Active Pending Ratios

[SD Realtor]

A few active/pending ratios for some zip codes:

92037 – la jolla – 153/43
92075 – solana beach – 38/7
92008 – carlsbad – 82/35
92009 – carlsbad/la costa – 161/66
92010 – carlsbad – 59/12
92011 – carlsbad – 111/36
92129 – rancho penasquitos 70/49
92128 – sabre springs 160/66
92064 – poway 165/50
92131 – scripps 72/51 (I am never gonna find a home there….arrrrgggg)
92119 – san carlos 41/30
92124 – tierra santa 24/16
92024 – encinita 170/61

[greekfire]

I don’t know enough historical info to know if these are good numbers or not. I did check get these numbers from http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/index.html that were produced by Jim the Realtor:

January 1 through February 28
Year__Total Listings__ # sold/pending by 2/28___%
2004_____5,030_____________3,070__________61%
2005_____5,392_____________2,016__________37%
2006_____7,950_____________1,442__________18%
2007_____7,588_____________1,074__________14%

Although listings are down by 5%, sales are down by 34%. This tells me that there is a high supply and low demand, which should translate into continued downward pressure on prices. Would this be a fair assessment?

[SD Realtor]

Greek it would be a fair assessment for sure.

Jim is a quality guy as I actually had some buyers I brought to an open house he had. I very much agree with Jims assessment on pretty much everything. The numbers I produced above were for detached homes only.

Again though, the data I noted was for the active/pending ratios. I believe our number of sales will continue to match the 20-30% decline on a monthly basis that we started to see in June/July of 06.

SD Realtor

[pemeliza]

SD with perhaps a few exceptions you have simply enumerated the areas with the best schools in San Diego County. I noticed you didn’t put in Carmel Valley or Del Mar and I don’t regularly hear that San Carlos and Tierra have great schools although they certainly are steller locations.

I think people expecting a meltdown in these areas may be in for a long wait if it ever comes at all. Many of the areas you mentioned are either built out or the current building sites are undesirable. For example all of the new development that I know of in Scripps has a 1.5 tax rate (Stoneridge) and what about La Costa? Try 1M+ for La Costa Greens and La Costa Ridge only to be in the San Marcos School District. (I do think Warmington is doing some
homes soon in the 700k-800k range but again SM schools).

A lot of the recent run-up in these areas can be rationalized because of the
desirable schools and lack of new land to develop on. Folks looking for bargains during this next cycle may have to look at less desirable areas and think long term. In general follow the money.

I personally wasn’t willing to take a chance on say Ocenside and so loaded up the car in 2004 and headed to North Carolina where I currently live in one of the best school districts in the country. I can assure you if Encinitas or Scripps or even La Costa take a major hit I would likely be one of the folks waiting in line to get back in.

[SD Realtor]

Hi Pemelzia –

I definitely see a correlation about schoolsneighborhoods and activity. As a parent I am absolutely putting that as a priority (within a neighborhood I hope to afford someday)…

92130 – 166/55
92014 – 81/21
92177 – 234/77
91911 – 201/64
92056 – 177/54

Also my intent was to definitely display that the more desireable regions are holding up better. I think that is going to be excasserbated as the decline continues. I think in these areas that are more established you tend to see sellers with more equity and less risky financing. The exception would be the areas that had recent development over the past several years and attracted lots of people who should not have bought in the first place. Places like 92130 and 4S I believe are going to see more fallout due to NOD/NOT activity as loan resets go down.

The active/pending ratios were to illustrate a spring rally in certain spots. This “rally” is VERY MUCH relative to the dry months of 06. Again, I believe it will be short lived, and into the summer we should see the ratios crap out. Also yes yes for sure, the better ratios will be limited to certain zips….

[eyePod]

SD, good data. Do you think the recent RELATIVE strength is also based on some significant increases in what you get for your money and people are jumping in.

[PD]

Do you have active/pending for 92118?
Thanks!

[SD Realtor]

Eyepod, I think it is a combination of a few things. Yes people are getting more value for thier dollar as many sellers are pricing better and spring is always the most active time for real estate. Very astute to capitalize RELATIVE.

92118 – 113/23 (Detached Only)

SD Realtor

[hipmatt]

I have some imortant data from the Temecula valley area. Here you go.

Active/Pendings
%of pendings to actives.. lower% = more unsold inventory

via IMRMLS.com only. @10:50PM 3-4-07

Temecula North :269/44 %=16
Temecula South :332/53 %=16
French Valley :154/19 %=12
Menifee :506/72 %=14
Murrieta West :293/41 %=14
Murrieta East :701/76 %=11

I’d say its fair to say that the undesirable areas will be hit the hardest.

On average in this area for every home that is in escrow, there are about 7.7 more homes that are not.

[Duck]

You’re not dividing correctly. For example 269/44 = 6.11

Regardless those ratios indicate a huge buyer’s market. Those areas are going to get hit hard, and I’m sure there are quite a few subprime issues there that’s increasing the supply dramatically. Not to mention all the new construction.

[hipmatt]

Actually I am dividing correctly. For example: if there are 2 actives and 1 pending then you would have 50% ratio. Or for 4 actives and 3 pending, a 75% ratio.

The number you have above, 6.11 is not a percent and means nothing.

[hipmatt]

And two more cities that have even less to offer…
Hemet: 802/83 %=10
Lake Elsinore: 710/77 %=10.8

[Anonymous]

Fantastic stats – glad I didn’t buy out there. How do you get months of inventory from that data? Prices will certainly be falling in those areas as I am certain that many of thoese people were investors, speculators, etc.

[Author]

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