[carlislematthew]

One of the points I was trying to make is that those statements are fallacies not backed up by income statistics or availability of housing inventory. Although I will agree with you that Irvine is a more desirable place to live (otherwise I would move to Minnetonka), demand is measured in dollars, and Minnetonka has the same amount of dollars available to purchase housing as Irvine does. There is not so many fewer homes available in Irvine than Minnetonka to justify a median home price that is more than double.

IMO, it’s perceived demand that is sometimes more important that actual demand. It’s artificial. It’s easier to say “Orange County will always be in high demand” compared with “Minnetonka will always be in high demand”. The perceived level of always-high demand creates an impression (illusion!) that “prices will never go down”. When you have THAT in your mind, you decrease the perception of risk, and you inflate the prices.

Perversely, the widespread assumption that prices never go down, is one the reasons that prices went up so far, and then went down!!

[carlislematthew]

I’m a very happily married heterosexual male, and will leave the Roubini lovefest comments to ps and Perry.

LOL!!!

[carlislematthew]

Regarding PS’s website I defer to the zen riddle: If a tree falls in the woods and there’s no one there to hear it, does it make a sound?

Of *course* it makes a sound. What a silly question… Only those that don’t understand sound, air pressure waves, and the human ear would think otherwise. You should be ashamed of the quality of your riddle. Shame on you!!!

Anyway, would it be rude to post a picture of a rolling tumbleweed on her blog/forums?

[carlislematthew]

JG,

On a scale of 1-10, please rank the following (1 = completely disagree, 10 = completely agree)

-Roubini is a great economist.
-Roubini’s predictions are always accurate, and even when wrong, he is right.
-Roubini is sexy, in that “I’m a miserable economist and don’t know how to laugh” kinda way
-I love Roubini

Thanks. 🙂

Matthew

[carlislematthew]

Doesn’t that convert to about .65cents a cup for gas?

You certainly can’t buy water, coffee, etc for that price.

You can if you buy it by the barrel!

I think oil might be a *little* more expensive if it were distributed and sold in small plastic bottles.

[carlislematthew]

It’s simple economics. The number of bubble blogs has gone way past fundamentals and MUST REVERT TO THE MEAN! There WILL be a 50% drop in the number of bubble sites by Fall 2007. If you disagree with me, you’re delusional, stupid or both.

[carlislematthew]

These people that fall for these scams and sign anything in front of them fall into a number of categories:

1) Stupid, through no fault of their own, and were actually lied to and scammed out of their money/house/whatever. In this case, the law should protect them, or laws should be made to protect them.

2) Fools, through willful ignorance. Average people who wanted to get rick quick, saw the housing train and got on board. They didn’t care about the loan, the rate. That stuff doesn’t matter as you “have to live somewhere”, and you’ll “make tons of money” and, hell, you “save money with the tax deduction”. They saw the big fancy house, they wanted it, they bought it, they signed up.

We’re seeing far too many articles from the (1) category when it is my belief that these people are in the minority and that the fools in the (2) category are the vast majority that will lose their homes.

Someone please tell me why average Joes spend days or weeks researching their next car, but can’t figure out interest rates and money? It takes some effort, but it can be done. It’s only the BIGGEST FINANCIAL DECISION YOU’LL EVER MAKE IN YOUR LIFE, after all. I mean, why on earth would you bother to learn about what you’re signing?

[carlislematthew]

I think if you had posted you won the lottery, you would get comments about how you were really only getting half the amount due to tax, so it was not so great.

We are in a lottery bubble and it’s not sustainable. Pretty soon there even *be* any lotteries!

But that doesn’t matter anyway as we’re about to enter a depression, have 105% unemployment, interest rates will shoot up, we’ll have mass inflation, stagflation, and deflation all the same time. Then the sun will die.

So go ahead, buy a house right now, fool.

[carlislematthew]

I also “predict” that the S&P will not decline by 40% before August, as spelled out in the revised forecast.

Of course, if I am wrong it is because the market is delusional.

Absolutely. If the market DOES decline by a large amount then the predictor is RIGHT. However, if it doesn’t decline by a large amount then everyone else is delusional and the predictor is still RIGHT. Whatever happens, the predictor remains confident, correct, and the only sane person in the room. All others are morons, or lucky fools.

[carlislematthew]

I’m in IT in the software engineering side, now in management. I don’t have any experience in the systems administration/networking side, so I won’t comment on that. My experience is that of a developer with about 10 years of experience, and I have managed, led and hired teams for about 5 of that.

During good times (like now), an intelligent, articulate developer can very easily get a job, regardless of 9 month certificate or 4 year degree. Experience, appropriate skills, and the ability to hit the ground running are more important. I’m hiring positions right now. Send me your resume! 🙂

However, during the bad times, you will NEED that degree and solid experience (not 4 months here, 3 months there). Most companies that *are* hiring will tighten their requirements and become dramatically more fussy. I’ve been there and that’s what happens. We would literally get 100 resumes a DAY for a position, back in 2003(ish). In order to screen that many resumes you have to be brutal. Not in the area? Stay away. No degree? Forget it. Need a Visa? Tough luck.

80% of the resumes I received back in 2003 when we were hiring were from people that got into software engineering in the last couple of years and only had a certificate. They were seen as chasing the money, not “real” developers, and sub-standard. Sounds harsh, but that’s how it was, and this is how it will be again when the next recession comes.

My advice? If you REALLY want to get into IT, wait. Save some money with your current job and get rid of that car payment. Wait until the recession, and then go back to school. Just as people are starting to hire again, you’ll be a fresh face (with intern experience hopefully) and you’ll get a job. Oh, and to stay in IT you HAVE to like it. Those that don’t like programming, will HATE it. It’s a love or hate thing.

Finally, there are more people employed today in IT than there were back at the height of the last bubble back in 1999/2000. Look at the statistics on the BLS if you don’t believe me. There was a significant dip, however, during the recent bad times. IMO, the future for IT is relatively bright but you need to figure out how to protect yourself.

[carlislematthew]

I think some here forget the usefulness of HELOCs. If you pay all cash for your house, but are worred about the lack of liquidity (need my cash, NOW!) then just get a HUGE line of credit on your house. This is your emergency fund. You won’t pay interest because you WILL NOT put a balance on it.

Then, if you ever need the cash or lose a job, then the house equity is there to save you, in cash, today.

Don’t wait until you lose your job before you go for the HELOC – you might not qualify. Oh, and don’t get the HELOC if you’re not certain you’ll leave it alone.

[carlislematthew]

Sorry to make light of your situation, but I couldn’t resist! You’ve got it made, dude! Congratulations!!!

Dilemma:
1. a situation requiring a choice between equally undesirable alternatives.
2. any difficult or perplexing situation or problem.
3. attempting to figure out what to do with $2,000,000 in cash and minimal, of any, debt.

😉

[carlislematthew]

The reason that a lot of people IMO think the Democrats are elitist is because that is what they see PC.

I couldn’t agree more. In the 2004 debates, Kerry was the obvious winner in terms of intellect. However, his smug annoying face just said to me, “I’m smarter than you and you know it”. I’m a democrat (just!) but Kerry is just too much for me. I wish he would go away and stop pretending like he matters still.

I’m not saying that I want someone less intelligent (like, you know you who) but I *am* saying that I want someone intelligent, but humble. Confident, but skeptical and willing to listen. I want a leader, but not a dictator.

It’s a hard role to fill, but I believe I have not seen ANYONE on either side that I could vote for, yet.

[carlislematthew]

Even near-pacifists like Perry are ready to karate chop at a moment’s notice.

JG, that was hilarious! LOL!

[carlislematthew]

but the doom and gloom projected by most on this blog may be over-stated. Most, if not all, respected housing economists don’t see it happening.

Most, if not all, respected housing economists predicted a soft-landing with “back to normal” appreciation. Then most of them predicted that prices would “level off”. Now most of them are predicted that it will be “over soon” and we’ll “back to low digit appreciation soon”.

I agree with you that the market is not going to be as doom and gloom as some on this forum predict, but let’s be careful what and whom we choose to believe.

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