Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Fed predictions?
- This topic has 66 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 4 months ago by
cr.
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AuthorPosts
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October 28, 2007 at 3:05 PM #10751
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October 28, 2007 at 3:59 PM #92685
sdrealtor
Participant25 bps is in the bag
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October 28, 2007 at 4:21 PM #92688
stansd
ParticipantVery grumpy about the conduct of Helicopter Ben, who has now earned his nickname.
Agree with sdrealtor.
Stan
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October 28, 2007 at 4:21 PM #92719
stansd
ParticipantVery grumpy about the conduct of Helicopter Ben, who has now earned his nickname.
Agree with sdrealtor.
Stan
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October 28, 2007 at 4:21 PM #92731
stansd
ParticipantVery grumpy about the conduct of Helicopter Ben, who has now earned his nickname.
Agree with sdrealtor.
Stan
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October 28, 2007 at 3:59 PM #92716
sdrealtor
Participant25 bps is in the bag
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October 28, 2007 at 3:59 PM #92728
sdrealtor
Participant25 bps is in the bag
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October 28, 2007 at 4:48 PM #92691
cr
ParticipantI hate to say it but I expect the same. Everyone I hear says that same thing – “it’s baked in the cake”
Although I think it must be “brownies” and not a cake because I don’t see the justification. The dow started down several days last week, and recovered every time. Add in oil and the weak dollar?
I asked this last time and they cut it too though, so there you go.
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October 28, 2007 at 9:27 PM #92723
oxfordrick
ParticipantI expect 50 – Bernanke knows just how desperate the housing situation will become, and will do anything he can to stimulate/resuscitate the economy before real estate drags it into deflation and depression.
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October 28, 2007 at 11:46 PM #92762
Arty
ParticipantNo change…sometimes a deflation is good. I was in China last week. The dollars is literally lowing from day 1 of my visit till the last day (7.436 to about 7.40). Btw, FED has to buy T-bonds to lower the interest rate, it will be hard when everyone is selling and who is paying the cost?
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October 28, 2007 at 11:46 PM #92793
Arty
ParticipantNo change…sometimes a deflation is good. I was in China last week. The dollars is literally lowing from day 1 of my visit till the last day (7.436 to about 7.40). Btw, FED has to buy T-bonds to lower the interest rate, it will be hard when everyone is selling and who is paying the cost?
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October 28, 2007 at 11:46 PM #92806
Arty
ParticipantNo change…sometimes a deflation is good. I was in China last week. The dollars is literally lowing from day 1 of my visit till the last day (7.436 to about 7.40). Btw, FED has to buy T-bonds to lower the interest rate, it will be hard when everyone is selling and who is paying the cost?
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October 28, 2007 at 9:27 PM #92755
oxfordrick
ParticipantI expect 50 – Bernanke knows just how desperate the housing situation will become, and will do anything he can to stimulate/resuscitate the economy before real estate drags it into deflation and depression.
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October 28, 2007 at 9:27 PM #92766
oxfordrick
ParticipantI expect 50 – Bernanke knows just how desperate the housing situation will become, and will do anything he can to stimulate/resuscitate the economy before real estate drags it into deflation and depression.
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October 28, 2007 at 4:48 PM #92722
cr
ParticipantI hate to say it but I expect the same. Everyone I hear says that same thing – “it’s baked in the cake”
Although I think it must be “brownies” and not a cake because I don’t see the justification. The dow started down several days last week, and recovered every time. Add in oil and the weak dollar?
I asked this last time and they cut it too though, so there you go.
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October 28, 2007 at 4:48 PM #92734
cr
ParticipantI hate to say it but I expect the same. Everyone I hear says that same thing – “it’s baked in the cake”
Although I think it must be “brownies” and not a cake because I don’t see the justification. The dow started down several days last week, and recovered every time. Add in oil and the weak dollar?
I asked this last time and they cut it too though, so there you go.
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October 28, 2007 at 11:58 PM #92777
tucker…
Participantfrom Market Ticker
Last week some $75 million of "fed funds" (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and "a bunch" went through in the low to mid 7s.
No, I didn't mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.
Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the "high" was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was "real".
It was.
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October 29, 2007 at 12:04 AM #92780
SD Realtor
ParticipantMy guess is it stays where it is.
SD Realtor
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October 29, 2007 at 12:11 AM #92786
Raybyrnes
ParticipantThey made their cut this year with .50. Expect to see no cut. Rebalance now into cash and wait for the market to correct following the news.
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October 29, 2007 at 12:11 AM #92817
Raybyrnes
ParticipantThey made their cut this year with .50. Expect to see no cut. Rebalance now into cash and wait for the market to correct following the news.
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October 29, 2007 at 12:11 AM #92830
Raybyrnes
ParticipantThey made their cut this year with .50. Expect to see no cut. Rebalance now into cash and wait for the market to correct following the news.
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October 29, 2007 at 12:04 AM #92811
SD Realtor
ParticipantMy guess is it stays where it is.
SD Realtor
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October 29, 2007 at 12:04 AM #92824
SD Realtor
ParticipantMy guess is it stays where it is.
SD Realtor
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October 29, 2007 at 10:42 AM #92875
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantLast week some $75 million of “fed funds” (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and “a bunch” went through in the low to mid 7s.
No, I didn’t mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.
Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the “high” was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was “real”.
It was.
What exactly is “a bunch”.
The MOST that could have been transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. I see no indication of a “bunch”
The low was 4.65 and the volume weighted average was 4.86.
The high was 15. Using a little algebra would tell us that the maximum possible amount transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. And that’s the maximum amount.
Is that a bunch ? Less than 2% of a single day’s volume ?Let’s look into the facts before sounding the alarms.
Expect a quarter-point cut.
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October 29, 2007 at 1:40 PM #92931
bsrsharma
ParticipantCanadian dollar hits 47-year high
The Canadian dollar reached on Monday a 47-year high versus the US greenback, gaining on the US currency’s recent weakness, as well as soaring demand for oil and other natural resources. At 1500 GMT, the American dollar was worth only 95.47 Canadian dollars, while the loonie, a sobriquet given to the Canadian dollar, was being traded for 1.0474 US dollars.
According to the Bank of Canada, the loonie had last seen such heights in March 1960.
Analysts noted that all major currencies were increasing in value against the US dollar in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday………
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071029182359.o074k8pl&show_article=1
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October 29, 2007 at 1:47 PM #92934
kewp
ParticipantI’ll vote for another cut.
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October 29, 2007 at 1:47 PM #92968
kewp
ParticipantI’ll vote for another cut.
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October 29, 2007 at 1:47 PM #92980
kewp
ParticipantI’ll vote for another cut.
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October 29, 2007 at 1:49 PM #92937
patientlywaiting
Participantbsrsharma, your post are always very timely and very informative. Thanks for posting.
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October 29, 2007 at 2:00 PM #92946
Duck
ParticipantI’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.
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October 29, 2007 at 9:55 PM #93123
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October 29, 2007 at 9:55 PM #93158
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October 29, 2007 at 9:55 PM #93170
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October 29, 2007 at 2:00 PM #92981
Duck
ParticipantI’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.
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October 29, 2007 at 2:00 PM #92992
Duck
ParticipantI’ll go with Bill Gross’s outlook which is rate cuts until we get to 3.5% or a real short rate of 1%.
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October 29, 2007 at 1:49 PM #92972
patientlywaiting
Participantbsrsharma, your post are always very timely and very informative. Thanks for posting.
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October 29, 2007 at 1:49 PM #92984
patientlywaiting
Participantbsrsharma, your post are always very timely and very informative. Thanks for posting.
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October 29, 2007 at 1:40 PM #92965
bsrsharma
ParticipantCanadian dollar hits 47-year high
The Canadian dollar reached on Monday a 47-year high versus the US greenback, gaining on the US currency’s recent weakness, as well as soaring demand for oil and other natural resources. At 1500 GMT, the American dollar was worth only 95.47 Canadian dollars, while the loonie, a sobriquet given to the Canadian dollar, was being traded for 1.0474 US dollars.
According to the Bank of Canada, the loonie had last seen such heights in March 1960.
Analysts noted that all major currencies were increasing in value against the US dollar in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday………
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071029182359.o074k8pl&show_article=1
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October 29, 2007 at 1:40 PM #92977
bsrsharma
ParticipantCanadian dollar hits 47-year high
The Canadian dollar reached on Monday a 47-year high versus the US greenback, gaining on the US currency’s recent weakness, as well as soaring demand for oil and other natural resources. At 1500 GMT, the American dollar was worth only 95.47 Canadian dollars, while the loonie, a sobriquet given to the Canadian dollar, was being traded for 1.0474 US dollars.
According to the Bank of Canada, the loonie had last seen such heights in March 1960.
Analysts noted that all major currencies were increasing in value against the US dollar in anticipation of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday………
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071029182359.o074k8pl&show_article=1
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October 29, 2007 at 10:42 AM #92907
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantLast week some $75 million of “fed funds” (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and “a bunch” went through in the low to mid 7s.
No, I didn’t mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.
Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the “high” was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was “real”.
It was.
What exactly is “a bunch”.
The MOST that could have been transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. I see no indication of a “bunch”
The low was 4.65 and the volume weighted average was 4.86.
The high was 15. Using a little algebra would tell us that the maximum possible amount transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. And that’s the maximum amount.
Is that a bunch ? Less than 2% of a single day’s volume ?Let’s look into the facts before sounding the alarms.
Expect a quarter-point cut.
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October 29, 2007 at 10:42 AM #92921
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantLast week some $75 million of “fed funds” (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and “a bunch” went through in the low to mid 7s.
No, I didn’t mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.
Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the “high” was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was “real”.
It was.
What exactly is “a bunch”.
The MOST that could have been transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. I see no indication of a “bunch”
The low was 4.65 and the volume weighted average was 4.86.
The high was 15. Using a little algebra would tell us that the maximum possible amount transacted at 15% would be about 2% of the daily volume. And that’s the maximum amount.
Is that a bunch ? Less than 2% of a single day’s volume ?Let’s look into the facts before sounding the alarms.
Expect a quarter-point cut.
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October 28, 2007 at 11:58 PM #92808
tucker…
Participantfrom Market Ticker
Last week some $75 million of "fed funds" (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and "a bunch" went through in the low to mid 7s.
No, I didn't mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.
Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the "high" was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was "real".
It was.
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October 28, 2007 at 11:58 PM #92821
tucker…
Participantfrom Market Ticker
Last week some $75 million of "fed funds" (that is, interbank overnight credit) was transacted at a rate of 15%, and "a bunch" went through in the low to mid 7s.
No, I didn't mistype that. You can find the actual data at this link.
Originally I, and everyone else, assumed that the "high" was an error. A bad print. That there was no chance this was "real".
It was.
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October 31, 2007 at 10:20 AM #93643
cr
ParticipantStill waiting to hear the results of the meeting, but with the 3.9% GROWTH last quarter, stocks relatively stable in the last few weeks (up today), oil at $94/barrel, the dollar at the lowest point in years, and unemployment still relatively low how can they justify the need for a cut now? If anything, doesn’t this qualify as a reason to raise rates and pull the dollar out of the toilet?
Does the FED care more about the value of the dollar or the investors on wall street?
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October 31, 2007 at 11:35 AM #93703
cr
Participant…and the answer is…
Investors.
And only AFTER the cut do they think about inflation.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/wall_street.html
Although the dollar rose slightly over the Euro after. At least currently.
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October 31, 2007 at 11:35 AM #93737
cr
Participant…and the answer is…
Investors.
And only AFTER the cut do they think about inflation.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/wall_street.html
Although the dollar rose slightly over the Euro after. At least currently.
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October 31, 2007 at 11:35 AM #93747
cr
Participant…and the answer is…
Investors.
And only AFTER the cut do they think about inflation.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071031/wall_street.html
Although the dollar rose slightly over the Euro after. At least currently.
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October 31, 2007 at 11:35 AM #93700
djrobsd
Participant.25 cut… In the bag just like sdrealtor said… done deal…
That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….
And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!
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October 31, 2007 at 11:47 AM #93715
sdrealtor
ParticipantIt’s done .25% cut. Take it out of the bag!
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October 31, 2007 at 11:47 AM #93749
sdrealtor
ParticipantIt’s done .25% cut. Take it out of the bag!
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October 31, 2007 at 11:47 AM #93759
sdrealtor
ParticipantIt’s done .25% cut. Take it out of the bag!
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October 31, 2007 at 12:08 PM #93730
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantThat’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….
And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!
That 62.50 per month for you is roughly equivalent to a decrease in gas prices of $1 per gallon.
(assuming $3 per gallon, one 16-gallon tank fill per week).I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?
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October 31, 2007 at 12:14 PM #93740
Arraya
ParticipantI think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?
Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.
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October 31, 2007 at 1:25 PM #93781
HereWeGo
ParticipantThe Fed has definitely decided that a little hyperinflation is a good thing. Might as well go long speculative tech and commodities at this point. Emerging markets look good as well.
The dollar is toast, though.
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October 31, 2007 at 1:25 PM #93816
HereWeGo
ParticipantThe Fed has definitely decided that a little hyperinflation is a good thing. Might as well go long speculative tech and commodities at this point. Emerging markets look good as well.
The dollar is toast, though.
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October 31, 2007 at 1:25 PM #93824
HereWeGo
ParticipantThe Fed has definitely decided that a little hyperinflation is a good thing. Might as well go long speculative tech and commodities at this point. Emerging markets look good as well.
The dollar is toast, though.
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October 31, 2007 at 1:26 PM #93784
cr
Participant“Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.”
You’ll get hit everywhere else.
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October 31, 2007 at 1:26 PM #93819
cr
Participant“Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.”
You’ll get hit everywhere else.
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October 31, 2007 at 1:26 PM #93827
cr
Participant“Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.”
You’ll get hit everywhere else.
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October 31, 2007 at 12:14 PM #93773
Arraya
ParticipantI think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?
Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.
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October 31, 2007 at 12:14 PM #93782
Arraya
ParticipantI think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?
Unfortunately, gas is most likely going to go up a dollar, so any heloc savings is irrelevent. You’ll get hit some place else.
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October 31, 2007 at 12:08 PM #93764
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantThat’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….
And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!
That 62.50 per month for you is roughly equivalent to a decrease in gas prices of $1 per gallon.
(assuming $3 per gallon, one 16-gallon tank fill per week).I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?
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October 31, 2007 at 12:08 PM #93774
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantThat’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….
And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!
That 62.50 per month for you is roughly equivalent to a decrease in gas prices of $1 per gallon.
(assuming $3 per gallon, one 16-gallon tank fill per week).I think most people would love to see their own personal $1 per gallon reduction in gas prices. Wouldn’t they ?
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October 31, 2007 at 11:35 AM #93733
djrobsd
Participant.25 cut… In the bag just like sdrealtor said… done deal…
That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….
And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!
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October 31, 2007 at 11:35 AM #93744
djrobsd
Participant.25 cut… In the bag just like sdrealtor said… done deal…
That’s a whopping .75 cut total over the past couple months… For a grand total of $62.50 a month reduction in my HELOC….
And they say this is supposed to help us how??!!
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October 31, 2007 at 10:20 AM #93677
cr
ParticipantStill waiting to hear the results of the meeting, but with the 3.9% GROWTH last quarter, stocks relatively stable in the last few weeks (up today), oil at $94/barrel, the dollar at the lowest point in years, and unemployment still relatively low how can they justify the need for a cut now? If anything, doesn’t this qualify as a reason to raise rates and pull the dollar out of the toilet?
Does the FED care more about the value of the dollar or the investors on wall street?
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October 31, 2007 at 10:20 AM #93687
cr
ParticipantStill waiting to hear the results of the meeting, but with the 3.9% GROWTH last quarter, stocks relatively stable in the last few weeks (up today), oil at $94/barrel, the dollar at the lowest point in years, and unemployment still relatively low how can they justify the need for a cut now? If anything, doesn’t this qualify as a reason to raise rates and pull the dollar out of the toilet?
Does the FED care more about the value of the dollar or the investors on wall street?
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