[joec]

[quote=spdrun]^^^

Crap shoot. You may lose money in 5 years if the market tanks, or if the market shoots up, you may gain money in a year (as people who bought ca. late 2012 did till now).[/quote]

All true…what isn’t though is when you sell, you typically will lose 6% instantly from the realtor’s commissions so outside of what the market does, you’re already down a good 24k.

Bottom line is if you plan to stay for a while, buying isn’t the worst thing in the world if the numbers pencil out since as I’ve said many times before, you (and other people) HAVE to live somewhere…unfortunately…

unlike say buying a car or having cable or a smart phone, etc…

[joec]

[quote=unnamed0404]Yes, I do know I can get the equivalent 1 or 2 bedroom in Mira Mesa for about 100k less, and I did look around there for a little bit, but to be honest, I don’t really want to live there. I saw some condos there, and they seemed pretty old, and I also wasn’t sure what the quality of the neighbors were.

I have lived in the UTC area for about 3 years, and have come to the conclusion that this is the type of area I’d want to live in, in terms of feel of the area, convenience, safety, etc. Also since this is a prime area (next to ucsd, qualcomm, utc mall, etc), I feel like it’d hold up its value moreso than other areas, even if they did take a dip. So in a way, I’d be buying mostly for the area. Not saying the condos themselves are good quality though, I think most (venetian, verano, lucera, vicenza) are actually apartment to condo conversions, which means they are lower quality (super thin walls, no garage, etc) and I even heard of plumbing problems in some of them.

There are some real nice townhomes in the Renaissance neighborhood, but I’d probably have to drop 300k+ for a 1 bedroom there…sigh.

In regards to rent vs own, I know that I would probably be able to pay slightly less to rent (1400 vs 1500-1600 to buy) at venetian ( I have enough for 20% down), but thats only a hundred or 2 more, and at least I’d be building equity and getting some more tax deductions right? The rent seems to be going up too.[/quote]

I think it’s really hard to put a price on living in a place you own vs. rent…Everyone would say to buy a single family home vs. a condo/townhome though since as mentioned, you can’t begin to guess who the other tenants are and condo’s / townhomes are just harder to sell, not to mention the HOA funding issues and it maybe harder to get a loan too if a large number there are renters.

I personally think the UTC area is tons better than Mira Mesa as well. Other than areas near Sorrento Valley which we shopped for as well, Mira Mesa overall just does look ghetto to me too…Too many large strip malls with high traffic, massive parking lots, etc…

I still get tons of grief from my wife for living in a crappy rental place before buying. To me, it was all about the numbers since I felt rent was throwing money away, but oh well…I could almost live anywhere.

At the end, I think the forums aren’t really a good place to figure out what to do since everyone else has a different situation. If you work in UTC and have already lived there for 3 years, you probably should know generally what the nice places are. Too expensive to buy a SFH, but with an almost equal rent/buy calc, it’s hard to say numbers wise, renting really makes sense. Of course, you have to factor in other job opportunities, the major you studied and would you move for more lucrative job offers (say silicon valley), etc…or if you will be married, etc…

Just make sure you plan to live there for at least 5+ years if you don’t want to lose money…You can rent it out, but since you may want to upgrade to a home later, you may need your down payment back so you’d have to sell.

[joec]

[quote=HenryPP]I think you are leaving out several important costs from your purchase calculation.

For example, 4S has quite high Mello Roos (especially for north 4S). Unless you plan to pay that off early, you have to add that in (in addition to the HOA, which is reasonably low in 4S). Also, the various costs of home ownership.

I looked at 4S pretty extensively a couple of years ago (I work in one of the tech companies nearby and I like the area). I ended up buying elsewhere, but I might still buy in 4S in a couple of years (good schools, etc).

But I seriously doubt that I would be able to find such a deal on a purchase that it would be $1,000 less than renting.[/quote]

I actually plugged in a 1.5% tax rate so I already factored that “cost” in so to speak…Del Sur is a bit more expensive tax wise (maybe as much as 1.9%), but you don’t have to live there to make the numbers work I don’t think…HOA is $85/month I believe.

Again, people need to do the math and all that to see if it makes sense for them, but it’s easy to say the numbers don’t work just because of Mello Roos when the cost of the home is already factored in (lower for MR houses)…To me at least, the numbers don’t really lie and it seems like it’s not as bad as I read about where people think everything is a bubble.

Also, anyone who can buy an 800k place with a 20% down I assume, usually is 1 or 2 professionals pulling in close to MINIMUM 150k a year (this doesn’t sound like a lot IMO). That puts your tax rates at the marginal bracket at 28% – 33%. You factor in CA state at a massive 9.3% or more and you’re in the 37-42% bracket.

Without a large mortgage as a tax deduction, you’ll also get killed in income taxes so most buyers are able to deduct that huge amount. Add in property tax including the MR and you’re able to save a ton of dough compared to purely renting for that 3.5-4k price.

I don’t know if you are married or have kids, but I think people who buy to live tend to care less about it MUST being lower, but with guaranteed or controlled housing cost and your own place, I think people are willing to pay more if they like the area/schools, etc…

Just do your own numbers of course, but to me at least, the math isn’t that insane with rents at these levels IMO.

[joec]

Relevant video on this topic of stay-at-home dads…As mentioned, there is still plenty of negativity when men do their stay at home parenting thing. I agree that from ages 0-5, I honestly think watching the kids is much harder than work and have done both…

At work, I had a ton more time to “take a break” where with the kids who are too old to sleep constantly, you rarely get a breather. Dealing/working with adults also is easier to me than say a sick toddler or ill newborn. I suppose the stress with sick kids is freakier than some “minor” work issue that is no big deal.

Sorta interesting that women are also criticized for working vs. staying at home.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/nightline-fix-abc-news/being-mr-mom-stay-home-dads-tough-full-154633088.html

[joec]

Appreciation may slow this year, but I am probably in the minority in thinking there isn’t really a bubble in the whole 4s ranch area since for one thing, people buying now have probably a ton more equity in the house with much larger down payments and these people aren’t house flippers or investors.

As you need a place to live in no matter what, people will buy if they have kids and can afford the monthly payments. I think people shop for a house more based on payments vs. the overall cost of the house since if you don’t buy, you have to rent anyways.

On craigslist, 4s seems to be getting about 3.5 – 4.1k per month for the typical 3k sqft house with around 4 for the bigger ones in Del Sur.
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/search/apa?zoomToPosting=&catAbb=apa&query=4s+ranch&minAsk=&maxAsk=&bedrooms=3&housing_type=6&excats=

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/apa/4306945264.html

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/nsd/apa/4300457498.html

Using this calculator:
http://www.mortgagecalculator.org/

For an $800,000 home, with 20% down (this is easy for most “asian” families I think with family money/help or heavy savings…30 year 4.5% loan, I get a monthly payment of $4,242.79. You assume a decently high tax deduction of about 35% for state and federal and after taxes of $2757.81. Wow, it’s 1k less to buy than rent…You can buy and rent it out yourself as well and depreciate as a business over 27.5 years (is that still around?) and write off against your own personal income as well…

With rents in the area this high, and MUCH MUCH stronger buyers who are generally much more financially invested (higher down payments needed recently), they can simply wait out any price drop or simply rent it out and wait as well.

Interest rates do determine affordability, but they are still very low and if you need a home for your family with kids and have a decent job/income, the numbers sorta pencil out ok…

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but rents are pretty high in that area and schools are “decent” with “affordable” housing compared to say, Del Mar, La Jolla, anywhere in the Bay Area, Los Angeles, etc…

Really, compared to the bay area, real estate in San Diego IMO is down right cheap…(one reason I left I guess).

[joec]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Pressure to come back to USA for education and healthcare.

International schools are costly. US universities are more prestigious. UC is a bargain if you’re a CA resident.

Medicare only pays services within the country.

What foreign spouse doesn’t want US citizenship if only to have it. That’s a 3 year process. More like 4 years with all the paperwork.

Living in 2 countries could be quite nice. I could do it.[/quote]

US education and healthcare is actually nearer to the bottom of nearly every world ranking now (more so for healthcare). As mentioned in another thread, there is typically a thought that the US is the best in a lot of things and people who never travel outside the US still thinks this, but in terms of health care and education, US is always near dead last now…A lot of this is due to low investments and putting company profits first to sell more services vs. trying to keep the population healthy since that’d be bad for business. Also, cost tends to be so fair in international locations vs. one-hospital-bill-from-bankrupcy in the US that people should be more concerned with that in the US.

I suppose having lived here nearly my whole life, I wouldn’t mind moving as much now, since I don’t think things are as “great” in the US anymore and will be in a long term decline.

http://www.businessinsider.com/best-healthcare-systems-in-the-world-2012-6?op=1

http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/best-and-worst/most-efficient-health-care-countries

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2013/01/new-health-rankings-of-17-nations-us-is-dead-last/267045/

Among the most striking of the report’s findings are that, among the countries studied, the U.S. has:

The highest rate of death by violence, by a stunning margin
The highest rate of death by car accident, also dramatically so
The highest chance that a child will die before age 5
The second-highest rate of death by coronary heart disease
The second-highest rate of death by lung disease
The highest teen pregnancy rate
The highest rate of women dying due to complications of pregnancy and childbirth

Education

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/dec/07/world-education-rankings-maths-science-reading

Also, as cheap as UC schools are, a lot of private prestigious schools offer a lot more financial aid and I’ve read of many articles people are opting to go to a private school vs. UC for this very reason…It is probably true that a US university is better than other countries though…

That said, UC isn’t all that and with constant budget cuts, limited class sizes, classes only offered once a year, etc…you have graduation for UC people dragging out longer and longer…This was even common back in the 90s when I went. If possible, I’d probably rather my kids go to a private place personally…Getting classes was a pain 20+ years ago and it’s only worst now.

Data:
http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_20101265

Believe it: Harvard cheaper than Cal State:

The impossible has happened: Harvard College is now thousands of dollars cheaper than Cal State East Bay for middle-income California students.

So is Princeton. And Williams College. And Yale.

Top private schools, with their generous aid, have been among the most affordable options for poor students for a few years, but rising tuition has only recently sent California State University and University of California prices shooting past the Harvards and Yales for middle-class students.
.
.
.
College-cost calculators illuminate the dramatic shifts.

Consider a family of four — married parents, a high-school senior and a 14-year-old child — making $130,000 a year.

With typical aid, the family should expect to pay nearly $24,000 for a Cal State freshman’s tuition, on-campus room and board, supplies and other expenses. At Harvard? Just $17,000, even though its stated annual tuition is $36,305.

The same family would pay about $33,000 for a freshman year at UC Santa Cruz. UC Berkeley, which recently followed the lead of private colleges by boosting aid for middle-class families, would cost $19,500.

[joec]

[quote=Blogstar]I agree, young people can have very nice qualities and settling down with someone won’t be easy for all the reasons you mention. Can be a wild time…or a lonely time, almost any kind of time…and not always easy to find middle ground. I am glad to be through it.

I always have trouble with that word “sacrifice” as it relates to family. I know it’s true….but it doesn’t seem like something one wants to think about….like it’s selfish to look at it that way….I sort of look at it like tradeoffs and just forget about it, but it might be better the other way….you could be proud of the sacrifices you make I guess, or something.

I could be sacrificing myself by watching a terrible movie with them right now.
Journey to Mysterious Island. I already told my wife the only thing in it for me is looking at the girl… she said it’s o.k. she doesn’t mind.,,good to mitigate the sacrifices.[/quote]

I think my wording of sacrifice is maybe not the correct term or I view it as just a word I used. Like many studies says that people with kids are not as happy as people without, but a lot of folks (me included) would probably not give up the kids to say, have a “happier” life as defined by what society or scientists call “happy”.

Maybe it’s part of the overall life experience to me and we all know kids are an insane part of life…but like the article below says, having kids has it’s own ups and downs and higher stress points with the relationship (since it’s not just you and a spouse anymore) so things get strained, not to mention time is completely shot…at least at the early 1-5/6 years till full time school.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/14/living/parents-happiness-child-free-studies/

But yeah, calling it sacrifice isn’t really the right word, even to me, but more of a life choice I guess.

Sorta funny in the article that states if parents had to choose, the wife would pick the kids over the husbands 🙂 while husbands would choose the wife.

Guess we know who dies if it’s the kids or the husband if a choice had to be made. 🙂

[joec]

[quote=Blogstar]I don’t think scaredy’s six pack or my 8 pack hold much sway with our respective wives or with women in general.

The best way to be attractive is to be almost universally kind, not too addicted, humorous,Patient(something I lack) , at least moderately productive and definitely interesting by doing things that are appealing widely across genders on a regular basis with at least several activities,, good ones are art, gardening, nature activities, exercise(not macho contests) reading, cooking and dining, liking at least some chick flick or theatre, reading and or language hobbies, dancing, etc. Beauty can help of course, we are easily swayed by that for sure, but it can be bad when it is put above these things or used too blatantly to cross socio-economic lines, ignoring what is important.

Many women have told me they liked me after seeing how kind I was to old people! Sincerely appreciating children , not just to pass your name, just children anywhere, can make life easier. I have gotten respect for how bad my cars are.

If a man is like that and not cursed with obvious health issues, he will be potentially accepted by lots of straight women (appreciated by lesbians) .. pretty much anyone except gold diggers .

The comment about it being easier for some, like getting good grades is true though. I’d try not to get too hung up on improving the superficial though.[/quote]

All this is true after women get older and have been in more relationships or marriages or have more life experiences. However, in the 25-35 age bracket, I think a ton of this stuff just doesn’t fly for the younger folks trying to meet people. The problem is you really don’t even have a chance to get to know people if you don’t have some thing that can get the conversation flowing. I saw it a bit at my work where younger and younger people, even now have to try online dating, etc…Just seems harder overall to meet and make the sacrifices to be in a relationship nowadays I think with both men/women working and society norms today.

…and this isn’t just gold diggers I don’t think. I also think after people are parents (who actually CARE about their kids), your whole view of the world, life, etc…changes since it’s really not just about you anymore (at least that’s my view now)…and you sacrifice a lot for your kids, spouse, marriage, etc…

[joec]

Yay, stocks are are down a “mere” 3% now? Seriously, would like a drop of 20%+ personally…

Course, I am not fully invested yet and have been waiting for a larger pull back.

[joec]

You didn’t say what time frame? You can do guv’ment debt at 30 years for 3.76% now…

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/

I think this would be rather easy with corporate debt though. Some that pop out are MSFT, JNJ…AAA rating…I doubt you have to have that…Just make sure to hold to maturity:
http://reports.finance.yahoo.com/z1?b=1&cpl=-1.000000&cpu=-1.000000&mtl=-1&mtu=-1&pr=0&rl=1&ru=1&sf=y&so=d&stt=-&tc=1&yl=-1.000000&ytl=3.000000&ytu=-1.000000&yu=-1.000000

Long term bonds are risky since everyone thinks rates will go up…but we could just be like Japan for the next 20 years too…who knows.

[joec]

[quote=moneymaker]Kev, not sure if this is good advice, but I can totally see Charlie Sheen’s character doing it this way. Let her catch you with someone else, then she will think the breakup is her idea. Just make sure she doesn’t have a conceal/carry permit first, or own a gun for that matter.[/quote]

This is also why I think people almost purposely cheat to get caught to force a breakup since most people won’t stick around to allow that…They almost WANT to be caught.

I really think that you really aren’t in the same place as her and she’s giving you these ultimatums pretty much to hint that she doesn’t want to waste anymore time on you.

You think you’re being clear, but like men complain that women need to be direct, you’ll doing the same thing because being direct (and I agree) is very very hard with an insane/upset/crazy/sad/sobbing g/f / anyone…

Bottom line is you don’t want what she wants NOW…that may change and you read about stories of people breaking up, getting back together, or regretting breaking up later and never getting back together, but that’s where things are now…

Best of luck either way!

[joec]

kev, how old are you btw? +/- a few years is fine…What I’ve noticed is that as we get older, I think guys get more concerned with this whole marriage/finance thing and when 40+ comes around, they are probably too worried to bother. Again, maybe it’s really just not the person you want to make all the sacrifices for, but that’s what I’ve seen with some co-workers in that age bracket…

I think the Orange County/LA area IS very different too. For people who have lived/worked there, I think it’s much more superficial than say SD or the bay area.

It’s nice Blogstar that things are working out great, but I think it’s because you found a great spouse able to ignore the comments/society/etc…

Like some other people have posted, it’s very ok for society in general to not look down for woman who want to get married and have kids, but the opposite isn’t as true for the guy. It’s just how society currently is.

This will change in time, but it’s really not there yet.

In the end, I think many people should probably just stay single…Maybe there’d be less divorce then to begin with…

[joec]

I honestly can’t say…but as we’ve seen with the Melo-Roos news (MR used to pay bills for non-MR schools/meetings/upgrades/etc), I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s used for other stuff that may not be as related.

There is no tax a politician doesn’t like. 🙂

[joec]

[quote=Essbee]

Funny thing is, I live in on of the CFDs that is funding it, and I’ve talked to a lot of the parents in my kids’ preschool classes, and so far NONE are saying that they are planning to send their children there. The parents in 4S are really happy with Monterey Ridge and Stone Ranch elementaries. I wonder if it’s one of those things that is more attractive when it’s just out of reach…

[/quote]

…or, those parents don’t want anyone else to attend so they say it’s not good. 🙂

[joec]

One general problem with a lot of communities/municipalities is they need big business to pay taxes. Income taxes goes to the state, property tax to the county…etc…

You always see ways that citys want to get businesses in there since they generate a lot of sales taxes and there is no great planning for other revenues sources.

[Author]

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