[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

“One thing people tend to forget is that even if there is 10% unemployment, there is 90% employment.”

That is a little too simple, here is something to ponder. When you go from 5% to 10% unemployment see headlines of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a stock market crash, and data more than likely showing the worst recession in our lifetimes……What is the psychological impact on the 90% that are still employed??

The company I work for is very typical of Corporate America. Right now they are finalizing budgets for 09. The bean counters come in and say here is your expected revenue line for your division. With that revenue line we can support X amount of employees. If the revenue line is not hit we have to adjust to Y amount of employees. Now who gets cut, are you top heavy? then that would be middle and upper management, are we over staffed? cut staff, is our sales marketing strategy flawed? cut sales and marketing. Who is it going to be?? If you are in the wrong place at the wrong time in this environment it does not matter how talented or hard working you are. I have been through lesser versions of this before and have been shocked at some people that were…..Let go.

I am one of those people, I make a good six figure income with a very large down payment. Could I afford to buy right now? Yes Am I going to buy right now? Hell NO! Not in this crap. There are a whole lot of people like me right now.

Now I don’t know how this impacts N. County SD or the South Bay LA thats why I always like to read the Realtors take on things. There is obviously alot of money in CA. The point I am making is that when looking at the argument for a strong spring season, which has validity, it is my opinion that we don’t know the extent on psychology from the bottom to the top of the market this particular economic downturn is going to have. That is a variable that has not been determined.

Nor-LA-SD-guy,

We could have a nuclear armageddon and you will still get stuck on the 405.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Good points made by all. I always respect both realtors opinions given their front line perspective.

“It seems like the recession/depression effects will hit San Diego employers in the next year but whether that it sooner or later is the real question.”

In my little corner of the world, this is happening right now and it is getting worse. I deal with in a commodity type product that sales into a distributor based network of business supplies/service providers that encompass most facets of the service, industrial, municipal and energy segments of the economy. Let me give you an example of some of the stories I am hearing out there. One of my distributors services large chain restaurants (Macaroni Grill, Maggionos, Red Robin etc) At the busiest location of one of their top chains in S. Cal they will service 3000 napkins on a Friday, during the turmoil that number dropped to 600 and they have only rebounded to 50% to 60% of original volume. This is anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt but that is what I am seeing. Executives throughout America are getting this type of feedback across the country right now. If you were to ask me the Spring of 09 will be in the throws of one of the worst economic downturns post WW2, I still don’t think we will actually hit a depression but there will be times when it will feel like one. How this environment could translate into a strong Spring housing market is beyond me. Up to this point in time we have dealt with a pricing / mortgage issue, we have not dealt with a true fundamental downturn in the economy like we are entering right now. During the Spring of 09 we will be getting headlines of a possible 4% to 8% reduction in GDP during the 4th and 1rst quarters along with layoffs in full force. This will be a time of Max fear and pain of one’s own livelihood, not the stock, bond, or housing market, but one’s own job. The true financially secure will be out buying, but I don’t see enough of them to truly drive the market. Just my two cents. We will see in about 6 months.

[LA_Renter]

Chris,

Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement

“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”

The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.

“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’

You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.

[LA_Renter]

Chris,

Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement

“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”

The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.

“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’

You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.

[LA_Renter]

Chris,

Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement

“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”

The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.

“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’

You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.

[LA_Renter]

Chris,

Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement

“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”

The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.

“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’

You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.

[LA_Renter]

Chris,

Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement

“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”

The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.

“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’

You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.

[Author]

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