[joec]

Unlike 2004-2008, I knew people who were buying multiple homes to flip every few months/years back then. All they wanted was the capital appreciation of a sale and it wasn’t about cash flowing or anything since they did interest only loans, ninja loans and in 6 months or a year, sell and multiply the game with 3 houses vs. 1.

They eventually loss all the homes of course. This kept rents low, but house prices high so that was why the bubble was then and not now IMO. Rent vs own/buy was out of whack back then.

Rents now are insane and like the person who is in escrow who was paying 1k/rent, if you had a 4k/month rent, you wouldn’t think it’s as risky when your rent maybe even MORE than your mortgage…even when not taking any tax benefits into account.

I see plenty of people in my hood paying 4k/month rents now so with rents so high, buying isn’t as risky unless you really don’t plan to stay long.

Everyone who bought in 2008-2011 are probably sitting on close to 50% equity and paying even less after a refi now.

TR:DR: No bubble, all are complaints that housing is too high (which it is, but rents are too high too)…

You would need a major economic collapse or some other event for it to drop materially (meaning 25+% drop).

[joec]

The stock market is risky because it’s at historic highs now, but also, good luck living and going to the schools that your stock ownership gets you.

At the end of the day, you have to pay to live somewhere so if you have kids (which seems like the plan) and care about schools and MORE important, the general economic wealth/education of your neighbors (economic segregation), you will need to buy a pretty expensive place to start.

A lot of these single/no kid male types totally have no idea what it’s like IMO when you have kids and how your life will change so pay no attention to them since their perspectives are way off IMO (at least compared to people with kids)…

Also, compare rent vs own of the same place and the rental housing is really insane. At econo-hell 4S, rent for homes are 4k/month and I think most people who bought in 09/10 pays like 2k/month mortgage (not counting prop tax). Add in tax break for such a high mortgage and high prop tax and you are prob doing much better if you bought early…even if you didn’t buy then, run your own numbers and decide what works best.

Since we know of plenty of people who rent homes here and pay the 4k/month, rents are just too high to not run numbers and see what makes the most sense…of course, if you can rent in a much smaller place for 1k/month and can get the schools you like, then that’s probably a better plan for now.

[joec]

I think it would be a bad idea to be an out of state landlord in those areas…My parents have rental prop in TX and with land being what it is in TX, they actually can’t sell and would have a loss…even though they have considered selling now.

Without Prop 13 like in CA, taxes keep going up so trying to be cash flow positive is a lot harder I think in TX.

As you prob know, prop tax in general is also much much higher in TX so any prop gains you have will be gone.

As for NV, I think there’s too much land there too…

Personally, I’d stick to smaller places in CA and try to cash flow…maybe pick places a bit off like Merced (weakest UC there) or maybe gentrification areas or put enough cash down that your monthly’s manageable/cash flowing.

[joec]

I lean towards the buy now if you can afford the payments and plan to just settle in San Diego…

I agree from looking at all these posts that these never buyers just have their lives go by and end up not doing anything. You will be “stuck” thinking it’s too high and a crash is coming, but honestly, no one really knows, but you DO know having a set place is a pretty nice feeling.

In the grand scheme of things, the property may go up or down, but ultimately, if the payments work out pretty comparably (for a similar place), I also think it’s not that bad to buy and maybe cheaper even with the tax breaks and you’re decent incomed.

One thing I’ve noticed after buying is the time “wasted” just looking every weekend and it’s a load off to have a place you know will have the same monthly payment month after month.

We know of someone who rents a home for 4k+ and had to leave/move in like 1 month since the owner came back and wanted to move back. Talk about major stress for the kids/schools/marriage.

If you had kids/more stuff in general, moving will be a major pain and a huge stress point. I know I’d hate to do that myself.

The good thing is you have time so you can shop and see what’s out there, but with 1-2 months supply tops now in most areas, pickings are slim to nothing so either you pay a ton or will never buy a house if it’s priced well or located well.

You mentioned SR and prices are pretty high there, unless you wanted an older or smaller place…but that’s pretty much how things are now so if you really find a place you love and can afford (which is very hard IMO), I think buying is good.

Not to mention the recent posts about lack of any new housing, builders simply can’t build or WON’T build anything less than 600k+ SFH.

That and the posts about demographics (others in your age group) also looking for housing and you have a major supply/demand imbalance…

I read some new CV places being released for 1 mil and 1.5 mil?

[joec]

I think if anything happens at any rental property, the person would just sue everyone possible and then let the lawyers sort it out…

Usually, the lawyers, if they have a decent enough case would just take the case since they have a high chance of winning and will prob just work for some settlement.

The legal system is why some of my relatives refuse to move to the US since they have a lot of wealth in Asia…

Course, I don’t see what stops China from just stepping in and taking everything as well and locking them up for some political offence…

[joec]

This thread is interesting…I agree that unless there is some subsidy, I doubt there will be much lower (< 600k) sfh construction anywhere in primer San Diego (coastal/north inland, not counting east or south SD). As mentioned in the home insurance thread, I think building costs have probably also sky rocketed from just 5 years ago as my home insurance has doubled pretty much. With so much anti-development all over SD and CA in general, I don't think supply will ever catch up to all the higher income jobs in the work centers so if I was lower income and didn't buy already, I'd seriously move. With the crash in 08-10, rents probably stayed the same more or less because people who lost homes still had to live somewhere supporting the rental market. I know a few people who were doing the massive leverage home buying during the bubble and loss all their homes. As mentioned, I think unless something drastic were to happen with people leaving SD or CA in general, prices won't do much, but probably steadily go up continuously as will rents. Good for the asset holders for sure... SF may drop a little I think since the tech IPO market seems to have slowed a bit. Rent there is insane I hear with 2bdrms going for 5k/month+.

[joec]

[quote=cvmom]Seems to me that people coming in from outside the country are really not the primary issue–the issue is people who are disenfranchised, not part of the community, don’t really see a future for themselves, and who want to get back at all of those who are on the other side of that divide. Those unhappy people can really come from anywhere, including internally. As long as there are people who don’t have hope, this danger is going to continue.[/quote]

I agree completely.

This is why IMO, this can just as easily happen in the US. In 50 years, with less jobs for “regular” people without college degrees, single males with low economic prospects as well as no family/wife (to want to provide a safe/better world), etc…are loose cannons to cause harm against society, others in general.

People in ISIS or people who commit acts of terror already don’t care if they live or die as also shown by some of these recent acts. They sorta know they will be killed anyways so as mentioned before, if someone is willing to die anyways, good luck trying to stop any of these random acts.

In some places in Europe with over 50% youth unemployment, I think this will occur even sooner than us here (I think Spain and Portugal).

I suppose it’s good I’d be dead in 50 so not my problem, but this is where we are heading.

[joec]

I read in an article today that the black man who was shot with the family apparently was pulled over like 54 times or something…

I don’t think anyone has the whole recording of what happened before the shooting, but I think cops are pretty much in a lose lose situation here.

Don’t be too careful and you could be dead, shoot someone and you are f*cked too.

Someone being pulled over 54 times and talking or reaching for a firearm is going to get most freaked out cops trigger happy I’d feel.

All the stats on the black crime is sorta bunk I think. If the majority of poorly educated, low paying economic folks are black in large cities, and if you, as a cop arrests even in normal situations more blacks than Asians or whites, you are going to be more concerned with blacks in any encounter I feel.

Yes, I agree that there is probably prejudice in police work and everything, but this probably won’t change in any of our lifetimes until society is a lot more integrated maybe in a few hundred years.

I suppose growing up around a fair amount of black folks and generally not liking them (yes, I have stated that I am probably racist like everyone I feel), you tend to develop perceptions and prejudice based on what you grew up with.

If you had or knew of friends jumped by blacks all the time, you’re not going to be liking blacks much yourself no matter what…

Overall, cops to me are just thugs with badges too so even though most cops are probably decent, there are plenty of bad apples…not to mention, the pay is pretty pathetic (I read they make like 55k or so) for what you have to put up with, especially in big cities.

I’d rather be a firefighter any day of the week.

[joec]

[quote=scaredyclassic]temecula streets are safe.

u will love it here.

i walk every day on the street. weaponless. nothing bad happened.[/quote]

dat’s cuz yoos whitey…

walk as an Islamic guy (or black) in a place that’s all white and the cops will be called…

[joec]

With all this stuff going on, why on earth would anyone want to be a cop in general? You’re a big target for terrorists, people who don’t like cops in general like in this case perhaps and the pay tends to be much worst than what I hear for fire-fighters who seem to be welcomed when they come and help in a scene.

I can see for many big cities with a lot of crime, no one would even bother being a cop since it’s a crap job and you have a big bullseye on your back.

That and the constant cam monitoring, being possibly shot anytime, etc and with all this press, seems like a dead end for most folks if you get scared or freaked in the moment if some wackjob has a gun.

I don’t know the specifics of why those other 2 people got shot the other day and the cops maybe are at fault, but it seems like if you are patrolling a bad area and everyone looks belligerent and give you dirty looks, you’d probably be pretty trigger happy too.

They really need black cops in these areas to patrol the areas they live in…

[joec]

This maybe why certain people simply refuse to buy in certain housing areas in the south bay…schools have a larger population of this happening and I don’t know the percentages, but I certainly don’t see that many latino/foreign types in my hood simply due to the cost of the housing around here.

Economic segregation seems to be the thing keeping houses in “better” school districts from dropping as much in prices due to higher demand…

Just one less thing to worry about I guess, esp with constant funding issues with school.

[joec]

[quote=Panderso]Another aspect to consider in the California vs Texas debate is state benefits, especially if you are looking to have kids. In California, a woman gets 3 to 4 months of paid disability/family leave and I believe the husband can take up to 6 weeks as well. Texas has no such program so you’ll be relying on your wife’s work’s disability insurance, which generally pays for 6 weeks max for her alone.[/quote]

I think CA is the only state that also has maternity/paternity care since I used it and took the max time off and got paid a little for it too.

No wonder I got laid off though 🙁

[joec]

The only consistent options strategy that has worked for me is covered calls.

Have the stock or don’t mind waiting for the stock to hit a certain price and don’t mind holding it and just sell calls against the position so while I wait, it generates a small return on positions that I probably won’t exit or want to sell at a certain price.

Great for company stock options or equity since you have a lot of shares.

Nets usually 5-10%? returns over a year or so? Depends on volatility of the stock.

In terms of recent trades, I manage my parents account and sold in May more so because they need more cash (they are house rich/cash poor) and felt the Brexit vote (I had no clue where that would head and am surprised like everyone else) and the US election can lead to increased volatility and general market unease. (that’s playing out now).

Also, if you look at it over the long term, stocks are near fairly high in terms of a few traditional metrics so why hold more equity now?

Due to being poor now, I don’t hold many stock positions personally, but do have VZ and a utility for yield and more defensive overall.

Overall, I think trying to trade is probably a losers game for most people since it takes too much time to get really good at it and even then, most people lose…

Note that however that I think even if you do 5-10% better than the average person (say 50% odds guessing on trades), you will do very well over the long term assuming you have enough capital to ride out investing for 10-20 years.

Most people don’t have that much time or money to bother honestly.

[joec]

I don’t follow this too much, but believe I read that they were planning to assess all the NON-MR houses like $85 or something a year to get funding to fund basic maintenance/upgrades/etc for all the schools that are older.

I also agree with the other poster that I have read that this does only affect the NON-MR schools as the MR schools, with all those fees are probably all newer with less maintenance/upgrade issues needed and are better funded overall.

Downsides of both, but I’d assume most homeowners/buyers factor MR cost into what they buy and where they live.

[joec]

Yeah, prop tax is much much higher in Texas and also, with so much land, I don’t think Texas is as good of an investment in terms of housing, also without prop 13 that we have here. I don’t think prop 13 would ever go away completely for primary home buyers even though they may try to change it, but with businesses and the wealthy controlling all the laws, it’s unlikely anything will ever change IMO).

My parents have places in TX and they said that they’d lose money if they were to sell the place they bought and are renting.

CA with Prop 13 is a very unique state (are we the only 1 in the country?) so if people move to Texas or Nevada, or wherever, I don’t think they would ever move back to CA due to the much much much higher housing cost.

Not to mention prop tax would be higher if they bought a new place compared to the one that was sold.

Overall, I think if your income is super high, then no state income tax can make a big difference. We know dual income doctors making mil+ in a tax free state and I can see why you’d want to do that, but if that wasn’t you, then I don’t think the numbers are that great assuming you buy something not super great in CA.

A high mortgage is also a greater tax deduction if you are high income in CA so that 3k mortgage compared to TX may actually end up being 2k/month where in TX, you may be claiming the standard deduction.

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