[carlislematthew]

I think most people would choose getting info over the internet – no hassle, it is free, no sales pitch, you get updates at midnight and it doesn’t pester you with call-backs.

While there may be a certain element of this kind of behavior in real-estate, I don’t think it’s fair to say that all realtors are like this. My last realtor I used up in Seattle was excellent. If I told him I didn’t want to continue down a particular avenue, he wouldn’t ever mention it again. He was a true professional.

Like any profession that has experienced a large amount of growth, and where there was lots of money to be had, there was certainly a decent sized group of the sleazy type that entered into the field. I think this group will be the first to leave too…

[carlislematthew]

Homes are all unique and have many attributes that could never be accounted for by a algorithim.

You probably *could* do this with an algorithm, but it would literally take hundreds or thousands of attributes about the house. You’d have to record so much information about the quality of the view, the type of counter top used, the amount of hardware floors and the type and quality of the wood.

Who would record all the information? Well, the sellers of course, or a large independant body sponsered by the government, so the information is bound to be wrong. It will be wrong because it’s subjective. One person’s 8/10 view is another’s 1/10 view. You can’t objectively record subjective information, especially where the collectors of the information are widely dispersed and biased.

I work in the software industry and have a lot of experience in a similar field, but relating to storing information and attributes for music, which again is mostly subjective. A music file has many many less attributes than a house, and it’s still an almost impossible task to try and categorize the music to a level where you can use that information for something useful.

[carlislematthew]

I don’t know how they do their valuations, but I DO know that the amount of data they have is very small compared to the data that is available overall. Until the MLS has attributes and history for “granite counter tops”, “cheaply landscaped yard”, “neighbor with crappy fence and mean dog”, and other things that are either apparent in the blurb, the pictures, or a viewing, I can’t see how it can EVER be accurate for a given house.

On the other hand, it *could* be accurate for a neighborhood in general and is perhaps a better tool for evaluating a given ZIP code so you can get an idea of where you might like to live, what the houses look like in general, and how much that area costs compared to other areas.

[carlislematthew]

I searched on Google News for “San Diego Biotech” and came across this article:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20060628-9999-1b28venture.html

It seems that there is still a flood of money coming in to San Diego for biotech. Of course, that may slow down or stop at some point in the future. However, I don’t think healthcare in general is a dying business. I believe this is why many towns (including my old town, Seattle) are desperate to set themselves up as a bio-tech area. San Diego has already done it, and *seems* to be doing well, in general.

The FDA is always going to “get in the way” and not approve some life-saving (but stroke inducing) pill, but I think it’s more important to look at the longer-term view.

Exactly what that is, I’m not qualified to say. Anyone reading this forum work in biotech? Care to comment on the employment situation right now and how it compares to 12 months ago?

[carlislematthew]

Link doesn’t work for me. Are you sure it’s right?

I like the idea BTW – I’m a bit of a computer type myself and have set up a few websites here and there. I’m thinking this might be an interesting one to monitor!

[carlislematthew]

And are the job openings mentioned above in S/W actual openings, or just some classifieds placed so they can keep looking for some future opening? What is the actual change in software engineer positions over the last few months? Do you think they are having a hard time finding people to move here, as we discussed with Qualcomm?

Most of them are actual openings. The hot market right now is for developers using newer Microsoft technologies, and also wireless and video stuff.

I’m looking for a higher level position – i.e. management/techical architecture. This is much harder to get into in this town right now, partly because there are just less of these positions, and partly because when S/W booms and gets hot, developers are the first in the door, and *then* they’ll hire management later when it gets insane and they’re missing all their deadlines. (BTW – looks like I’ll have two offers within the next week – fingers crossed!)

I’m not sure of the actual increase in number of positions. I don’t track it, just mentally note the increase and desire of employers. I had one company try and convince me to get back into programming for a salary of $120,000! They were desperate to find someone.

Yes, I do think they’re finding it hard to get people to move here, but not so much in the higher paying jobs. If I was on anything near a median salary I would NEVER have moved to San Diego. But don’t underestimate how attractive San Diego (or SoCal in general) is in terms of climate. I know several people in Seattle that are busy plotting how to get to SoCal. A household salary of $200K can go a long way, even in silly-expensive San Diego. Instead of a wonderful 3000sq ft house by a lake, we’ll buy a very nice 2000 sq ft house in Encinitas. It may be annoying in terms of value for money, but it’s certainly livable.

[carlislematthew]

Road rage will intensify; SUV and car torchings will gain attention; office politics will become meaner and nastier; grifters and con men will come out of the woodworks – not to mention property thefts and vandalisms.

News at 11: Dog bites man.

Does anyone have any statistics about the decline in high paying jobs in San Diego? It’s easy to point at a few companies that are laying people off and extrapolate that to the rest of the town.

My own experience is a little different. Since watching the job market for software people (like myself) in San Diego since the beginning of the year, I’m amazed at how tight the market has become. My standard “search agent” on Dice.com is pulling up 693 positions that match the search I’m doing. Companies I talk to are hiring like mad, and recruiters complain about not being able to find the right people.

Sure, this could change at some point. These things are cyclical. But to say that the high paying jobs are slowly dying away, well, that doesn’t doesn’t fit with my experience.

Hence, the request for real numbers. Neither of our experiences are entirely representative of what is happening out there.

[carlislematthew]

Considering how much her payment went up, I’m guessing she was on a teaser rate on her ARM (maybe 1-3%). Perhaps her ARM reset to 5 or 6%? If so, what rate is she going to get when she refinances? Probably the same…

[carlislematthew]

Ahh, but when/if it *does* double, this will be GREAT news because we’ll be entering a buyers market and there will be many deals out there.

So, whatever you do, keep buying houses!!! 😉

[carlislematthew]

Bugs, you make a very good point regarding the financing. That is certainly something to consider. It might be best to build while the market is on the way down, so that banks don’t shut the door in my face when I say I want to borrow money!!

Regarding the employment situation in Julian. My understanding is that something like 1/3 of all housing in Julian is second-home/vacation housing. Given that, would the risk still be higher?

Also, what is your general feeling about baby-boomers and their demand for second houses? I’m thinking about building a cabin, enjoying it for 5-10 years, and then selling it to a boomer that wants to move out of San Diego to that lovely little place with the apple pies. Your thoughts?

[carlislematthew]

Yes, I have certainly considered it. The only concern I have with Julian (and towns like it) is that they’re “not making any more land”. Yes, I know that’s kind’ve a bullshit expression, but the development in and around Julian is *really* limited.

Many plots of land for sale don’t have water available so you have to make a well, and who knows how far down you’ll have to go. If water *is* available but you don’t have a meter, it’ll cost $5K to install the meter, and they may in the future have a moratorium on new meters due to the fact that it’s a little dry out there and the infrastructure is not like it is down here in San Diego.

In addition, I have electricity to the property, which a lot of the plots out there don’t have. Plus, we have a view!

The purchase was semi-investment (for the long-term) and semi emotion. Given the total amount of money involved ($80K), the risk of decline was worth it considering the risk of not finding a plot with the same amenities and view.

http://www.julian-realestate.com/html/land_1.html

There’s not a whole lot of land that is zoned for residential construction, that doesn’t have something on it. The fire of 2003 has left quite a few plots available and so we thought we’d get our future cabin-site right now. Buying a cabin in future will be easy. Buying buildable land might not be.

[carlislematthew]

Funnily enough, I just called those very same people and am getting the information mailed to me. 🙂

Thanks again for your help!

[carlislematthew]

A planning consultant sounds ideal. I’ve been avoiding the architect route as I’m planning on using a standard plan (with a couple of small mods) from a website. This may or may not be a good idea. 🙂

I’m unsure as to the answer regarding Julian. I know I’m not in their “Historic District” which would require additional architectural permits. Beyond that, I don’t know if I’m in the city of Julian, or even if Julian is technically a city or not! I believe it might just be unincorporated San Diego county. I suspect you will know better than I do.

The offer of advice is greatly appreciated!

[carlislematthew]

The septic sytem is designed and approved by the county, but no permit has been applied for or approved. There is electricy and water already at the property.

I know I have quite a bit to do. I was hoping that the contractor would help out quite a bit with all this, but obviously I’ll need to be involved to a fair extent. How much would someone normally take care of prior to involving the contractor?

Thanks for the advice – I appreciate it.

[carlislematthew]

Interesting – thanks Josh. I suppose I’ll just have to follow the industry and take it as it comes.

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