[carlislematthew]

It’s interesting that starts went up at the same time as permits went down. Perhaps the builders are starting to worry more so they are rushing to complete a bunch of projects in the hopper before prices come down and limit their profits. After all, I have to assume they already own the land.

This also could all just be a little bit of volatility in the mix, but 15.8% in the west is quite a number! Could just be weather, as mentioned in the article. Or perhaps the housing market, nationally, is not as weak as some propose.

Anyone know where we can get these figures, but specific to San Diego?

[carlislematthew]

Confirmation Bias is interesting. Is that like when you took your high maintenance/priced German engineered vehicle to your mechanic and he told you with out a doubt that it was a good buy because all he saw was $$$?

An analogy I think is a little closer is this: You want to buy a BMW, and you want it bad. You read dozens of reviews of the BMW, some of which say it’s a great car and some say it’s a bad car. However, you already believe that it’s a great car even before you start reading the reviews! Confirmation bias says that you are more likely to believe the more positive reviews than the negative reviews. In general, we like to read/hear things that confirm our pre-existing beliefs.

I’ve yet to meet someone that doesn’t fall subject to this effect, including me. However, if you can understand your own thought process, then I think you can attempt to become more objective.

Here’s another link that has a ton of followup links to related effects.

http://skepdic.com/confirmbias.html

And yes, this relates to real estate before I get flamed. 🙂 Why? Because house prices MUST DROP!! 🙂

[carlislematthew]

We should have a popular vote.

I totallty agree. I often wonder what Gore would have done after 9/11.

[carlislematthew]

Well, there seems to be at least *one* thing we can agree on. 🙂

[carlislematthew]

How do you go about exchanging emails without posting them?

You could perhaps set up a temporary Hotmail account, post the email address, and use that account to trade real email addresses…

[carlislematthew]

To imply that I have an issue with your approach because you’re a smart woman is insulting.

It’s not because you’re a woman, or because you’re smart. I formed my opinions of your approach long before I knew you were a woman. Others may have an issue – that’s not for me to say. The spats you get into are NOT a consequence of your views, they are a consequence of how you present those views. It is possible for a gun loving, god fearing, gay hater to have a civil debate with a liberal gay woman that likes to get pregnant and have abortions on the weekend, for fun. Sure, it’s harder to keep the debate civil and on track, but it is possible and we should strive to do that.

Why don’t you start some of your own threads? I am sure we will love to read what you have to say.

Sigh. I’m sure you will say that this statement was sincere and in good faith, but you know as well as I do that it was meant to say “you have nothing to say”. It was a snide remark.

I have a job and so cannot post as often as you can. I work from home and have some flexibility in my web surfing, and so will occasionally pop in to see what’s going on.

[carlislematthew]

It’s not your confidence that “bugs” me and it’s amazing to me that you would think this. Confidence can sometimes border on arrogance and you remind me of those people that think they can stand up, say whatever the hell they like, offend whoever they like and then say, “hey, if you don’t like what I say, then it’s *your* problem and not mine”. Well, if a lot of people are finding your attitude annoying, then perhaps it isn’t *my* problem after all?

I happen to be in the same camp as you in many areas, from general home price decline to political and military action.

Questions: Do you find it odd that you seem to have many spats with other people? Do you see other people having the same number of issues with each other? Did you ever consider that your approach to issues and debate might turn people off wanting to debate with you in the first place?

It’s OK to have whatever views and opinions you want, but I think this forum as a whole would welcome a different approach.

All in favor… etc.

[carlislematthew]

I think that once you realize that you can’t pay the mortgage anymore, and you miss the first payment, then why bother making any more payments? You have several months before you’re in REAL trouble, so why not save as much cash as possible and makes plans for the exit?

I suspect that’s what I would do in that situation. If you’re not paying the mortgage or the HELOC, you can save quite a bit of cash, and the payment issues probably haven’t made it onto your credit report yet, so renting a place shouldn’t be too hard.

I’ve known a couple of people that have gone bankrupt, and these people were never short of cash. Hardly a representative sample of course, but that’s been my experience. They had crushing amounts of credit card debt and phone calls from people demanding money, but they were always wearing nice clothes, eating out at the best sushi places. OK, so I’m thinking of one particular ex-girlfriend here. 😉

[carlislematthew]

I just know it deep inside, and everyday I read more and more articles which validate my positions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Don’t mean to be rude, but I believe that this article may be relevant. It’s easy to read confirming articles and say “See! I’m right!” and then read non-confirming articles and say “Flawed! Crap!”.

I myself find myself doing the same thing – it’s human nature. I have to constantly remind myself of my natural tendancy to want to believe things that confirm my pre-existing beliefs. That keeps me a little more objective, but if anyone tells you they are not subject to confirmation bias, they just don’t understand themselves enough.

[carlislematthew]

There are quite a few 0% out there right now, as well as special offers that pay your gas and other silly things like that. I believe that car sales are down (housing ATM drying up) and so the manufacturers are getting desperate – I’m looking forward to mass dumping of the ’06 models from now through to the end of the year.

A lot of the 0% financing offers aren’t that great, as all you’re doing is adding on the hidden interest over the life of the loan. You can see this in their pricing, as they’ll usually give you a few thousand bucks off if you don’t go for the “no interest” version.

[carlislematthew]

“It has always been those on the extreme who have been the seers and visionaries”.

Always?

There has never been a single visionary that had moderate thinking more towards the middle?

PS, This is the kind of rhetoric that I was referring to. Words like “always”, “will”, “never”, “everything”. You surely must see that your opinions are often labelled as fact in your posts, and that you can often deal with things in a very black and white fashion.

[carlislematthew]

When I retire, I’m going to be one of those old guys that works for peanuts (or nothing at all) in the national/state park system. I’ll bring out the maps to the eager young campers and with trembling hands show them where to go to camp, hike and have fun.

[carlislematthew]

My problem with you has been stated on this blog before. You are an extremist.

Sdrealtor, I agree with your posts, and will add myself to the list of lurkers silently agreeing with your reasonable posts. You’ve certainly been guilty of biting here and there, but who hasn’t? We’re only human after all…

I personally am in the same camp as many on this forum. I believe that prices will (and are) correcting to some extent. To what extent, I don’t know. I’m following this closely from the sidelines so that I can buy when I feel the right time has come, even though I know this could take years.

Powayseller’s comments are so definite, so confident, and quite frankly so *frequent*, that it sometimes seems a little excessive. Comments like “SD real estate will go down 50%”. “Will” they? I find the posts based on good research and often tempered with “can’t be sure” and comments like that. But they start so strong. “Will” and “will not”, as opposed to “may” and “perhaps not”. It’s hard to take that kind of extremism so seriously and the strong desire to make EVERYONE believe those statements reminds me distantly of religous fanaticism. After all, it’s much easier to believe something if everyone else around you believes it too.

I also want to believe that the real estate market in SD will go down significantly. I couldn’t imagine anything better than a 50% decrease in real estate, but at the same time I’m not sure I’ll still a job when that occurs, and I’m wondering who will lend me money at what interest rate! Beware of what you wish for…

On the topic of real estate agents. It’s certainly the case that if you don’t have a real estate agent for a friend, then you probably don’t have many friends! There are good ones and there are bad ones. I would guess (because I don’t know for sure, so I don’t say “I KNOW”) that there are a lot of RE agents that started in recent years, are chasing a quick buck, and will probably go back to their old job in the coming years. But there are also many good agents out there. I had the pleasure of working with one in my old town of Seattle.

All this crap I’ve seen about “You MUST have a website to be an agent” and “80% of whatevers are found on the internet”. So what? Yes, people research a lot on the internet. If 80% research on the Internet then 20% don’t! (yes, I can say that for a fact!) So why should 100% of agents have pretty little websites? That would neglect 20% of buyers, who prefer references, phone calls, or whatever they did in the “dark ages” of real estate. 20% of buyers is a substantial market. Besides, putting your house in the MLS is just one step to market a home. There are a ton of others, which I don’t want to comment definitively on because I’m not a real estate professional and will defer to those that are experienced in this area (what a concept).

[carlislematthew]

What insurance does the second lender have? None.

Commonly, an increased interest rate that reflects that additional risk of the loan. The insurance is built in. Whether enough “insurance” is built in or not is another question, but it *does* exist…

[carlislematthew]

How many times in the last few decades have we had an inverted yield curve that did NOT result in a recession? Serious question… I believe I heard that it has happened quite a few times.

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