Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Easy money on next leg down, second Fool’s Rally progressing as expected
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peterb.
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AuthorPosts
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November 5, 2008 at 8:07 AM #299788November 5, 2008 at 8:44 AM #299411
air_ogi
ParticipantSPWRB is far better choice than SPWRA.
8x voting rights + almost 30% discount for the same stock.
November 5, 2008 at 8:44 AM #299765ParticipantSPWRB is far better choice than SPWRA.
8x voting rights + almost 30% discount for the same stock.
November 5, 2008 at 8:44 AM #299774ParticipantSPWRB is far better choice than SPWRA.
8x voting rights + almost 30% discount for the same stock.
November 5, 2008 at 8:44 AM #299790ParticipantSPWRB is far better choice than SPWRA.
8x voting rights + almost 30% discount for the same stock.
November 5, 2008 at 8:44 AM #299838ParticipantSPWRB is far better choice than SPWRA.
8x voting rights + almost 30% discount for the same stock.
November 5, 2008 at 9:28 AM #299426LA_Renter
ParticipantChris,
Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement
“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”
The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.
“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’
You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.
November 5, 2008 at 9:28 AM #299779ParticipantChris,
Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement
“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”
The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.
“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’
You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.
November 5, 2008 at 9:28 AM #299789ParticipantChris,
Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement
“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”
The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.
“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’
You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.
November 5, 2008 at 9:28 AM #299806ParticipantChris,
Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement
“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”
The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.
“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’
You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.
November 5, 2008 at 9:28 AM #299853ParticipantChris,
Your post always frustrate me, thats probably because you are looking at this from the strict view point as a trader, inflows and outflows, while I look at this from economic fundamentals. With that said I take issue with this statement
“There are no fools rallies or genius declines, there is just ebb and flow in the marketplace”
The Dow going from 14000 to 7800 is a pretty big ebb. You call it an ebb I call it a crash. I think the real story here on Piggington and other housing bubble blogs is that over the past two to three years these sites simply stated that housing prices had become too inflated due to unprecedented lax lending standards, and that the inevitable popping of this housing/credit bubble would have negative consequences for the economy and equities. In that context we were dead on correct. There is more than one market here. Basically what we saw throughout 2007 when the Dow was soaring over 14000 was the Bond market telling the Stock market those valuations are dead wrong. Many here on Piggington were pointing out the same thing. Now we have a stock market pricing in the actual fundamentals of the credit markets and the economy. That did happen through a process of ebbs and flows, but the big money has been made with the ebbs.
“but the constant buy, sell no wait a minute I said sell, buy, oops hang on, no it is a buy is very counterproductive.’
You call it counterproductive I just call it the market. That is the way any market looks at anytime. There is no one collective Piggington here, there is some fantastic dialogue about the state of the markets and which way they are going, I have seen countless post on here playing counter trend rallies. all in all if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist. JMHO.
November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM #299518stockstradr
ParticipantOK, responding to various new posts:
stansd writes: You must be filthy rich with all these correct calls…with all that money sloshing around.
ANSWER: I wish I was filthy rich. However, it is true that my 401K is now up 45% net compared to Oct. 2007 valuation. If I can only keep up that level of appreciation for a few years running..I may end up filthy rich.
mercedes7 writes: Do you really think this rally will take us to 1200 on the spx? Where do you see the dow? What do you trade? SDS?
ANSWER: Keep in mind I’m just GUESSING like everyone else. Having acknowledged that, my instincts tell me the Fool’s Rally carries us above 1100 on S&P500, but I view 1,200 as only a possibility – meaning I’ll start shorting at 1050, and 1100 but I won’t wait until 1,200 before building a short position. Yes, I love to trade the ProShares ETF’s, such as “SDS” “QLD” As for the DOW, it is such a narrow index (30 stocks) I don’t pay much attention to it.
fat_lazy_union_worker writes: I always thought in an deflation, everything comes down, including gold.
I agree with that! Now I also agree with everything Rich T. has written on gold as well (very bullish long-term on gold). However, I believe I have a subtle difference with Rich T. on gold pricing during the short-term (during the recession, 12-18 months) when I am more inclined to only dabble in gold or ignore it, because I’m concerned about short-term instability in gold prices. This is due to difficult-to-predict outcome of competing deflationary pressure vs. buying pressure in anticipating of dollar collapse. So far I’ve been right in following the experts (Roubini) who predicted gold prices would likely fall as the recession heats up, reducing demand. Look how we’ve fallen off the $1,000/ounce highs. However, long-term, smart money is in agreement: gold will soar in value as the dollar collapses.
LA_Renter writes: if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist.
I sure do agree with that! And all those Talking Heads on Bloomberg/CNBC/Barrons, they are supposed to be the high-paid “experts” on financial markets. What a joke they are.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)
Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.
Thought of the day:
It sure makes me doubt my prediction when I see the way the markets are selling off today. Makes me wonder, “Was I wrong about Fool’s Rally carrying us up to 1100? Maybe yesterday I should have sold my long oil and just gone short the indexes. For now I’ll sit tight and hope I’m right about S&P500 hitting 1100 soon. So far gold falling today. Maybe I was right *fingers crossed* to have dumped half my gold yesterday at $760”November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM #299875ParticipantOK, responding to various new posts:
stansd writes: You must be filthy rich with all these correct calls…with all that money sloshing around.
ANSWER: I wish I was filthy rich. However, it is true that my 401K is now up 45% net compared to Oct. 2007 valuation. If I can only keep up that level of appreciation for a few years running..I may end up filthy rich.
mercedes7 writes: Do you really think this rally will take us to 1200 on the spx? Where do you see the dow? What do you trade? SDS?
ANSWER: Keep in mind I’m just GUESSING like everyone else. Having acknowledged that, my instincts tell me the Fool’s Rally carries us above 1100 on S&P500, but I view 1,200 as only a possibility – meaning I’ll start shorting at 1050, and 1100 but I won’t wait until 1,200 before building a short position. Yes, I love to trade the ProShares ETF’s, such as “SDS” “QLD” As for the DOW, it is such a narrow index (30 stocks) I don’t pay much attention to it.
fat_lazy_union_worker writes: I always thought in an deflation, everything comes down, including gold.
I agree with that! Now I also agree with everything Rich T. has written on gold as well (very bullish long-term on gold). However, I believe I have a subtle difference with Rich T. on gold pricing during the short-term (during the recession, 12-18 months) when I am more inclined to only dabble in gold or ignore it, because I’m concerned about short-term instability in gold prices. This is due to difficult-to-predict outcome of competing deflationary pressure vs. buying pressure in anticipating of dollar collapse. So far I’ve been right in following the experts (Roubini) who predicted gold prices would likely fall as the recession heats up, reducing demand. Look how we’ve fallen off the $1,000/ounce highs. However, long-term, smart money is in agreement: gold will soar in value as the dollar collapses.
LA_Renter writes: if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist.
I sure do agree with that! And all those Talking Heads on Bloomberg/CNBC/Barrons, they are supposed to be the high-paid “experts” on financial markets. What a joke they are.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)
Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.
Thought of the day:
It sure makes me doubt my prediction when I see the way the markets are selling off today. Makes me wonder, “Was I wrong about Fool’s Rally carrying us up to 1100? Maybe yesterday I should have sold my long oil and just gone short the indexes. For now I’ll sit tight and hope I’m right about S&P500 hitting 1100 soon. So far gold falling today. Maybe I was right *fingers crossed* to have dumped half my gold yesterday at $760”November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM #299886ParticipantOK, responding to various new posts:
stansd writes: You must be filthy rich with all these correct calls…with all that money sloshing around.
ANSWER: I wish I was filthy rich. However, it is true that my 401K is now up 45% net compared to Oct. 2007 valuation. If I can only keep up that level of appreciation for a few years running..I may end up filthy rich.
mercedes7 writes: Do you really think this rally will take us to 1200 on the spx? Where do you see the dow? What do you trade? SDS?
ANSWER: Keep in mind I’m just GUESSING like everyone else. Having acknowledged that, my instincts tell me the Fool’s Rally carries us above 1100 on S&P500, but I view 1,200 as only a possibility – meaning I’ll start shorting at 1050, and 1100 but I won’t wait until 1,200 before building a short position. Yes, I love to trade the ProShares ETF’s, such as “SDS” “QLD” As for the DOW, it is such a narrow index (30 stocks) I don’t pay much attention to it.
fat_lazy_union_worker writes: I always thought in an deflation, everything comes down, including gold.
I agree with that! Now I also agree with everything Rich T. has written on gold as well (very bullish long-term on gold). However, I believe I have a subtle difference with Rich T. on gold pricing during the short-term (during the recession, 12-18 months) when I am more inclined to only dabble in gold or ignore it, because I’m concerned about short-term instability in gold prices. This is due to difficult-to-predict outcome of competing deflationary pressure vs. buying pressure in anticipating of dollar collapse. So far I’ve been right in following the experts (Roubini) who predicted gold prices would likely fall as the recession heats up, reducing demand. Look how we’ve fallen off the $1,000/ounce highs. However, long-term, smart money is in agreement: gold will soar in value as the dollar collapses.
LA_Renter writes: if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist.
I sure do agree with that! And all those Talking Heads on Bloomberg/CNBC/Barrons, they are supposed to be the high-paid “experts” on financial markets. What a joke they are.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)
Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.
Thought of the day:
It sure makes me doubt my prediction when I see the way the markets are selling off today. Makes me wonder, “Was I wrong about Fool’s Rally carrying us up to 1100? Maybe yesterday I should have sold my long oil and just gone short the indexes. For now I’ll sit tight and hope I’m right about S&P500 hitting 1100 soon. So far gold falling today. Maybe I was right *fingers crossed* to have dumped half my gold yesterday at $760”November 5, 2008 at 12:45 PM #299901ParticipantOK, responding to various new posts:
stansd writes: You must be filthy rich with all these correct calls…with all that money sloshing around.
ANSWER: I wish I was filthy rich. However, it is true that my 401K is now up 45% net compared to Oct. 2007 valuation. If I can only keep up that level of appreciation for a few years running..I may end up filthy rich.
mercedes7 writes: Do you really think this rally will take us to 1200 on the spx? Where do you see the dow? What do you trade? SDS?
ANSWER: Keep in mind I’m just GUESSING like everyone else. Having acknowledged that, my instincts tell me the Fool’s Rally carries us above 1100 on S&P500, but I view 1,200 as only a possibility – meaning I’ll start shorting at 1050, and 1100 but I won’t wait until 1,200 before building a short position. Yes, I love to trade the ProShares ETF’s, such as “SDS” “QLD” As for the DOW, it is such a narrow index (30 stocks) I don’t pay much attention to it.
fat_lazy_union_worker writes: I always thought in an deflation, everything comes down, including gold.
I agree with that! Now I also agree with everything Rich T. has written on gold as well (very bullish long-term on gold). However, I believe I have a subtle difference with Rich T. on gold pricing during the short-term (during the recession, 12-18 months) when I am more inclined to only dabble in gold or ignore it, because I’m concerned about short-term instability in gold prices. This is due to difficult-to-predict outcome of competing deflationary pressure vs. buying pressure in anticipating of dollar collapse. So far I’ve been right in following the experts (Roubini) who predicted gold prices would likely fall as the recession heats up, reducing demand. Look how we’ve fallen off the $1,000/ounce highs. However, long-term, smart money is in agreement: gold will soar in value as the dollar collapses.
LA_Renter writes: if you look at the content and dialogue here and contrast that to Barrons, CNBC talking heads, etc you are far better off in here than you are with traditional MSM and established economist.
I sure do agree with that! And all those Talking Heads on Bloomberg/CNBC/Barrons, they are supposed to be the high-paid “experts” on financial markets. What a joke they are.
Chris Scoreboard Johnston writes: (various whining and flaming, ranting posts)
Chris, either put up OR shut up. By “put up” I mean add some value by putting up YOUR PREDICTIONS. I’m sincerely interested in your predictions and analysis. I’m NOT interested in reading your ranting whining posts that flame other predictions.
Thought of the day:
It sure makes me doubt my prediction when I see the way the markets are selling off today. Makes me wonder, “Was I wrong about Fool’s Rally carrying us up to 1100? Maybe yesterday I should have sold my long oil and just gone short the indexes. For now I’ll sit tight and hope I’m right about S&P500 hitting 1100 soon. So far gold falling today. Maybe I was right *fingers crossed* to have dumped half my gold yesterday at $760” -
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