[lurkor]

Sorry Stan. I was getting default rates of the backing mortgages mixes up with home prices. It’s Friday afternoon and I’m not too alert.

I think the later posters made the point I was clumsily trying to make. What you describe makes sense for the first round of securitization, but considering that a CDO might be made up entirely of low-rated tranches from prior securitiziations, as one muggle’s link says, things could get bad if those initial tranches got wiped out.

Anyway thanks for clarifying.

[lurkor]

Stan, unless I am misreading you, you seem to be assuming that $100 of CDO is backed by $100 of home equity. I don’t understand this to be the case at all-from what I’ve read a 30% decline in home prices would easily wipe out many CDOs in their entirety.

Unfortunately after googling for a few minutes I can’t find a definitive source on this. Anybody know where to find details on the typical debt to equity ratio of a CDO?

[lurkor]

Stan, unless I am misreading you, you seem to be assuming that $100 of CDO is backed by $100 of home equity. I don’t understand this to be the case at all-from what I’ve read a 30% decline in home prices would easily wipe out many CDOs in their entirety.

Unfortunately after googling for a few minutes I can’t find a definitive source on this. Anybody know where to find details on the typical debt to equity ratio of a CDO?

[lurkor]

Alex_angel recently started a thread saying that the bubble is just now about to start bursting — only about two years late! but is giving SD Realtor a hard time because SDR can’t predict interest rate moves ahead of time? Either that or pretending that SDR didn’t know higher rates would hurt the market (as if ANYONE didn’t know that)?

Wow, you just can’t win on these internet forums.

SDR is a long time poster and a good guy. So everyone who hasn’t added as much to the forum as he has needs to just back off. Nobody is above criticism or questioning but he deserves some respect.

[lurkor]

Alex_angel recently started a thread saying that the bubble is just now about to start bursting — only about two years late! but is giving SD Realtor a hard time because SDR can’t predict interest rate moves ahead of time? Either that or pretending that SDR didn’t know higher rates would hurt the market (as if ANYONE didn’t know that)?

Wow, you just can’t win on these internet forums.

SDR is a long time poster and a good guy. So everyone who hasn’t added as much to the forum as he has needs to just back off. Nobody is above criticism or questioning but he deserves some respect.

[lurkor]

Chris – Is the research publicly available? Any way to post a link if so? I’d be interested in reading it if that’s possible. Thanks.

[lurkor]

Chris – Is the research publicly available? Any way to post a link if so? I’d be interested in reading it if that’s possible. Thanks.

[lurkor]

One distinction. Voting for small government economic policy is not necessarily voting for “your financial interests.” It is for some people, but I for one actually believe that while the government should play some role in helping those who can’t help themselves, govt intrusion into economic matters usually makes things worse for everyone, especially the poor, over the long haul. (Read Hazlitt’s “Economics in One Lesson” for a brief overview of why I feel that way).

So I am in favor of fiscal conservatism (in the traditional sense) but it’s not about protecting my own interests. I think it’s in everyone’s best long-term interests.

I have no problem if people disagree with this conclusion. I have a problem with people who think that because you are for limited govt, that you don’t care about helping the poor. I’ll bet i give more to charity than many of them do.

[lurkor]

One distinction. Voting for small government economic policy is not necessarily voting for “your financial interests.” It is for some people, but I for one actually believe that while the government should play some role in helping those who can’t help themselves, govt intrusion into economic matters usually makes things worse for everyone, especially the poor, over the long haul. (Read Hazlitt’s “Economics in One Lesson” for a brief overview of why I feel that way).

So I am in favor of fiscal conservatism (in the traditional sense) but it’s not about protecting my own interests. I think it’s in everyone’s best long-term interests.

I have no problem if people disagree with this conclusion. I have a problem with people who think that because you are for limited govt, that you don’t care about helping the poor. I’ll bet i give more to charity than many of them do.

[lurkor]

Sales and Must-Sell Inventory

[lurkor]

Read the above rant copied from her crap site and then read the voice of sd letter. No question it’s written by the same person.

Anyone who read that “missed the boom” post she mentions in the above rant knows that she is totally misrepresenting what actually happened. I recall Rich “lost his cool” because she was spreading false info about his private financial life, and then she wouldn’t stop when he asked her to. Funny how that part got left out.

It’s one thing for her to say funny, stupid stuff like “I stopped reading Rich’s reports, because he uses data to speculate,” but it’s another thing to spread lies and rumors and attack someone personally just because you disagree about some things. She is truly a despicable person.

[lurkor]

It sounds like pure Powayseller to me. If it’s a fake, it’s damn good.

I clicked over to her site (damn, I guess her ploy worked) and this chart caught my eye:

[img_assist|nid=3321|title=good analyses|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=362]

That’s some serious professionalism, just what i would expect from a pay site. Do you think she hired a graphic design firm to add that blue line, or did she pull that off herself? It seriously looks like something a toddler would do with a crayon.

[lurkor]

Allow me to translate dcarlso’s rambling and ungrammatical attempt at a comeback:

1. people who analyze something based on actual data are “whiners”

2. people who cluelessly believe whatever they are told and enthusiastically buy in to an obvious speculative bubble are “go-getters”

3. dcarlso is superior because he/she is a realtor(r) and not an agent

4. by insulting us, calling us names, and providing questionable realtor(r) propaganda, dacarlso is just “trying to help.”

Dcarlso, don’t waste your time trying to figure out what’s going on like some whiner. Get out there and be a go-getter… now is a great time to buy!

[lurkor]

“Those of you who did not have an optimistic perception back in 1997, have probably been speculating about a bubble since January of 1998.”

Yeah, that’s right. We’ve been speculating there’s a housing bubble since 1998.

Christ, dude. What a ridiculous statement. Is that the best you’ve got?

I also like how you characterize clueless, highly leveraged speculators chasing an overpriced asset during an obvious bubble as “stepping out on a limb and into the american dream” or some such nonsense. Yes, if we only had their bravery (and their complete lack of ability to analyze an investment).

[lurkor]

I think it’s hilarious… these people are paying for ad space and they can’t even be bothered to spell the name of their hometown (appearing in big banner letters) correctly. What total idiots. It’s a perfect commentary on the state of the mortgage industry.

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