- This topic has 13 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 3 months ago by Bugs.
-
AuthorPosts
-
June 20, 2006 at 9:45 AM #6755June 20, 2006 at 11:28 AM #27219barnaby33Participant
Its my understanding that building doesn’t really slow down for a year or so until after the shit hits the fan. People finishing re-models or finishing up units they are already committed to. You might start the permitting process in 07, but if you can wait on construction it would probably behoove you to do so until you see quality contractors working at HD again(ie 1995). Then its time to build.
Josh
June 20, 2006 at 11:54 AM #27223carlislematthewParticipantInteresting – thanks Josh. I suppose I’ll just have to follow the industry and take it as it comes.
June 20, 2006 at 11:57 AM #27224CarlsbadlivingParticipantIs the land already entitled? What kind of permits will you need? Depending on the complexity of the planning issues I’d recommend starting the planning process right now. Maybe the site’s ready to go, but if not there’s many issues that could potentially take years to work through with the City (Biology, soils, etc.) Besides, once you’ve got your entitlements, you typically have 2 years to start building, and even then you could get extensions. That way you could just sit back and wait to time the market to build.
June 20, 2006 at 12:03 PM #27226carlislematthewParticipantThe septic sytem is designed and approved by the county, but no permit has been applied for or approved. There is electricy and water already at the property.
I know I have quite a bit to do. I was hoping that the contractor would help out quite a bit with all this, but obviously I’ll need to be involved to a fair extent. How much would someone normally take care of prior to involving the contractor?
Thanks for the advice – I appreciate it.
June 20, 2006 at 12:10 PM #27227CarlsbadlivingParticipantThe contractor is usually the last to show up. They might pull building permits for you. You might be best to hire an architect/planner or a planning consultant to help with the site permits from the County. Are you actually in the County and not in Julian? I work for a planning consultant in coastal north county. We wouldn’t take on a project that small but I’m more than happy to offer up advice.
June 20, 2006 at 12:20 PM #27228carlislematthewParticipantA planning consultant sounds ideal. I’ve been avoiding the architect route as I’m planning on using a standard plan (with a couple of small mods) from a website. This may or may not be a good idea. π
I’m unsure as to the answer regarding Julian. I know I’m not in their “Historic District” which would require additional architectural permits. Beyond that, I don’t know if I’m in the city of Julian, or even if Julian is technically a city or not! I believe it might just be unincorporated San Diego county. I suspect you will know better than I do.
The offer of advice is greatly appreciated!
June 20, 2006 at 1:25 PM #27230CarlsbadlivingParticipantI would recommend taking a trip to the County Planning Dept. (5201 Ruffin Rd). Just take the APN and the counter staff will be able to tell you everything you need to know about the property. That’s the best place to start.
June 20, 2006 at 1:51 PM #27232carlislematthewParticipantFunnily enough, I just called those very same people and am getting the information mailed to me. π
Thanks again for your help!
June 20, 2006 at 2:19 PM #27238BugsParticipantActually I think you’re pretty close, what with the utilities and septic already worked out. Julian is an unincorporated community but I think they have their own local design review. If you’re using stock plans and its something that would fit in reasonably well with the neighborhood they probably won’t hassle you.
As for timing the costs, 2007 may not be a bad time to start but I’ll bet 2008 would be better. There’ll probably be a lot of local labor actively competing for your contract by then, which will be good for you and for them.
The only possible downside to waiting is that interest rates and underwriting for the construction loan and the subsequent long term financing will probably get tougher as time goes by. If local pricing is in decline it could also affect the amount you could borrow for construction. Be aware that Julian’s location far from employment puts it at higher risk for pricing declines, especially in light of the costs of gasoline.
June 20, 2006 at 3:10 PM #27244powaysellerParticipantJulian is a gem of a town. Have you considered selling, and buying a lot in a few years at 30-50% off? Not my business, but just wondering, since this is a housing forum.
June 20, 2006 at 3:23 PM #27245carlislematthewParticipantYes, I have certainly considered it. The only concern I have with Julian (and towns like it) is that they’re “not making any more land”. Yes, I know that’s kind’ve a bullshit expression, but the development in and around Julian is *really* limited.
Many plots of land for sale don’t have water available so you have to make a well, and who knows how far down you’ll have to go. If water *is* available but you don’t have a meter, it’ll cost $5K to install the meter, and they may in the future have a moratorium on new meters due to the fact that it’s a little dry out there and the infrastructure is not like it is down here in San Diego.
In addition, I have electricity to the property, which a lot of the plots out there don’t have. Plus, we have a view!
The purchase was semi-investment (for the long-term) and semi emotion. Given the total amount of money involved ($80K), the risk of decline was worth it considering the risk of not finding a plot with the same amenities and view.
http://www.julian-realestate.com/html/land_1.html
There’s not a whole lot of land that is zoned for residential construction, that doesn’t have something on it. The fire of 2003 has left quite a few plots available and so we thought we’d get our future cabin-site right now. Buying a cabin in future will be easy. Buying buildable land might not be.
June 20, 2006 at 3:27 PM #27246carlislematthewParticipantBugs, you make a very good point regarding the financing. That is certainly something to consider. It might be best to build while the market is on the way down, so that banks don’t shut the door in my face when I say I want to borrow money!!
Regarding the employment situation in Julian. My understanding is that something like 1/3 of all housing in Julian is second-home/vacation housing. Given that, would the risk still be higher?
Also, what is your general feeling about baby-boomers and their demand for second houses? I’m thinking about building a cabin, enjoying it for 5-10 years, and then selling it to a boomer that wants to move out of San Diego to that lovely little place with the apple pies. Your thoughts?
June 20, 2006 at 6:16 PM #27249BugsParticipantLots of the homes and cabins out there are 2nd homes and vacation homes, although the trend seems to be for purchases of primary residences.
I’d agree with the boomer/2nd houses thing, except I think most boomers have their hands full with their kids, their parents and their incredible shrinking 401k right now. I think the wealth transfer from the greatest generation to the boomers may enable some luxury purchases like vacation homes, but only if the boomers haven’t already spent their inheritance on their H2.
Now retirement homes may be another matter. The boomers are retiring now and they won’t need the same proximity to employment. Frankly, I’m seeing more boomers leaving the region altogether rather than go halfway to Julian. My parents left the O.C. and retired to the Black Hills of S. Dakota – they never looked back.
I think Julian, and to a lesser degree, Palomar Mountain and Idyllwild will continue to draw some traffic from the metor region for vacation and retirement plans. I also think luxury spending winds down during an RE recession. Especially if a lot of people get hurt by it.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.