Fed predictions?

[HereWeGo]

Who’s up for another round of predictions wrt/ the Fed policy statement on Wednesday?

I’ll go with the consensus 25 bps cut, but I think the chance of no move is greater than the chance of another 50 bps cut.

[sdrealtor]

25 bps is in the bag

[stansd]

Very grumpy about the conduct of Helicopter Ben, who has now earned his nickname.

Agree with sdrealtor.

Stan

[stansd]

Very grumpy about the conduct of Helicopter Ben, who has now earned his nickname.

Agree with sdrealtor.

Stan

[stansd]

Very grumpy about the conduct of Helicopter Ben, who has now earned his nickname.

Agree with sdrealtor.

Stan

[sdrealtor]

25 bps is in the bag

[sdrealtor]

25 bps is in the bag

[cr]

I hate to say it but I expect the same. Everyone I hear says that same thing – “it’s baked in the cake”

Although I think it must be “brownies” and not a cake because I don’t see the justification. The dow started down several days last week, and recovered every time. Add in oil and the weak dollar?

I asked this last time and they cut it too though, so there you go.

[oxfordrick]

I expect 50 – Bernanke knows just how desperate the housing situation will become, and will do anything he can to stimulate/resuscitate the economy before real estate drags it into deflation and depression.

[Arty]

No change…sometimes a deflation is good. I was in China last week. The dollars is literally lowing from day 1 of my visit till the last day (7.436 to about 7.40). Btw, FED has to buy T-bonds to lower the interest rate, it will be hard when everyone is selling and who is paying the cost?

[Arty]

No change…sometimes a deflation is good. I was in China last week. The dollars is literally lowing from day 1 of my visit till the last day (7.436 to about 7.40). Btw, FED has to buy T-bonds to lower the interest rate, it will be hard when everyone is selling and who is paying the cost?

[Arty]

No change…sometimes a deflation is good. I was in China last week. The dollars is literally lowing from day 1 of my visit till the last day (7.436 to about 7.40). Btw, FED has to buy T-bonds to lower the interest rate, it will be hard when everyone is selling and who is paying the cost?

[oxfordrick]

I expect 50 – Bernanke knows just how desperate the housing situation will become, and will do anything he can to stimulate/resuscitate the economy before real estate drags it into deflation and depression.

[oxfordrick]

I expect 50 – Bernanke knows just how desperate the housing situation will become, and will do anything he can to stimulate/resuscitate the economy before real estate drags it into deflation and depression.

[cr]

I hate to say it but I expect the same. Everyone I hear says that same thing – “it’s baked in the cake”

Although I think it must be “brownies” and not a cake because I don’t see the justification. The dow started down several days last week, and recovered every time. Add in oil and the weak dollar?

I asked this last time and they cut it too though, so there you go.

[cr]

I hate to say it but I expect the same. Everyone I hear says that same thing – “it’s baked in the cake”

Although I think it must be “brownies” and not a cake because I don’t see the justification. The dow started down several days last week, and recovered every time. Add in oil and the weak dollar?

I asked this last time and they cut it too though, so there you go.

[tucker…]

from Market Ticker

Last week some $75 million of "fed funds" (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and "a bunch" went through in the low to mid 7s.

No, I didn't mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.

Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the "high" was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was "real".

It was.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm

[SD Realtor]

My guess is it stays where it is.

SD Realtor

[Raybyrnes]

They made their cut this year with .50. Expect to see no cut. Rebalance now into cash and wait for the market to correct following the news.

[Raybyrnes]

They made their cut this year with .50. Expect to see no cut. Rebalance now into cash and wait for the market to correct following the news.

[Raybyrnes]

They made their cut this year with .50. Expect to see no cut. Rebalance now into cash and wait for the market to correct following the news.

[SD Realtor]

My guess is it stays where it is.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

My guess is it stays where it is.

SD Realtor

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Last week some $75 million of “fed funds” (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and “a bunch” went through in the low to mid 7s.

No, I didn’t mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.

Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the “high” was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was “real”.

It was.

What exactly is “a bunch”.

The MOST that could have been transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. I see no indication of a “bunch”

The low was 4.65 and the volume weighted average was 4.86.
The high was 15. Using a little algebra would tell us that the maximum possible amount transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. And that’s the maximum amount.
Is that a bunch ? Less than 2% of a single day’s volume ?

Let’s look into the facts before sounding the alarms.

Expect a quarter-point cut.

[bsrsharma]

Canadian dollar hits 47-year high

The Canadian dollar reached on Monday a 47-year high versus the US greenback, gaining on the US currency’s recent weakness, as well as soaring demand for oil and other natural resources. At 1500 GMT, the American dollar was worth only 95.47 Canadian dollars, while the loonie, a sobriquet given to the Canadian dollar, was being traded for 1.0474 US dollars.

According to the Bank of Canada, the loonie had last seen such heights in March 1960.

Analysts noted that all major currencies were increasing in value against the US dollar in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday………

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071029182359.o074k8pl&show_article=1

[kewp]

I’ll vote for another cut.

[kewp]

I’ll vote for another cut.

[kewp]

I’ll vote for another cut.

[patientlywaiting]

bsrsharma, your post are always very timely and very informative. Thanks for posting.

[Duck]

I’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.

[HereWeGo]

Looks like either a 1/4 point cut or a hold at this point.

link

I don’t see the huge rout postulated by the bulls if the Fed holds. Sure, there will be a pullback, but probably no more than 200 pts, if that.

[HereWeGo]

Looks like either a 1/4 point cut or a hold at this point.

link

I don’t see the huge rout postulated by the bulls if the Fed holds. Sure, there will be a pullback, but probably no more than 200 pts, if that.

[HereWeGo]

Looks like either a 1/4 point cut or a hold at this point.

link

I don’t see the huge rout postulated by the bulls if the Fed holds. Sure, there will be a pullback, but probably no more than 200 pts, if that.

[Duck]

I’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.

[Duck]

I’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.

[patientlywaiting]

bsrsharma, your post are always very timely and very informative. Thanks for posting.

[patientlywaiting]

bsrsharma, your post are always very timely and very informative. Thanks for posting.

[bsrsharma]

Canadian dollar hits 47-year high

The Canadian dollar reached on Monday a 47-year high versus the US greenback, gaining on the US currency’s recent weakness, as well as soaring demand for oil and other natural resources. At 1500 GMT, the American dollar was worth only 95.47 Canadian dollars, while the loonie, a sobriquet given to the Canadian dollar, was being traded for 1.0474 US dollars.

According to the Bank of Canada, the loonie had last seen such heights in March 1960.

Analysts noted that all major currencies were increasing in value against the US dollar in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday………

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071029182359.o074k8pl&show_article=1

[bsrsharma]

Canadian dollar hits 47-year high

The Canadian dollar reached on Monday a 47-year high versus the US greenback, gaining on the US currency’s recent weakness, as well as soaring demand for oil and other natural resources. At 1500 GMT, the American dollar was worth only 95.47 Canadian dollars, while the loonie, a sobriquet given to the Canadian dollar, was being traded for 1.0474 US dollars.

According to the Bank of Canada, the loonie had last seen such heights in March 1960.

Analysts noted that all major currencies were increasing in value against the US dollar in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday………

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071029182359.o074k8pl&show_article=1

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Last week some $75 million of “fed funds” (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and “a bunch” went through in the low to mid 7s.

No, I didn’t mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.

Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the “high” was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was “real”.

It was.

What exactly is “a bunch”.

The MOST that could have been transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. I see no indication of a “bunch”

The low was 4.65 and the volume weighted average was 4.86.
The high was 15. Using a little algebra would tell us that the maximum possible amount transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. And that’s the maximum amount.
Is that a bunch ? Less than 2% of a single day’s volume ?

Let’s look into the facts before sounding the alarms.

Expect a quarter-point cut.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Last week some $75 million of “fed funds” (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and “a bunch” went through in the low to mid 7s.

No, I didn’t mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.

Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the “high” was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was “real”.

It was.

What exactly is “a bunch”.

The MOST that could have been transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. I see no indication of a “bunch”

The low was 4.65 and the volume weighted average was 4.86.
The high was 15. Using a little algebra would tell us that the maximum possible amount transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. And that’s the maximum amount.
Is that a bunch ? Less than 2% of a single day’s volume ?

Let’s look into the facts before sounding the alarms.

Expect a quarter-point cut.

[tucker…]

from Market Ticker

Last week some $75 million of "fed funds" (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and "a bunch" went through in the low to mid 7s.

No, I didn't mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.

Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the "high" was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was "real".

It was.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm

[tucker…]

from Market Ticker

Last week some $75 million of "fed funds" (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and "a bunch" went through in the low to mid 7s.

No, I didn't mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.

Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the "high" was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was "real".

It was.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm

[cr]

Still waiting to hear the results of the meeting, but with the 3.9% GROWTH last quarter, stocks relatively stable in the last few weeks (up today), oil at $94/barrel, the dollar at the lowest point in years, and unemployment still relatively low how can they justify the need for a cut now? If anything, doesn’t this qualify as a reason to raise rates and pull the dollar out of the toilet?

Does the FED care more about the value of the dollar or the investors on wall street?

[cr]

…and the answer is…

Investors.

And only AFTER the cut do they think about inflation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/wall_street.html

Although the dollar rose slightly over the Euro after. At least currently.

[cr]

…and the answer is…

Investors.

And only AFTER the cut do they think about inflation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/wall_street.html

Although the dollar rose slightly over the Euro after. At least currently.

[cr]

…and the answer is…

Investors.

And only AFTER the cut do they think about inflation.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/wall_street.html

Although the dollar rose slightly over the Euro after. At least currently.

[djrobsd]

.25 cut… In the bag just like sdrealtor said… done deal…

http://finance.yahoo.com/

That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….

And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!

[sdrealtor]

It’s done .25% cut. Take it out of the bag!

[sdrealtor]

It’s done .25% cut. Take it out of the bag!

[sdrealtor]

It’s done .25% cut. Take it out of the bag!

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….

And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!

That 62.50 per month for you is roughly equivalent to a decrease in gas prices of $1 per gallon.
(assuming $3 per gallon, one 16-gallon tank fill per week).

I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?

[Arraya]

I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?

Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.

[HereWeGo]

The Fed has definitely decided that a little hyperinflation is a good thing. Might as well go long speculative tech and commodities at this point. Emerging markets look good as well.

The dollar is toast, though.

[HereWeGo]

The Fed has definitely decided that a little hyperinflation is a good thing. Might as well go long speculative tech and commodities at this point. Emerging markets look good as well.

The dollar is toast, though.

[HereWeGo]

The Fed has definitely decided that a little hyperinflation is a good thing. Might as well go long speculative tech and commodities at this point. Emerging markets look good as well.

The dollar is toast, though.

[cr]

“Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.”

You’ll get hit everywhere else.

[cr]

“Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.”

You’ll get hit everywhere else.

[cr]

“Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.”

You’ll get hit everywhere else.

[Arraya]

I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?

Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.

[Arraya]

I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?

Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….

And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!

That 62.50 per month for you is roughly equivalent to a decrease in gas prices of $1 per gallon.
(assuming $3 per gallon, one 16-gallon tank fill per week).

I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….

And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!

That 62.50 per month for you is roughly equivalent to a decrease in gas prices of $1 per gallon.
(assuming $3 per gallon, one 16-gallon tank fill per week).

I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?

[djrobsd]

.25 cut… In the bag just like sdrealtor said… done deal…

http://finance.yahoo.com/

That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….

And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!

[djrobsd]

.25 cut… In the bag just like sdrealtor said… done deal…

http://finance.yahoo.com/

That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….

And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!

[cr]

Still waiting to hear the results of the meeting, but with the 3.9% GROWTH last quarter, stocks relatively stable in the last few weeks (up today), oil at $94/barrel, the dollar at the lowest point in years, and unemployment still relatively low how can they justify the need for a cut now? If anything, doesn’t this qualify as a reason to raise rates and pull the dollar out of the toilet?

Does the FED care more about the value of the dollar or the investors on wall street?

[cr]

Still waiting to hear the results of the meeting, but with the 3.9% GROWTH last quarter, stocks relatively stable in the last few weeks (up today), oil at $94/barrel, the dollar at the lowest point in years, and unemployment still relatively low how can they justify the need for a cut now? If anything, doesn’t this qualify as a reason to raise rates and pull the dollar out of the toilet?

Does the FED care more about the value of the dollar or the investors on wall street?

[Author]

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