Future of US Housing Market?

[waiting hawk]

“Bought for $262,500 in 2003, sold for $95,000 last week”

“THIS is Sydney’s cheapest unit. The one-bedroom unit in Cabramatta sold at auction last week for $95,000. In November 2003 it cost $262,500.”

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/bought-for-262500-in-2003-sold-for-95000-last-week/2006/09/16/1158334735688.html

[powayseller]

A 63% drop. I am called extreme for suggesting it could happen here, because we are different. Hey, are we different? Perhaps their housing bubble dwarfed ours?

[PerryChase]

I can happen here also. Never say never.

[lindismith]

I think it will happen here.

Look at an area like Encanto, where homes sold for half a million bucks, purchased with crazy loans, by people who make minimum wage…. There is no doubt in my mind that areas like that will see trouble with a capital T.

[carlislematthew]

I am called extreme for suggesting it could happen here, because we are different. Hey, are we different? Perhaps their housing bubble dwarfed ours?

Not wanting to get into this old debate, but perhaps you’ll listen more closely this time. I’m game.

I, and others, have not labelled you an extremist because of your views, but because of the way you present them. You don’t simply predict a 50% drop, you state it as fact and call others delusional if they don’t agree with you.

You seem to have toned it down quite a bit over the past few weeks, but occasionally the old-style diplomacy creeps out. Dogs, tricks, etc…

[powayseller]

carlisle, my strong and witty writing style balances the ueber-spin meisters in the real estate and government industries. I have fun with it, and hope you do too.

Are you mad at David Lereah for saying “real estate never goes down, never has, never will” ? Are you upset with Greenspan for saying “there is no tech stock bubble, and there certainly is no housing bubble; we can identify bubbles only after the fact”?

[North County Jim]

my strong and witty writing style…

I know it’s a meatball right down the middle but I’ll leave the bat on my shoulder.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks NCJ,
You’ve inspired me to do the same.

[sdduuuude]

“my strong and witty writing style”

Caaaaan’t keeeep hands from key—-board.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGH.

[powayseller]

Thanks guys, for the compliments, although it was unexpected.

[VADCMD]

Auction is different from normal purchase because it is much more risky. Bidders usually do not have the time to collect info of what they are buying, such as home inspection etc.
The houses for auction are normally far from move-in condition. And they have to pay some cash at the same day if they win the auction.
What could be worse is that the previous owner may still live the house and at this situation, the winner has to do all the legal work to kick him/her out. It is time-consuming and costly.

[no_such_reality]

VADCMD, good point, that wasn’t a sale, that was a foreclosure and the unit was bought at the foreclosure auction.

[lindismith]

yes, that is a very good point about auctions.

And Perry’s right – why is she being held to a different standard? We all know a soft landing happened last year. How come some these industry people are still predicting it? How come we’re not outraged at them?

I think Poway’s writings are witty, and I like that she pushes the envelope. I think a lot of very good discussion, debate and analysis amongst us has come from her writing. On the days she’s not on this board, it gets boring.

I don’t take anything she says personally, and I’m not offended by it. I am not a home-owner, so perhaps that’s why?

[PerryChase]

Predictions are never “facts” and they are always based upon assumptions. Why should powayseller be held to a different standard than someone who’s prediting a soft landing?

What about professionals who are still predicting appreciation? Are their views not even more outlandish?

300k median prices in San Diego sounds reasonable to me. We’ll know the “facts” when they happen. Until then everything is opinion.

I happen to like powayseller’s “strong witty” style. It’s a nice change from the same old. powayseller’s style is like a RE investment informercial but in reverse. That’s OK by me because we need variety.

It’s only money. Please don’t take is personally.

[powayseller]

PerryChase, I appreciate your public support.

It appears that the people upset by my predictions are most likely homeowners. What I propose, a 50% nominal drop in San Diego home prices, is nothing short of scary. Some homeowners believe they are “safe” from price drops, because they bought a “superior property”, in a desireable neighborhood. (A “superior property” is a property that increased greatly in value during the bubble, but will *not* go down more than 5% or 10% because it is unique, owned by someone who will not be forced to sell, and has few sales, thus commanding higher prices.) For the record, that idea is fantasy. Every property will return to its baseline: its fundamental rental ratio and the price it would be today had the bubble never happened. So even “superior properties” will see big drops. I would need information on the pre-bubble prices of these properties to make a forecast, so I will save that for another day.

They say it is my style that offends, not my message. But hey, I am just a nice girl next door, that has coffee with the neighbors and carpools to church. I believe the threat is not my style, but the message itself.

They say they don’t like predictions, but they were silent when David Lereah told us for all those years that home prices never go down, real estate is a great investment, the changing demographics ensure a new permanently higher plateau. Lereah has the data that I could only wish I had! He doesn’t even have to make assumptions, because he has all the data to make accurate forecasts. But curiously, when he spins around the data he already has, there are zero objections from our real estate bulls. However, my assumptions are stated upfront, I am honest and sincere in my efforts, and it causes a ruckus. It’s very interesting to observe the reactions.

[Author]

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