UT Sunday Home Section article “Is there a buble? Do the math”

[Farls]

Boston,
Good response. Nice to have you onboard.

Farls

[BostonAndOC_RE_perspective]

Poway,
I think many sectors are, though none I feel qualified to comment on beyond telecom. In general, the increases in productivity aided by the technological leaps of the past 10 years with the internet, Moore’s law, ERP software and the ability to work virtually anywhere have fueled profit and reveue growth without necessitating extra hiring. Yet many of them (especially in high tech) surreptitously use their $$$ for open market purchases of their own stock to mop up the millions of options they’ve given out. This is one of the ugly truths of the tech bubble. There was a good article in the Sunday NY Times ~ 1 month ago on it.

I’m no economist, so I’ll need to think about your question. Looking at my company’s stock, it boomed during a time of high interest rates, depressed RE and lackluster job growth throughout the early 90’s (and al the way through). Our earnings are driven by consumer and business spending. In general it seems we do well after a Fed tightening cycle, historically speaking. I guess you could say we’re somewhat cyclical.

I wish that I had the time to pursue an advanced degree. My boss wants me to get an executive MBA (company pays) but I am loathe to invest the time away from my family. I look at our top sales mgt (5K person sales org), and none of them have MBAs – just bachelors degrees. However if I ever want to run a P&L, I’ll need it for sure.

The one thing I will always teach my son is that no matter how many fortunes one makes and loses, no one can take away your education. The memories of my college years and all the experiences entailed are priceless.

[speaker]

Submitted by BostonAndOC_RE_… on April 17, 2006 – 5:32pm

“At the end of the day, its all about jobs, and OC and SD are sorely lacking in high paying professional job creation.”

exactly…..and this fact alone will bite many people in the arse as RE corrects itself.

The Mrs. and I moved down here from SF a couple of years back for a change of lifestyle and for new work opportunities. We are both college educated and we knew before coming here we were going to take a pay cut. In my field, without an advanced degree (PhD) I cannot exceed past a certain point both professionally and in salary. But this doesn’t bother us because we moved here to raise our family where there is a sense of community; something that was sorely missing from the Bay Area. SF is an absolute sewer, but I digress….

I am at peace with the reality of my career advancement because for the most part I make decent money and I do receive benefits such as stock options, 401k, insurance, and I enjoy a flex schedule. It sucks that the both of us have to work in order to “afford” a house and pay the bills but fortunately for us we have money working in the market that isn’t solely tied to our 401k’s. We save, we pay cash, we go out to dinners, etc.

So where am I going with this? No job is safe and I have always felt that you need to keep the skill sets sharp so you can be ahead of the curve in the working economy. Lately I have been contemplating a career change. I am leaning towards an advanced degree (MS in CS) but I have been hesitant because so far it would be a costly investment with an uncertain return in the fields I would like to go into. For the things that interest me now, an advanced degree would be mostly overkill or I am looking to work in very tiny, niche markets. In the Bay Area I would have almost limitless opportunities but it just isn’t the case here in San Diego. San Diego is desperately lacking in high paying, highly skilled jobs that bless places like the SF Bay Area. They exist of course, just not in the numbers that can adequately justify the current RE prices for San Diego county. I could be wrong about the job market (most likely) but at least that is the impression I have received by perusing the sunday employment section and company websites. And it is definitely the impression I have received by talking to my friends and colleagues who are in similar situations.

“End of line.”

[speaker]

oh and one more thing:
if you think the RE is/was crazy in San Diego these past few years, then I have some stories about RE in SF that are absolute whoppers. That place is a loony bin.

“End of line.”

[powayseller]

Ok, don’t just tease…Give us the stories.

[BostonAndOC_RE_perspective]

speaker,
If I had it all over to do again, I would go to law school. Tech degree + JD = extreme versatility, especially as litigation $$$ over IP zoom skyward.

Good luck on your decisions. Education is always a good investment. Just have a plan to maximize ROI.

Keep hunting. Skilled people are in short supply, but in a place like SD you’ll have to dig and be more aggressive finding the opportunities. Consider the sales side if you have the personality for it. The money is usually better than R&D or product marketing-type jobs, especially if you have a technical degree.

And, sometime in the future, you should check out the Boston area. Its not for everyone, but it does have a vibrant job market similar to Manhattan or SF/SJC. For my money, I’ll take the sunshine, hence my wait for another promotion to open up in SoCal so I can move back with the same great job/company.

[KingKong]

Why OC and SD are sorely lacking in high paying professional job creation?

Welcome Boston! Your insights and experiences adds a lot of substance to this forum.

I want to know your opinion why OC and SD are sorely lacking in high paying professional job creation. My observation is that here people are mostly well educated but we lack big corporations because we have a much shorter history than East coast and SF.

I have over 10 year of software development experience with an advanced degree but got paid barely over 100K. A person with similar experience will get at least 150K in SF or BOS. However, relocation is not an option for me 🙂

[barnaby33]

Thats why the jobs aren’t high paying! -> However, relocation is not an option for me 🙂

Nobody wants to leave here, even if it means less money and more expensive housing. Employers pay what they have to, to get employees (within certain limits.) So this whole debate about jobs and incomes is really a proxy for desireability. How much would Boston’s company have to pay him to move to Minot? You can bet its alot more than 150k.

Josh

[sdrealtor]

Boston and OC
Just curious as to how old you are and how long you’ve been at the corporate sales gig?

[BostonAndOC_RE_perspective]

Kong,
One observation is what OC and SD lack, compared to LA, BOS, NYC, SF/SJC: A major research university. UCSD is really awesome, but its not in the league of what you have in the aforementioned metro areas. BOS and SJC emerged as the tech hubs of America due to MIT and UCB/Stanford. LA has CalTech, UCLA and USC. NYC obviously has Wall Street, where you make crazy money as the norm.

An example from my company is that they pay a 15% adder for LA office location, but 0% additional for OC and SD. This implies a 15% gap in cost-of-labor, which is the metric used for this so-called adder (as opposed to cost of living).

Are you a developer or a sw engineering mgr? Either way, you should be making a lot more. Do you work for a software firm or an enterprise?

[BostonAndOC_RE_perspective]

Josh,
How did the desirability proxy jump so much from 2002 – ? Traffic got worse, all SD schools are way more crowded because no one will pass a bond measure, and the water is more crowded than ever. SD didn’t become any more desirable than it was in 1989, 1999 or 2002. Biotech is a ray of hope, but not until the products the SD-based biotech companies produce generate billions of $$ in revenue (like Genentech and Amgen did way back when). Even lawyers make way less in SD than they do in LA or SF. Always have.

The bottom line is that outside of Qualcomm (who pays pretty well) SD lacks a major non-defense corporation that can drive higher regional pay.

[BostonAndOC_RE_perspective]

SDR,

mid 30’s, at my current firm for 6 years, in my current role for 4 years. I did mostly product marketing and business development before I made the move to sales.

How long have you been a realtor? I don’t know too many with dual masters. You must clean up at the office poker games.

[Carlsbadliving]

Having lived in Seattle, No Cal, and now San Diego, I’ve noticed how transient San Diego is. Personally, I’ve been here 3 years and will probably go back to Seattle in a few more years. I chose to come down here for the “lifestyle” and accepted the fact that I wouldn’t make as much money and probably wouldn’t be able to afford a home. Since I’ve been here, a majority of the people I’ve met seem to be only “passing through”. In fact, it seems there’s a pipeline from Boston out here, where people make the trip out and stay for a few years and then return to Boston to live for good. I couldn’t believe how many Bostonians I’ve met. There’s a whole community of them out here. People have accepted the fact that they will make less money for the few years they’re here. I don’t know if that has anything to do with the lack of major employers. I just think that San Diego is such a temporary stop for so many people it helps contribute to the low pay. I agree with BostonandOc that most people back east grow up in the same place and never leave, sometimes even the same neighborhood.

[sdrealtor]

I come from on of those places back east where “most people never leave” and I’ll never go back for more than a visit. While SD is definitely more transient than many places there is a large and stable population committed to life here. It’s pretty funny but most people experience exactly what you have. The first three years, newcomers are excited to be here, typically renting and running around to all the fun places SD has to offer. They hold onto the identity of where they are from spending weekends at bars rooting for the Sox/Pats/Celtics, Yanks/Knick/Giants, Mets/Nets/Jets, Phils/Eagles/Sixers never truly embracing their new home nor trying to assimilate to life in a more diverse place than they came from. By diverse I mean everyone didnt go to the same school or grow up the same place. It becomes self selecting and most of the people you meet are in the same situation. Hence you think it is more transient than it actually is. After 3 years, people who are committed to staying begin to lay down roots and meet others who are equally committed. After that it becomes alot less transient.

My wife and I went through this ourselves and I have seen newbies go through this over and over again. Some make it and will stay forever….some don’t.

[sdrealtor]

A quick word of advice from my 10 + years of corporate sales experience. Be careful with those 200% of quota years, they’ll often get you fired in a year or two. Here’s the cycle I’ve seen (and personally experienced) over and over again. Young stud sales guy has great 200% of quota year by busting his butt. Get’s rewarded with a nice bonus, lots of kudos, trip to Rome/Austraila/UK and a nice plaque. Next year some financial guy putting the sales plan takes your record year numbers that will be difficult to replicate and gives you a quota of double your previous year production (or 400% of last years quota). You bust your butt and amazing produce a 50% increase over the last year which puts you at 75% of quota. Your thrilled at what you accomplished and management responds by splitting your territory in half and replacing you will two new young studs. I’ve seen it happen more times than I count.

Slow and steady growth will make for a longer happier corporate sales life.

[Author]

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