[carlislematthew]

I am called extreme for suggesting it could happen here, because we are different. Hey, are we different? Perhaps their housing bubble dwarfed ours?

Not wanting to get into this old debate, but perhaps you’ll listen more closely this time. I’m game.

I, and others, have not labelled you an extremist because of your views, but because of the way you present them. You don’t simply predict a 50% drop, you state it as fact and call others delusional if they don’t agree with you.

You seem to have toned it down quite a bit over the past few weeks, but occasionally the old-style diplomacy creeps out. Dogs, tricks, etc…

[carlislematthew]

Insure, Ensure, Assure.

For some reason, hardly anyone knows what “ensure” means. Instead, they use “insure”. It’s everywhere. All over marketing literature after multiple “professionals” have proof-read it. Uggh.

Insure – to protect against loss with a policy of some kind. e.g. An insurance policy! I want to insure my car.

Ensure – to make certain. e.g. “To ensure good results, chill the milk before adding”. See how weird “insure” is here? Are you going to purchase a policy that protects againsts bad results if you add warm milk?

Assure – I dunno. Too late to think… To comfort or state confidence, I suppose.. e.g. “I assure you that my homework will be done on time”.

[carlislematthew]

Did you say something about it getting worse even when it wasn’t getting worse, technically? Is that like the process where you keep getting drunker after you’ve stopped drinking? Darkest before the dawn? And so forth?

Absolutely! The excess inventory and lack of affordability is similar to the last two gin and tonics in my stomach. I’m already drunk, but have yet to feel the effects of the freshly imbibed toxins.

[carlislematthew]

I thought the median was a useless statistic? It seems that people on this forum like to knock the median when it’s going up (myself included) but then take it at face value when it’s going down. I’m not singling anyone out here, just trying to illustrate a point.

Instead, does anyone have access to median price/sq ft data? I believe this was one of the statistics that was used when the median was going up, in order to debunk it. i.e. balance of houses sold was trending towards larger houses, so the price was going up, but price/sq ft was actually declining.

I’m not arguing that prices are going down – it’s pretty apparent that they are. I do, however, think that we need to be careful regarding picking and choosing statistics that best fit in with our beliefs.

I’ve mentioned this a few times before, but it’s interesting to note that the YOY figure will continue to decline until November 2006 EVEN IF PRICES LEVEL OFF TODAY. Since the YOY figure is the one that people pay attention to (in the media anyway), it’s going to *seem* to get worse, even if it actually doesn’t. This, ironically, might feed the cycle to make it worse, even if it wasn’t going to get worse. (I think my head is about to explode)

[carlislematthew]

My best friend is a H1-B visa nurse from a thirld world country. As soon as she got her green card, she petitioned her parents to come to the US. Then her parents petitioned her 5 siblings. The parents and siblings are not professionals. The parents and a few sibs are now on the dole. America is so great!

Wow, this must have taken about 20 years at the speed the INS (USCIS) lets this happen. It can take 5-10 years to get siblings to the US, and that’s if you’re a citizen already. Parents get to come quicker, but they’re considered “immediate relatives”.

In addition, the parents or siblings will not quality for “means tested benefits” until they have 40 quarters of work under their belt. The petitioner of their green cards signed a statement promising to support them them when they arrived and they are legally liable for all benefits paid, assuming they somehow cheat the system and manage to get the benefits in the first place.

The immigration system has all kinds of protections and barriers to prevent this kind of thing happening. It does a decent job, which is not to say that it couldn’t be improved.

Finally, the H1B visa is not slave labor. The salaries are reported to the government who maintain lists of salaries for given positions. You have to come within the range to get the visa in the first place.

[carlislematthew]

Foreigners do have to be paid prevailing wage, but there are all sorts of loopholes.

What loopholes? Serious question…

[carlislematthew]

It is true that the H1-B and similar visa programs allow the best to come to the US. Unfortunately the quality of engineers and scientists that use most of them is not great when compared to what US universities produce. Picture them as “generic” engineers vs. brand name engineers (US graduates).

This has got to be the least informed opinion I have ever seen. I work at a wireless tech company in San Diego where >50% are from India or Asia. I myself am originally from England. The foreign engineers, especially from India IMO, are VERY well educated and intelligent. In the US, we really do get the best ones from India, and they’re not paid less. Companies hire H1-B because they HAVE TO (shortage of workers) and not because it’s easy or cheap to do so.

[carlislematthew]

Disclaimer: I am not a CPA.

However, I *have* heard that you don’t want to funnel ALL your money into these kinds of after-tax investments. If you do, you’ll certainly be guaranteeing that your income tax rate is lower at retirement as you’ll have no (or very little) taxable income!

I have seen suggested that one could invest in both regular IRA *and* Roth IRA. Then, you use the regular IRA up until the point where the taxes get a little high. Then fund the rest of your spending from accounts where you have already paid the tax.

As usual regarding investment strategies, I don’t think it makes sense to go 100% one way or the other.

[carlislematthew]

hopefully iraq is a short term issue.

Yes, I believe it’s in its last throes… Mission accomplished.

🙂

[carlislematthew]

I’m sad to hear that the guy died, but I’m not more sad for him than I am for the other few thousand (or more?) other people that died on the same day as he did. Some of them had families too.

[carlislematthew]

Unfortunately, his index is not quite reliable, for it generates sell/buy signals at wrong times, and did not generate a buy signal for the current bubble until January 2003.

Is this a national “buy signal” or is this for the San Diego market specifically? I ask because I bought a property in Seattle in Sep of 2003 and sold in Sep of 2005. Two years, and price of house went up about 30%. In-laws bought in Dec of 2003 and sold early this year. Their house went up about 40%, although they did spend about 5-10K in upgrades (windows, etc).

[carlislematthew]

Has Iran ever been a good little country and behaved itself?

When they were the “good guys” they did. Or at least we didn’t care what they were doing…

[carlislematthew]

If rates go up a LOT, then this will just drive the price down and the overall payment may therefore stay relatively level.

Personally, I think the best strategy is to save AS MUCH MONEY AS YOU CAN and buy when the rates are high. This is also hopefully at a time when nobody else is buying (due to rates, or whatever) and so you’ll find a nice place without some stupid bidding war.

Then, when rates come down, refinance!

You can’t do it the other way – once you’ve got the low rate, there’s nowhere to go…

[carlislematthew]

We treat it almost casually: “40k below an offer they turned down a few months ago.”

I would say that the importance of this “loss” for the particular seller is related to how much they came out with, when all things are taken into account. If these particular owners bought the house for 400K a few years back and then sold for 760 and not 800K, then they didn’t “lose” money, then simply didn’t make as much as they could have.

In that situation, they have no less actual money than at any point in time. They *could* have made more, but that’s not the same as making a loss.

If, however, they bought the house for 700K last year, then they could very well have lost money on it! Buying a stock for $10, neglecting to sell at $20, then finally selling at $15 is a $5 per share *gain*.

I still agree that the numbers are big and are not to be taken lightly..

[carlislematthew]

So you’re looking to plan a spontaneous moment. Riiight. 🙂

My ideas:

-Call in sick at work and drive to Vegas!
-Go to Big Bear, rent mountain bikes, take the ski lift up to the top and ride down really fast! (planning on doing that this weekend!)

[Author]

Posts