April Sales Numbers

[lurkor]

Sales and Must-Sell Inventory

[ocrenter]

updated graphs for foreclosure #’s and % NODs to Trustee’s sales are now up.

BMIT

[SD Realtor]

sd teacher the information source that I use to analyze comps and give people sales price recommendations are based on the MLS information. As Bugs said the only sales logged on the MLS are sales where the MLS was used the advertise the property for sale. Let’s get things straight, a trustee sale, which is what you are referring to, is when a home is sold at auction. The home becomes an REO if nobody purchases it. Technically this is a sale because title is transferred to the lender. However these “sales” are not part of the MLS “sold” properties. So as a Realtor I do not use them as comps to recommend a price. Now once the properties are owned by the lender, if the lender chooses to hire a realtor or broker and advertise the home on the MLS then when the home is sold the sale will be on the MLS for me to use as a comp.

So the long winded answer to your question about how foreclosures will affect the median price per square foot is that it depends. If the agency collecting the data uses only MLS information, it will be one value. If the agency uses a souce that has ALL the sales including FSBOs, and all other sales that are not recorded on the MLS then the value will be different.

Common sense will dictate that the more trustee sales, the more lender owned properties will hit the MLS. The more lender owned properties there are, the more likely prices will depreciate, (as long as buyers don’t pay high prices); hope that all helps.

SD Realtor

[23109VC]

what about short sales?

if a homeowner is going into foreclosure and is trying to sell the property via MLS with an agent and has a short sale approved through their lender – that will reflect on MLS??

i’ve seen several homes advertised that are on th eMLS and they advertise as a “short sale”.

were short sales common in the last downturn and were short sales a big part of the price depreciation then? what we’re going to see here in so cal are piles of foreclosures…. or at least people who are on the verge of foreclosure and tons of houses for sale as a result.

[Bugs]

Bump

As of today, the MLS reports 2,257 sales, which is NOT 15% off the 2006 total of 2,622 for April 2006. It’s only 14.15% less. That’s still pretty bad.

I don’t think this number is going to increase significantly from here.

YTD, we are down about 12% in terms of volume compared to the same first 4 months of 2006. 8,191 for 2007 vs. 9,335 for 2006. If we extrapolate that trend for the remainder of the year we’ll end up at about about 25,000 sales through the MLS for the year, which falls between 1997s 27,200 and 1996s 23,500.

The thing to remember is that we’ve added more than 10% to our regional SFR/condo supply since 1996, so as a percentage of inventory, our current volume of sales represents a smaller percentage of total inventory. I read that to mean that a 25,000 volume in 2007 would be even WORSE than a 23,000 volume in 1996.

[Author]

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