[Duck]

Hmmm, all of those communites are North County coastal. Must be a coincidence.

[Duck]

Hmmm, all of those communites are North County coastal. Must be a coincidence.

[Duck]

Hmmm, all of those communites are North County coastal. Must be a coincidence.

[Duck]

Hmmm, all of those communites are North County coastal. Must be a coincidence.

[Duck]

Hmmm, all of those communites are North County coastal. Must be a coincidence.

[Duck]

I have been unable to find an option pricing chain for real estate at the CME although I believe one exists if you are a CME member or have a broker who is. You should be able to buy 2011 puts in 5 point increments from today’s current Case Shiller price, and hedge that way. The put gives you the right to sell at today’s prices for whatever premium they charge.

BTW, Shiller has been so visible recently because he licenses his data and in addition to the futures and options market he is trying to work with insurers who would do the hedging for you and issue “equity insurance” of sorts.

I don’t know much about futures/options theory, but I can’t believe this is a very efficient market right now because it’s so thinly traded.

BTW there is an outfit called REX and Co. that offers a deal where they will give you free use of some of your current equity in exchange for a percentage of the gain/loss on your home when you sell. It’s not a loan. It seems like it might be a good hedge if you are selling in the next 2-4 years and have a lot of equity.

[Duck]

I have been unable to find an option pricing chain for real estate at the CME although I believe one exists if you are a CME member or have a broker who is. You should be able to buy 2011 puts in 5 point increments from today’s current Case Shiller price, and hedge that way. The put gives you the right to sell at today’s prices for whatever premium they charge.

BTW, Shiller has been so visible recently because he licenses his data and in addition to the futures and options market he is trying to work with insurers who would do the hedging for you and issue “equity insurance” of sorts.

I don’t know much about futures/options theory, but I can’t believe this is a very efficient market right now because it’s so thinly traded.

BTW there is an outfit called REX and Co. that offers a deal where they will give you free use of some of your current equity in exchange for a percentage of the gain/loss on your home when you sell. It’s not a loan. It seems like it might be a good hedge if you are selling in the next 2-4 years and have a lot of equity.

[Duck]

I have been unable to find an option pricing chain for real estate at the CME although I believe one exists if you are a CME member or have a broker who is. You should be able to buy 2011 puts in 5 point increments from today’s current Case Shiller price, and hedge that way. The put gives you the right to sell at today’s prices for whatever premium they charge.

BTW, Shiller has been so visible recently because he licenses his data and in addition to the futures and options market he is trying to work with insurers who would do the hedging for you and issue “equity insurance” of sorts.

I don’t know much about futures/options theory, but I can’t believe this is a very efficient market right now because it’s so thinly traded.

BTW there is an outfit called REX and Co. that offers a deal where they will give you free use of some of your current equity in exchange for a percentage of the gain/loss on your home when you sell. It’s not a loan. It seems like it might be a good hedge if you are selling in the next 2-4 years and have a lot of equity.

[Duck]

I’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.

[Duck]

I’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.

[Duck]

I’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.

[Duck]

Don’t know much about 4S except that they have some great soccer fields. I looked through the MLS to get some kind of feel for it since this drew so many responses and here’s my off the cuff takes:

1) Wow, the tax rate is very high. Almost 2% of the sales price.

2) Looking at the first 30 or so listngs about half are short sales, and quite a few others are RE agents selling their homes or Hovnanian closing out there homes. Looks like there was a lot of specualtion and a lot of 100% loans in 2003-2005. Maybe the “S” is for short sale.

3) Of the homes that are not short sales, just about everyone has “motivated” or “Owner needs to sell” in the confidential remarks. Those are some sharp agents helpng their sellers get top dollar. Geesh!

4) There are some decent size lots, but I noticed very few pools for a community that gets very hot for a good part of the year. Could this be because folks spent so much on the huse they didn’t have money left over for improvements? I know they have a community pool, but if you like to spend time in the water those get very tired after a while. Load up the kids, car, stuff, etc.

[Duck]

Don’t know much about 4S except that they have some great soccer fields. I looked through the MLS to get some kind of feel for it since this drew so many responses and here’s my off the cuff takes:

1) Wow, the tax rate is very high. Almost 2% of the sales price.

2) Looking at the first 30 or so listngs about half are short sales, and quite a few others are RE agents selling their homes or Hovnanian closing out there homes. Looks like there was a lot of specualtion and a lot of 100% loans in 2003-2005. Maybe the “S” is for short sale.

3) Of the homes that are not short sales, just about everyone has “motivated” or “Owner needs to sell” in the confidential remarks. Those are some sharp agents helpng their sellers get top dollar. Geesh!

4) There are some decent size lots, but I noticed very few pools for a community that gets very hot for a good part of the year. Could this be because folks spent so much on the huse they didn’t have money left over for improvements? I know they have a community pool, but if you like to spend time in the water those get very tired after a while. Load up the kids, car, stuff, etc.

[Duck]

Don’t know much about 4S except that they have some great soccer fields. I looked through the MLS to get some kind of feel for it since this drew so many responses and here’s my off the cuff takes:

1) Wow, the tax rate is very high. Almost 2% of the sales price.

2) Looking at the first 30 or so listngs about half are short sales, and quite a few others are RE agents selling their homes or Hovnanian closing out there homes. Looks like there was a lot of specualtion and a lot of 100% loans in 2003-2005. Maybe the “S” is for short sale.

3) Of the homes that are not short sales, just about everyone has “motivated” or “Owner needs to sell” in the confidential remarks. Those are some sharp agents helpng their sellers get top dollar. Geesh!

4) There are some decent size lots, but I noticed very few pools for a community that gets very hot for a good part of the year. Could this be because folks spent so much on the huse they didn’t have money left over for improvements? I know they have a community pool, but if you like to spend time in the water those get very tired after a while. Load up the kids, car, stuff, etc.

[Duck]

I wouldn’t short insurance companies. The estimated $1.6 billion loss is peanuts to them and this year’s losses are much less than they had planned for thanks to no hurricanes.

If you want to short think banks and brokers although with another Fed cut likely next week that’s not for sure. I still think the homebuilders have another leg down but the short interest is so high in most of them that all the covering has kept them flat or even higher for the last couple months.

[Author]

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