[Duck]

It would be tough to list all the people and all the hours that went into that transaction only to have you cancel for what? Greed? Is $25,000 the price for your good name (assuming you have a good name to begin with I guess)?

As a seller I would call your bluff and hope you cancel because I know that if you are that greedy, then there’s no way you’re walking away from the $5,000 plus the cost of your appraisal and home inspection. Plus there’s probably a spouse that will be really pissed at you. I also wouldn’t want a jerk like that moving into my house to begin with unless I really hated my former neighbors.

[Duck]

Sounds like your neighbor needs to use his HELOC to pay his gas bills. I hope for you all those vehicles aren’t sitting in the street.

[Duck]

Sounds like your neighbor needs to use his HELOC to pay his gas bills. I hope for you all those vehicles aren’t sitting in the street.

[Duck]

It’s funny to see all the posters say this columnist is a shill, yet the week before he interviewed a long time permabear who offered noting but doom and gloom. You can get an “expert” to give you any opinion you want. If it’s bearish everyone here will applaud. If it’s bullish everyone will boo and shout down the author. This forum is no different than Fox News. Everyone has the same viewpoint and there is no exchange of ideas.

[Duck]

You should note that LA County, Orange County, Cook County (Chicago) and two New York counties are even higher on the list. The quote that caught my eye was

“LA has had this profile for 20 years”

Doesn’t seem to have depressed their RE prices too much. San Diego has grown into a more mature metro area and a lot of the people leaving have just been priced out just like in Manhattan, the Westside of LA, Near North areas of Chicago and you’ll see that here in Coastal areas. It started in La Jolla and is slowly heading north. Oceanside will see a huge push to the east over the next 10 years.

[Duck]

Carlsbad Village is great especially if you work from your house and don’t have kids (schools not great). You can walk everywhere and hardly need a car. I have friends that live right on Ocean Ave. and they love it (send their kids to Encinitas schools via another mailing address). It gets pretty loud on the weekends near the bars and the traffic in the summer on Carlsbad Blvd is extremely hevy but that’s because it’s a desirable tourist area.

As for renting a place there are plenyy of newer townhomes there where speculators who bought are looking for renters. Village By the Sea is one such development.

[Duck]

I forgot about your subprime RSF comment. Hard money lenders lend based on the property’s value and they don’t use 25 year old appraisers who need $400 to make their next rent check to determine the value. I’ve done 10-15 over the last 3 years with great returns and a bunch of BK’s as borrowers. And they don’t do 100% LTV or anywhere near that unless they are stupid or have extremely stupid investors. Hard Money lending is all about the value of the property and has nearly nothing to do with the borrower and has no relation to a subprime lender that is using brokers they don’t even know to fish for loans.

Are RSF prices also facing downward pressure from the subprime implosion? RSF homeowners are more likely to feel the pressure because they invested $10-20mm in a hedge fund that has exposure to via CBO’s than from toxic RSF loans.

I’ll check back with you bittermen in 12 months and we’ll see where you’re at (assuming this site exists). Misery loves company and you have plenty of that on all these bubble blogs.

Quack!

[Duck]

You seem to have your “facts” confused. There is one foreclosure on the market. The foreclosure is pending and will close next week I am told. So there’s one bank owned property out of 1050 homes that is putting all this downward pressure on the other 12 homes that are on the market. 13 total homes for sale in a development of over 1,000 homes. LOL.

[Duck]

SD Realtor, take a look

at the active/pendings (less than 2/1) in La Costa Valley and the recent solds. Those are prices moving up not down. The premier properties are moving quickly. Again, I’m not sure why but that is the fact. Over in La Costa Oaks the best bargains are the builders closing out their last homes and there are still speculators which is why I think you’ll see more listings and more downward pressure than in LCV. LCV has about twice as many homes in the development yet there are more listings in LCO.

I also just noticed the main body of this thread and the author is talking about buyers of $2,000,000 homes and how lenders like NEW ceasing funding are going to affect that market. I’ve never heard of anyone using a subprime loan to purchase a $2,000,000 home. In this area there are lots of people that make $300k and more a year and they can afford to spend $8-10k a month on their home. The ratio’s for how much of your income you should spend on your home do not apply to high end earners because 20% of someone earning $400k is more than 60% of someone earning $100k. The amount you spend on food, gas, clothing, etc is the same no matter what you earn. It’s the same thing with retirement planners saying you need to have 80% of your peak income in retirement. Well, if I earn $500k and save about half of it every year because I live frugally, I sure as hell don’t need $400k per year in retirement when I was only spending $100k per year raising a family of 5. These ratios seem biased towards people that spend all of their income.

Quack!

[Duck]

Contrarion View. Bill Miller is probably the 2nd greatest value investor of the last half century behind Warren Buffett.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/09/magazines/moneymag/funds_subprime.moneymag/index.htm

FYI, my forecast is a 5 % overall median drop, but in reality a flat market for premium neighborhoods and a 10-15% drop for the less desirable areas as that is where the bulk of the no down subprime sales are.

[Duck]

Subprime is about 10% of the market and is decidedly the low end of the market. Of that 10%, 15% might be in troule. So you’re saying that 1.5% of the overall market which is almost exclusively lower end borrowers is going to cause the overall median to drop 50% or more?

[Duck]

There have been 17 homes that have closed so far in SEH’s this year and the median is $677K. $255/sq foot.

[Duck]

Thanks for the advice, Cow. I’m going to sell and rent until 2040. I’ll be 95 then and have spent $2,300,000 on rent but I’m sure I’ll be happy buying at your bottom.

Thanks again.

[Duck]

You’re not dividing correctly. For example 269/44 = 6.11

Regardless those ratios indicate a huge buyer’s market. Those areas are going to get hit hard, and I’m sure there are quite a few subprime issues there that’s increasing the supply dramatically. Not to mention all the new construction.

[Duck]

I don’t know anythng about that community, but judging by the MLS activity and tax records it looks like there was a huge amount of speculators buying there. Looks like it’s quite a melting pot as well. A quick check of the tax records revealed about 10 different countries being represented and several short sales already including on after only 6 months. That person probably didn’t ever make a payment and had no intention of doing so. Crazy.

[Author]

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