[Duck]

In my North County area (South Carlsbad, Encinitas) the market is getting much better for sellers. Not sure why but there’s been more activity in the last month than in the prior 3 months. One item to note is that the new home construction boom in the area is now just about over. This same thing happened in 2002 after La Costa Valley was built out. Prices went nuts for 2 years and then La Costa Oaks startd construction on about 1,000 homes. Those are now just about all sold so the inventory has been greatly reduced although the MLS might not show it because very few of those new homes ever made it on there. There will not be any major new developments in the area (San Elijo Hills is a different school district) so I think prices will not fall too much further if at all.

[Duck]

It’s pending with an MLS exception for a long escrow. That agent does a ton of business so it’s not a mistake on her part. There are lots of reasons for a lengthy escrow.

[Duck]

Masayako,

I know the situation on Avenida Castana and that was not a speculator. It’s messy, but it’s not a speculator at all.

People who have unfortnate events happen in their lives don’t “deserve” to get burned.

[Duck]

I agree with the article to a point. I stopped funding my IRA and 401K (before I became self-employed) at age 35 because I started very early and based on historical returns I was going to end up with %7-8 million in an IRA account. There’s no way I need that much money. That would be like winning the lottery when you turn 65. Then what, totally change your lifestyle and try to spend the money before you kick the bucket?

I think once you reach a point where you can safely say that you’ll have a few million in your retirment account, you should probably cut back. I’m not saying to spend the money on consumables, but maybe look for other investments such as a vacation house that you can enjoy now.

[Duck]

I have to agree with you. Chicago has 10x the “culture” of San Diego. One of the top cities in the world for architecture, the Chicago Symphony is on the best in the world, the Art Institute, Millenim Park, Grant Park, the museums, Shedd Aquaraium, etc. The Chicago Mercantile exchange basically created the futures market and it’s probably the 2nd or 3rd biggest financial center in the world behind NY and maybe London.

San Deigo has nice weather and amenities. Let’s leave it at that

[Duck]

San Diego may seem expensive to you, but I moved here in 2001 from the Bay Area because of the weather and the “affordable” prices. We bought for about $600k during the stock market crash and I heard about how there would be tons of foreclosures and the houses would be worth $300k in a year. Well, the opposite happened. With the recent downturn in prices over the last 18 months, San Diego is again looking more affordable to people from other CA areas – specifically LA/Orange County and the Bay Area.

I’m orignally from the Midwest (Chicago suburbs) and I’m astonished that homes back there are so expensive, but buying a home is what everyone does in their 20’s or whenver they get married. That leads in turn to the move up buyers in their 30’s and 40’s and 50’s which fuels the market. There are new $600k homes out there 50 miles from Chicago covered in 3 fet of snow where cornfields once stood. If you had told me 10 years ago that you would have to pay that price for a home in the boonies I would have bet my life against it. There might be pockets where you’re going to see depreciation, but prices are not going to crash. You have to look around at prices elsewhere and ask yourself what the premium should be for living here.

[Duck]

If you read KB’s SEC filings you would note that their cancellation rates and in general their business in the Southeast (Florida) is what is hurting them the most. The healthiest market for KB is the West where standing inventory is well below all their other markets.

[Duck]

Why is this article “good” for anything other than for flippers? It’s basically about a listing agent who wants to sell foreclosures, but he’s having a hard time doing it. If everyone was selling and inventory was skyrocketing like so many people predict then agents would be in 7th Heaven. Face it, sellers missed the peak and they aren’t going to list so inventory will continue to shrink for decent homes. Who knows about $250k homes in Corona and who cares?

LA is about 12 months behind San Diego where inventory is now the same as a year ago despite the sales slowdown and way dow in the good areas.

[Duck]

Maybe a dead cat bounce, but I’m seeing other “upscale developments” experiencing the same things in North County Coastal.

Same with resale in closed out newer developments. Listings/Pendings were 10/1 last summer in my newer development. Currently 2/1. Many sellers have given up and will wait it out. Loan resets, defaults, etc are for subprime borrowers and subprime properties and those areas will feel it more than the move up areas where buyers brought their equity with them.

[Duck]

FYI,

Ken Fisher is a billionaire who knows a helluva lot more than anyone on this forum.

He doesn’t care if housing tanks or not, but he puts his reputation at stake twice a month verus anonymous posters who are praying for a bust so they can actually buy a house.

[Author]

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