August 30, 2006 at 12:00 AM #7377
I live in the San Carlos area, and have been tracking about 15 homes on Zip Realty that have been for sale in my surrounding area over the last 6 months or so.
I literally have not seen a house sell around here since May, and have watched these 15 homes sit on the market. Most have dropped their asking prices, some significantly. According to Zip Realty, there are currently 82 homes for sale in my zip code, and 52 of them have reduced prices (that’s 63.4%!).
One particular house finally sold, it closed about 10 days ago. I estimate that this house would have sold for about $530,000 a year ago. Here’s where it gets interesting:
It first was put on the market on Feb. 1, 2006,with an asking price range of $550,000 to $600,000. On May 1, the seller dropped their price to a range of $515,000-$530,000. On June 20th, they dropped the price down to a range of $460,000-$485,000. In mid-July, it went into escrow.
Today, I found out how much it sold for – $415,000! That’s about 22% less than it likely would have sold for in 2005. Also, the last time a comparable home sold this low was in November of 2003 (I have a list of every house sold in the area, going back to 2002). The house is in good shape, it’s not a dump or a fixer. My wife and I actually went to one of the open houses awhile back. We left the open house without saying bye to the realtor, who then literally ran after us down the street – no kidding! They had many open houses, I don’t ever recall seeing anyone attend.
Anyway, I’m sure the sellers are stunned, but I’d bet that a few years from now they will look back and realize that it could have been a lot worse!
One of the other houses I’ve been watching finally went into escrow about 3 weeks ago, I can’t wait to see how much it sells for. It has been on the market since October of 2005, with many price reductions. I’ll keep you all posted…August 30, 2006 at 2:08 AM #33935Diego MamaniParticipant
Great info! Keep up the good work.August 30, 2006 at 7:18 AM #33943no_such_realityParticipant
TP, what’s the last actual comp sale in the neighborhood? What did the homes in May go for? Are they roughly the same size, beds, baths?August 30, 2006 at 7:48 AM #33947barnaby33Participant
Just as a general question about your area, how would you define the geographic boundaries of San Carlos? I think I know where you are talking about, but am not sure.
JoshAugust 30, 2006 at 9:05 AM #33958BugsParticipant
San Carlos is pretty central to employment and services. When they’re taking a beating you know we’re in some real trouble.August 30, 2006 at 9:09 AM #33959lindismithParticipant
What were the prices like in San Carlos is 2001/2002 for the same house? Does anyone know?August 30, 2006 at 9:09 AM #33960Steve BeeboParticipant
The San Carlos area, (zip code 92119), is an interesting area to watch – it’s a typical middle-class area, with home prices ranging from about $425,000 to $800,000. I think this area is holding up better than most. There is no new housing to compete with resales – the area is 100% built-up.
I did an appraisal last week there for a refi. The house is about 2400 sf, built in 1969, with a new roof and new windows added around 2000. The current value is $630,000. I did an appraisal on the same house in March of 2003, and the value then was $450,000. I was looking at sales from 2004 and 2005, and I don’t think the value on this house ever got as high as $650,000.
In the first 8 months of 2006, there have been 104 sales in the zip code, an average of 13 sales per month. The sales have been fairly consistent throughout the year – starting in Jan. the sales per month have been: 5-9-19-15-15-13-15-13. There are currently 16 pending sales, and there are 81 active listings, so a 6.25 month supply of homes on the market. The big difference between this year vs. 2004 and 2005 is the number of actives.
Stats on sales for the first 8 months of 2006 vs. the first 8 months of 2005 and 2004:
2006: 104 sales Median – $566,000 – Avg. – $573,000 – days on market – 55
2005: 139 sales – Median – $560,000 – Avg. $568,000 – days on market – 50
2004: 155 sales – Median $517,000 – Avg. $540,000 – days on market – only 16 days.
Even though the number of sales is off 33% from last year, prices in this area have held steady – so far.August 30, 2006 at 9:47 AM #33966AnonymousGuest
Did the value pricing of $550-600K Feb 1 help these sellers?
Too bad they did not list at something like $495-525 back in February!
Would they have accepted a low ball offer of $450K even back then? I wonder. One useful statistic that is of course not captured by sales data is offers made and refused, some sort of asking price for a bid/ask spread comparison on this fairly illiquid market.August 30, 2006 at 10:11 AM #33970no_such_realityParticipant
Looks like overall average is just holding inflation since 2004.August 30, 2006 at 10:57 AM #33980
Colombo, I believe that they waited too long to bring their price down. It wasn’t until May that they dropped their price down to $515,000. The seller (but definitely their realtor!) should have known that a similar home about 1 block away (same # of bed & bath, same floor plan, similar condition) had sold for $515,000, it closed in March.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they got a better offer early on than what they eventually accepted. February and March of this year in my area seemed like a normal active market. But by May, nothing was moving.
No_such_reality, the house that sold for $515,000 in March is the last comp in the area for this type of house, until this latest house at $415,000.
Another house I’ve been tracking went into escrow about 3 weeks ago, I’m looking forward to seeing what their final selling price ends up being. It’s a 4 bed/3 bath, with a pool, that probably would have sold in the mid-$600 range a year ago. The sellers eventually reduced their price to $549,000, then it went into escrow about a month later.
Barnaby33, I would roughly define the San Carlos area as north of interstate 8, east of Del Cerro, south of Mission Gorge Rd., and west of hwy 125. Some portions of the eastern part of San Carlos border on La Mesa. Some nearby landmarks are Cowles Mt., Grossmont College, Lake Murray, and Mission Trails Golf Course. Most of the homes seem to have been built in the 60’s and 70’s.August 30, 2006 at 11:06 AM #33983
It looks like 2002 prices were in the low/mid-$300,000’s. I don’t have any data for 2001.August 30, 2006 at 11:23 AM #33987CardiffBaseballParticipant
How you do find out how much it sold for? Do you wait until it posts at the county or do you call the realtor?August 30, 2006 at 11:40 AM #33990
I check the San Diego Daily Transcript website, they list home sales on a daily basis, posting them about 10 days after they close.August 30, 2006 at 11:51 AM #33991sdrealtorParticipant
There are plenty of us out here. If any one wants information just ask and Im sure one of us with MLS will be happy to oblige.August 30, 2006 at 12:49 PM #34000PDParticipant
I know someone who has had their house for sale for months. They are in escrow at a price that is 40K below an offer they turned down a few months ago.
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