showings. Both were shown twice today. Tax season is now behind us. The next 4 to 6 weeks will be very very telling as to the health of the market.

[sdduuuude]

But if a small percentage of the pendings close this month, the median price may be up, while the TITLE of the article is “MEDIAN PRICE DOWN”

To summarize, the median from last month to this month is is down, but this month could be the high point of the year.

Complete drivel, if you ask me.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Oh I see….it was TAX SEASON holding back the “spring hope mania” rush to buy homes. Thank God. I was getting worried because I thought it was supposed to have materialized after the SUPER BOWL was over.

We are now a full month into Spring and I don’t see anything that makes me believe that the next two months are going to be any better for sellers.

[BostonAndOC_RE_perspective]

Perhaps they were all busy trying to refi to get enough to cover their tax bill from going EXEMPT to try and bring home enough cash flow to cover their outrageous mortage payments.

[sdrealtor]

Blah, blah, blah! Never said any of the things you are trying to ridicule only that the first two weeks of April are traditionally very slow and that the data is not necessarily representative of what’s going on. If you don’t appreciate straight forward and truthful information about what is actually going on in the trenches your missing out on a vital pice of information. Everything I belive tells me this thing is going down but the market continues to be amazing resilient. In the primary area I track, the number of sales of detached homes through 4/18 are essentially equal to last year. Sure there is a lot more inventory but people are still buying and selling homes every day.

[sdduuuude]

sdrealtor, I don’t think you get enough respect around here. As the coffee mug says – don’t let the turkeys get you down.

I knew exactly what you meant and found it interesting.

I also agree that the market seems amazingly resilient.
I also think the median price figures may be tricking us into thinking it is more resilient than it really is.

D

[uncle_git]

Keep the updates flowing sdrealtor – it’s fascinating stuff.

To be honest I’m not *that* suprised at the market’s resiliance this early in the cycle.

Right now a lot of people still don’t believe in the bubble and are buying houses – buyers are standing firm on their prices and waiting on the “spring market” to sell their houses.

Which is fine – but it’s not going to clear that inventory before winter that’s for sure – and as the median YOY price trickles down towards 0 or negative it’s going to make more and more buyers hold off.

I suspect panic will start towards the winter slowdown when all that inventory sitting there realize that the market is down YOY and they “have” to get out before winter or more then likely they’ll be waiting for next spring – when prices are constantly falling.

[ocrenter]

There’s certainly evidence of price decrease if you check prior purchase prices and the current asking prices of same exact detached homes with same yard size and same floor plans.

for example.

1xxx7 Manassas St, San Diego, CA 92127
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2.5
Sq ft: 1,931
prior sales price: $640,000
sale date: 11/2005

1xxx9 Manassas St, San Diego, CA 92127
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 2.5
Sq ft: 1,931
current asking: $600,000 – $630,000
listing date: 11/05
Price Reduced: 11/30/05 — $649,900 to $615,000
Price Reduced: 04/01/06 — $615,000 to $600,000

same model, same small yard, the one on sale actually has granite countertop, wood flooring. Asking price is $40,000 lower than the one that sold 5 months ago and still no taker. Is the median in North County dropping? I think so.

[an]

How about this one, which is even bigger:
1xxx3 Manassas St, San Diego, CA 92127
Bedrooms: 3
Baths: 3
Sq ft: 2,043
current asking: $599,900 – $629,000
listing date: 04/12/05

[docteur]

Lot/view premiums can make a huge difference. Maybe that’s at play here? In my north county subdivision (about three years old) view premiums and or lot size/location can account for up to $ 200,000 difference in the resale pricing for basically the same home (upgrades, etc.)

Lot improvement can vary substantially also. I have seen $ 50,000 yards and $ 250,000 yards with the same home in my subdivision.

[an]

That make sense. However, if you take a look at these house on this street, you’ll noticed they’re probably the exactly same sq-ft lot +/- couple of sq-ft. Also, since all 3 have an odd # for the address, all three have the same view. So, both of those factors shouldn’t affect the price in this case. You can use Zillow to see what I’m talking about. I just checked all the house on the street, and basically, the house i posted about and the house that was sold last year is right next to each other.

[Author]

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