[Blissful Ignoramus]

It seems that none of the major SD Co. fires are contained to a significant degree.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

It seems that none of the major SD Co. fires are contained to a significant degree.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

I was going to reply to beachlover, but greensd said it all perfectly.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

I was going to reply to beachlover, but greensd said it all perfectly.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Interesting, but the problem with an analysis like this is that the sample size is so tiny. I don’t think you can conclude much from it about the magnitude of drops/increases in the more desirable areas, even though what you see does seem to support what you would expect.

However, I do think it would be great to see more stuff like this, perhaps not so much on a per street basis, but per zip code, school district, or development. That way the numbers are likely to be more significant, and allow one to see trends based on neighborhood desirability.

What we tend to hear instead, things like prices are down X% in Los Angeles County, are averaged over such a broad spectrum that they don’t have much meaning for the individual in a very specific place.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Interesting, but the problem with an analysis like this is that the sample size is so tiny. I don’t think you can conclude much from it about the magnitude of drops/increases in the more desirable areas, even though what you see does seem to support what you would expect.

However, I do think it would be great to see more stuff like this, perhaps not so much on a per street basis, but per zip code, school district, or development. That way the numbers are likely to be more significant, and allow one to see trends based on neighborhood desirability.

What we tend to hear instead, things like prices are down X% in Los Angeles County, are averaged over such a broad spectrum that they don’t have much meaning for the individual in a very specific place.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

A number of thoughts:

Isn’t the common wisdom around here that the deflation has just begun? You’re still in a hugely inflated market, therefore, it isn’t too surprising that the prices are just a bit below where they were two years ago. Good for you for selling at the peak — not the absolute top of the peak, but close enough.

Also, it’s obvious that some places are going to retain their value better than others, either with a slower rate of decline or less decline overall. The best and most desirable areas should fit that bill.

Pricing to sell is important. You probably did that.

And finally, all of the discussion about bubbles, etc., is about averages. People still overpay for real estate every day. You didn’t provide any information, but maybe you just got lucky.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

A number of thoughts:

Isn’t the common wisdom around here that the deflation has just begun? You’re still in a hugely inflated market, therefore, it isn’t too surprising that the prices are just a bit below where they were two years ago. Good for you for selling at the peak — not the absolute top of the peak, but close enough.

Also, it’s obvious that some places are going to retain their value better than others, either with a slower rate of decline or less decline overall. The best and most desirable areas should fit that bill.

Pricing to sell is important. You probably did that.

And finally, all of the discussion about bubbles, etc., is about averages. People still overpay for real estate every day. You didn’t provide any information, but maybe you just got lucky.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Wasn’t there a poll about this a couple of years ago here? Where people were supposed to predict what the annual year over year price drops would be, IIRC, from 2005 to 2006?

I’m not sure what the parameters were, but it seems to me that I was particularly conservative in that poll calling it in the single digits…

I expected the bubble burst to start slowly and maybe be a slippery slope that would pick up steam, to use three different metaphors in one phrase!

[Blissful Ignoramus]

hey lowball this http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076066162-1530_Kenalan_Dr_San_Diego_CA_92154

400 tablets of Sudafed and a teal 1996 Chevy Cavalier?

[Blissful Ignoramus]

I think you answered your question yourself:

I can afford the median OC home on a 3:1 salary/home price ratio, but can’t touch anything up here that wouldn’t be a 2 hr commute.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Brown lawners. That’s hilarious.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

I sold my home in Nov.’05 here in Diamond Bar, about 30 miles east of LA. It was a large custom home and I got $2M for it. It was paid off, so I put that money in CD’s. Not very exciting, but safe. I have since been renting a house in my old neighborhood for $2700 a month. When I do buy again, it will be a more modest home, probably in the $700K-$1M range (today’s prices).

Sounds like you might be able to buy your old house back!

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Both DOM and price reductions are being played around with. I saw the house I grew up in in Orange County up for $1,089K about a month ago. Now it’s on ziprealty as having been on the market since June 11 (weeks after I saw it listed before), with a price reduction of $999,990 to…get this…$999,980.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Not to mention the fact that if you should ever decide to sell the house, it’s better to have bought low than to have bought high.

So, if you buy the house at $800K and find that it can be sold for only $640K in 2-3 years, you’re going to be upside-down mightily if you only put in 5% down, even if your monthly payment is the same if you buy it at the lower price. This might not hurt you if you’re planning on staying in the house another ten years, but who knows where you will find yourself at that point.

I’m also not convinced that housing prices are going to drop 40-50%, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility, and if they drop 20% in 2-3 years as you propose, there is no reason to think they won’t continue to slide. I wouldn’t put my money into a house in San Diego right now unless I had 1) strong personal reasons to buy (i.e., kids and a very strong desire/need to make a stable home for them), 2) very high job security, and 3) fairly definite knowledge that I wouldn’t want or need to move for at least 8-10 years.

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