[LA_Renter]

The verdict is still out on Gold, heard a great interview with Barry Ritholtz which you can listen to here

[audio src="http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1101-2.mp3" /]

if you don’t have mp3 you can chose what you do have on this page

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

They talk about gold towards the end of the interview. Anyway Ritholtz points out that these hedge funds are getting ready to come undone and many of them had large positions in gold, so there is a possibility you could see panic selling in gold to below market fundamentals, that along with gold goes down in what looks to be a deflation scenario. Now the question is down the road what are the unintended consequences of all this govt interaction in the markets and non stop printing presses of money. Currency crisis?? A tsunami of inflation?? IMO that’s what you need to be paying attention to. I know that Rich has touched base on this subject and so have others about investing in gold mines. With the exception of today these stocks have just been hammered and the discrepancy between the price of gold the gold mining stocks is totally out of whack. Either the price of gold has to come way down or these miners have to rally and rally big. If that is the case the gold mines are the safer play here.

[LA_Renter]

The verdict is still out on Gold, heard a great interview with Barry Ritholtz which you can listen to here

[audio src="http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1101-2.mp3" /]

if you don’t have mp3 you can chose what you do have on this page

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

They talk about gold towards the end of the interview. Anyway Ritholtz points out that these hedge funds are getting ready to come undone and many of them had large positions in gold, so there is a possibility you could see panic selling in gold to below market fundamentals, that along with gold goes down in what looks to be a deflation scenario. Now the question is down the road what are the unintended consequences of all this govt interaction in the markets and non stop printing presses of money. Currency crisis?? A tsunami of inflation?? IMO that’s what you need to be paying attention to. I know that Rich has touched base on this subject and so have others about investing in gold mines. With the exception of today these stocks have just been hammered and the discrepancy between the price of gold the gold mining stocks is totally out of whack. Either the price of gold has to come way down or these miners have to rally and rally big. If that is the case the gold mines are the safer play here.

[LA_Renter]

The verdict is still out on Gold, heard a great interview with Barry Ritholtz which you can listen to here

[audio src="http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1101-2.mp3" /]

if you don’t have mp3 you can chose what you do have on this page

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

They talk about gold towards the end of the interview. Anyway Ritholtz points out that these hedge funds are getting ready to come undone and many of them had large positions in gold, so there is a possibility you could see panic selling in gold to below market fundamentals, that along with gold goes down in what looks to be a deflation scenario. Now the question is down the road what are the unintended consequences of all this govt interaction in the markets and non stop printing presses of money. Currency crisis?? A tsunami of inflation?? IMO that’s what you need to be paying attention to. I know that Rich has touched base on this subject and so have others about investing in gold mines. With the exception of today these stocks have just been hammered and the discrepancy between the price of gold the gold mining stocks is totally out of whack. Either the price of gold has to come way down or these miners have to rally and rally big. If that is the case the gold mines are the safer play here.

[LA_Renter]

The verdict is still out on Gold, heard a great interview with Barry Ritholtz which you can listen to here

[audio src="http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1101-2.mp3" /]

if you don’t have mp3 you can chose what you do have on this page

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

They talk about gold towards the end of the interview. Anyway Ritholtz points out that these hedge funds are getting ready to come undone and many of them had large positions in gold, so there is a possibility you could see panic selling in gold to below market fundamentals, that along with gold goes down in what looks to be a deflation scenario. Now the question is down the road what are the unintended consequences of all this govt interaction in the markets and non stop printing presses of money. Currency crisis?? A tsunami of inflation?? IMO that’s what you need to be paying attention to. I know that Rich has touched base on this subject and so have others about investing in gold mines. With the exception of today these stocks have just been hammered and the discrepancy between the price of gold the gold mining stocks is totally out of whack. Either the price of gold has to come way down or these miners have to rally and rally big. If that is the case the gold mines are the safer play here.

[LA_Renter]

The verdict is still out on Gold, heard a great interview with Barry Ritholtz which you can listen to here

[audio src="http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2008-1101-2.mp3" /]

if you don’t have mp3 you can chose what you do have on this page

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

They talk about gold towards the end of the interview. Anyway Ritholtz points out that these hedge funds are getting ready to come undone and many of them had large positions in gold, so there is a possibility you could see panic selling in gold to below market fundamentals, that along with gold goes down in what looks to be a deflation scenario. Now the question is down the road what are the unintended consequences of all this govt interaction in the markets and non stop printing presses of money. Currency crisis?? A tsunami of inflation?? IMO that’s what you need to be paying attention to. I know that Rich has touched base on this subject and so have others about investing in gold mines. With the exception of today these stocks have just been hammered and the discrepancy between the price of gold the gold mining stocks is totally out of whack. Either the price of gold has to come way down or these miners have to rally and rally big. If that is the case the gold mines are the safer play here.

[LA_Renter]

“The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression

Nouriel Roubini | Oct 9, 2008″

The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.”

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression

This is getting a little too serious for me.

[LA_Renter]

“The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression

Nouriel Roubini | Oct 9, 2008″

The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.”

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression

This is getting a little too serious for me.

[LA_Renter]

“The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression

Nouriel Roubini | Oct 9, 2008″

The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.”

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression

This is getting a little too serious for me.

[LA_Renter]

“The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression

Nouriel Roubini | Oct 9, 2008″

The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.”

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression

This is getting a little too serious for me.

[LA_Renter]

“The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression

Nouriel Roubini | Oct 9, 2008″

The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.”

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression

This is getting a little too serious for me.

[LA_Renter]

If you were to ask me the future of home prices will not be determined on the extent of the bailouts as much as the employment picture. For the past few years I have been on the fence of what the real economy ramifications of this housing/credit bubble were going to be, leaning towards a garden variety recession. That may have been a little naive. The recent data on the economy as far as job loss, auto sales, ISM index etc shows a profound decline hitting right now. Goldman Sachs has revised their projections for a much deeper recession (this will be revised again) and on a smaller note I am seeing this decline first hand in my own business.

Up to this point the underlying economy in S. California has actually been somewhat resilient all things being considered. I don’t see that continuing. I liken this to residents along the Gulf coast preparing for hurricanes. The last couple of recessions we have had have been maybe a weaker Cat 3 in the early 90’s at least in CA and a strong Cat 1 in 2001. The financial crisis we are in the midst of is like a Cat 5 (Camille) with 200 mph sustained winds and a 25 ft storm surge that is just now approaching land. Ask people who have experienced a Cat 5 hurricane how much different of an experience that is from a week Cat 3. The next 12 to 24 months are simply going to be horrible and the total tally of the bailouts could possibly reach $2 Trillion. I really hope that I am being extreme here but the data is coming in and it does not look good. So again the employment picture will be a strong variable on where home prices bottom.

[LA_Renter]

If you were to ask me the future of home prices will not be determined on the extent of the bailouts as much as the employment picture. For the past few years I have been on the fence of what the real economy ramifications of this housing/credit bubble were going to be, leaning towards a garden variety recession. That may have been a little naive. The recent data on the economy as far as job loss, auto sales, ISM index etc shows a profound decline hitting right now. Goldman Sachs has revised their projections for a much deeper recession (this will be revised again) and on a smaller note I am seeing this decline first hand in my own business.

Up to this point the underlying economy in S. California has actually been somewhat resilient all things being considered. I don’t see that continuing. I liken this to residents along the Gulf coast preparing for hurricanes. The last couple of recessions we have had have been maybe a weaker Cat 3 in the early 90’s at least in CA and a strong Cat 1 in 2001. The financial crisis we are in the midst of is like a Cat 5 (Camille) with 200 mph sustained winds and a 25 ft storm surge that is just now approaching land. Ask people who have experienced a Cat 5 hurricane how much different of an experience that is from a week Cat 3. The next 12 to 24 months are simply going to be horrible and the total tally of the bailouts could possibly reach $2 Trillion. I really hope that I am being extreme here but the data is coming in and it does not look good. So again the employment picture will be a strong variable on where home prices bottom.

[LA_Renter]

If you were to ask me the future of home prices will not be determined on the extent of the bailouts as much as the employment picture. For the past few years I have been on the fence of what the real economy ramifications of this housing/credit bubble were going to be, leaning towards a garden variety recession. That may have been a little naive. The recent data on the economy as far as job loss, auto sales, ISM index etc shows a profound decline hitting right now. Goldman Sachs has revised their projections for a much deeper recession (this will be revised again) and on a smaller note I am seeing this decline first hand in my own business.

Up to this point the underlying economy in S. California has actually been somewhat resilient all things being considered. I don’t see that continuing. I liken this to residents along the Gulf coast preparing for hurricanes. The last couple of recessions we have had have been maybe a weaker Cat 3 in the early 90’s at least in CA and a strong Cat 1 in 2001. The financial crisis we are in the midst of is like a Cat 5 (Camille) with 200 mph sustained winds and a 25 ft storm surge that is just now approaching land. Ask people who have experienced a Cat 5 hurricane how much different of an experience that is from a week Cat 3. The next 12 to 24 months are simply going to be horrible and the total tally of the bailouts could possibly reach $2 Trillion. I really hope that I am being extreme here but the data is coming in and it does not look good. So again the employment picture will be a strong variable on where home prices bottom.

[LA_Renter]

If you were to ask me the future of home prices will not be determined on the extent of the bailouts as much as the employment picture. For the past few years I have been on the fence of what the real economy ramifications of this housing/credit bubble were going to be, leaning towards a garden variety recession. That may have been a little naive. The recent data on the economy as far as job loss, auto sales, ISM index etc shows a profound decline hitting right now. Goldman Sachs has revised their projections for a much deeper recession (this will be revised again) and on a smaller note I am seeing this decline first hand in my own business.

Up to this point the underlying economy in S. California has actually been somewhat resilient all things being considered. I don’t see that continuing. I liken this to residents along the Gulf coast preparing for hurricanes. The last couple of recessions we have had have been maybe a weaker Cat 3 in the early 90’s at least in CA and a strong Cat 1 in 2001. The financial crisis we are in the midst of is like a Cat 5 (Camille) with 200 mph sustained winds and a 25 ft storm surge that is just now approaching land. Ask people who have experienced a Cat 5 hurricane how much different of an experience that is from a week Cat 3. The next 12 to 24 months are simply going to be horrible and the total tally of the bailouts could possibly reach $2 Trillion. I really hope that I am being extreme here but the data is coming in and it does not look good. So again the employment picture will be a strong variable on where home prices bottom.

[LA_Renter]

If you were to ask me the future of home prices will not be determined on the extent of the bailouts as much as the employment picture. For the past few years I have been on the fence of what the real economy ramifications of this housing/credit bubble were going to be, leaning towards a garden variety recession. That may have been a little naive. The recent data on the economy as far as job loss, auto sales, ISM index etc shows a profound decline hitting right now. Goldman Sachs has revised their projections for a much deeper recession (this will be revised again) and on a smaller note I am seeing this decline first hand in my own business.

Up to this point the underlying economy in S. California has actually been somewhat resilient all things being considered. I don’t see that continuing. I liken this to residents along the Gulf coast preparing for hurricanes. The last couple of recessions we have had have been maybe a weaker Cat 3 in the early 90’s at least in CA and a strong Cat 1 in 2001. The financial crisis we are in the midst of is like a Cat 5 (Camille) with 200 mph sustained winds and a 25 ft storm surge that is just now approaching land. Ask people who have experienced a Cat 5 hurricane how much different of an experience that is from a week Cat 3. The next 12 to 24 months are simply going to be horrible and the total tally of the bailouts could possibly reach $2 Trillion. I really hope that I am being extreme here but the data is coming in and it does not look good. So again the employment picture will be a strong variable on where home prices bottom.

[Author]

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