housing bubble?

[scaredyclassic]

i have overheard randomly three conversations in just a few days about buying houses, doing it quickly, and that things are going to be going up.

are we fixing for a crash?

i tend to think so.

[spdrun]

I think the flattening has already come. Here’s HOPING for another crash — should be one hell of a buying opportunity if the stupid money gets shaken out.

(This being said, you can flip even in a “slow” market — if you buy homes that need cash or are slow to close i.e. short sales and auctions, do some work, and sell them, you can always make money. A lot of people don’t want the bother of doing it themselves.)

[paramount]

I’ve noticed some leveling off – that could be seasonal though.

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t think we will get a crash, maybe a small decline or level off for a while.
It would take something external to the housing market to cause a crash IMO.
Housing market has been purged of weak hands already for the most part.

[scaredyclassic]

Maybe the weak hands are starting to buy.

It’s just weird to hear excited real estate chatter.

I guess I don’t like the fickleness of the market.

I should embrace its humanity

[The-Shoveler]

There is missing the crazy no doc loans of 2004-2006. so I don’t think so and the builders have just barely started to add inventory that is far behind need now after 5 years of almost no building.

[FlyerInHi]

Does anyone know the condo market in Temecula. Is the owner occupancy rate high enought that buyers can get mortgages?

[The-Shoveler]

The train has kind of left the station for Condo’s in TV (not sure there is much meat on the bone at this point).

They are selling new ones in the 150-200K range.

[FlyerInHi]

The condo market is a little weird. Not sure about Temecula but, in other markets that were at one point hard hit, condos have recoved nicely thanks to investors paying cash. But buyers wanting to get mortgages are having a hard time finding financing. That in turn is preventing investors from exiting.

San Diego seems ok with condo financing availability as far as I can tell.

[CA renter]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I don’t think we will get a crash, maybe a small decline or level off for a while.
It would take something external to the housing market to cause a crash IMO.
Housing market has been purged of weak hands already for the most part.[/quote]

IMHO, you don’t need weak hands to pop a bubble. All that’s needed is a change in perspective regarding a speculative asset. With all of the “investors” who’ve been piling into the housing market since 2008, you can be sure the speculative part of the bubble is already there. Raise interest rates, or have some other type of “investment” become the next new thing, and the housing market will fall on its face.

Too much speculation is what causes bubbles; the addition of easy credit just enables it to get into really dangerous territory. ZIRP means that money is cheap…and this money is most definitely finding its way into the housing market. Just because speculators aren’t using traditional mortgages doesn’t mean that they aren’t leveraging. I believe that they are, and more than most people think.

[scaredyclassic]

The zillow valuation on our place went up 45percent from the time I first unsuccessfully tried to refinance to now. Kinda fast … I like it here either way, but I gotta admit its fun to have more equity. Although my assumption is its not real and will vanish any moment.

Just blips on a screen that’s all it is.

[Jazzman]

Just read this is the Washington Post:

“[I]nventories of homes listed for sale rose 7.8 percent during July in Los Angeles, 12.5 percent in San Diego, signed contract offers were down [I]n San Diego, the monthly decline exceeded 10 percent. [S]igns of “buyer fatigue.” Affordability is beginning to erode down by 4.4 percent from the previous quarter. [P]rice gains in the double digits that were commonplace in coastal California, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Washington and parts of Florida starting 24 months ago have gradually begun to self-correct.”

I love that term “self-correct”. There something very correct about the self taking control.

[SK in CV]

[quote=Jazzman]Just read this is the Washington Post:

“[I]nventories of homes listed for sale rose 7.8 percent during July in Los Angeles, 12.5 percent in San Diego, signed contract offers were down [I]n San Diego, the monthly decline exceeded 10 percent. [S]igns of “buyer fatigue.” Affordability is beginning to erode down by 4.4 percent from the previous quarter. [P]rice gains in the double digits that were commonplace in coastal California, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Washington and parts of Florida starting 24 months ago have gradually begun to self-correct.”

I love that term “self-correct”. There something very correct about the self taking control.[/quote]

I’m not all that excited about the term “self-correct”, but beyond that, I’m not sure there’s any evidence yet of price changes. If YOY increases continue, we’re still seeing price increases, even if the rate of increase declines. Prices can remain flat for quite a few months still in those markets mentioned, and we’ll still have YOY increases. I don’t think it’s accurate to call it a “correction” unless prices fall significantly. It may happen, but I don’t think it’s happened yet. A leveling off is probably more likely, which would not be a correction.

[Jazzman]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=Jazzman]Just read this is the Washington Post:

“[I]nventories of homes listed for sale rose 7.8 percent during July in Los Angeles, 12.5 percent in San Diego, signed contract offers were down [I]n San Diego, the monthly decline exceeded 10 percent. [S]igns of “buyer fatigue.” Affordability is beginning to erode down by 4.4 percent from the previous quarter. [P]rice gains in the double digits that were commonplace in coastal California, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Washington and parts of Florida starting 24 months ago have gradually begun to self-correct.”

I love that term “self-correct”. There something very correct about the self taking control.[/quote]

I’m not all that excited about the term “self-correct”, but beyond that, I’m not sure there’s any evidence yet of price changes. If YOY increases continue, we’re still seeing price increases, even if the rate of increase declines. Prices can remain flat for quite a few months still in those markets mentioned, and we’ll still have YOY increases. I don’t think it’s accurate to call it a “correction” unless prices fall significantly. It may happen, but I don’t think it’s happened yet. A leveling off is probably more likely, which would not be a correction.[/quote]
If interest rates rise and inventory increases, it stands to reason we’ll see the inverse reaction in prices. It’s probably more a case of whether the air seeps out slowly enough that we don’t notice it. Flat eventually becomes a decline.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Jazzman]

. . . [S]igns of “buyer fatigue.”…

[/quote]

I don’t understand the term, “buyer fatigue.” I had never heard of it until I read the term here.

Let us examine the possible causes of “fatigued-buyer syndrome.”

If they are actually a perpetual shopper who never makes any offers, then they aren’t really a “buyer.” They are a “shopper” who is undoubtedly trying to familiarize themselves with what’s on offer (not using their agent to his/her fullest advantage).

If they are a prospective buyer who makes offer(s) (lowball?) which repeatedly get rejected in favor of other offers offering better terms or more money or both, and they refuse to accept or counter any counter-offers presented to them, then they are undoubtedly “shopping” in the wrong area(s) and wasting their time (AND their agent’s time).

If they are prospective buyers who have not been properly pre-approved for the size mortgage they need which is enough to consummate a deal on any property they make offers on, then again, they have chosen to waste theirs and their agent’s time.

If they are consistently looking at properties and in areas where they know they cannot qualify to purchase in, that is another self-made time waster. If they DON’T KNOW that they are unqualified to make offers in the area(s) they are shopping in, then they (and their agents) have not properly done their due diligence prior to beginning a house hunt and thus, are wasting everyone’s time.

If they have an “accepted” (lol) offer on a SS in which they have been waiting for months to hear if the deal is going to fly, they have consciously chosen to deal with the deadbeats they are dealing with (instead of “traditional” or institutional sellers) and so deserve whatever “fatigue” that comes with that territory. If their offer did not end up being accepted by sellers’ lender(s), then they, at all times, were free to shop elsewhere and terminate the SS escrow at any time so have no one to blame but themselves that they don’t yet have a consummated deal to show for all their “effort.”

And I don’t want to hear the excuse, “I’m `fatigued’ and so will suspend my search for now (or indefinitely) because every property I wanted (to make an offer on) already had all-cash offer(s).”

The key phrase here is “…every property I wanted…”

If all the properties you wanted were sold to all-cash buyers and you didn’t have access to as much cash as they did and/or needed a mortgage for purchase money, then those properties were located in the wrong area for you or their condition was too good for you … or both.

Again, self-inflicted “fatigue” … all just whining.

******

My gut feeling is that “fatigued buyers” (IF they actually exist) create their OWN fatigue. REALISTIC, PRE-APPROVED buyers with extremely knowledgeable agents don’t get to the point where they become “fatigued” because they have already made a deal, likely closed it and moved in.

“Dearth of inventory” be damned.

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