VOTE: state of the bubble collapse, Worse, OR Better than your expectation?

[SD Realtor]

My sentiment is kind of with Rich’s… The credit collapse was swift but for people to not acknowledge that the secondary market has already loosened is denial. There still are financing vehicles out there that provide easy money. The fundamental sacrificing of traditional limits for FHA will exascerbate the problem.

My biggest miscalculation was the significant reluctance of people in power (both political and economic) to actually let this country endure what it needs to go through to become strong again. In my estimation this will only serve to prolong the current condition rather then let it run the desired and much healthier natural course.

From the housing standpoint I am satisified with the pace of depreciation of speculative areas, condominiums and lower/middle neighborhoods. I am very disappointed with the pace depreciation of the more desireable neighborhoods. My second biggest miscalculation was that even in conditions like this, many people still will buy homes in these areas. Perhaps not as many as there used to be, but way more then I thought would be.

SD Realtor

[VoZangre]

All:

This blog is the single most useful tool in my education about the SD housing market. Though sharp of intellect, matters of money have never been my forte as I have let my mind roam about subjects more esoteric .( see poetry and guitar playing) while renting and travelling….

Now that there is a Lil-Missus-to-be (queue violins) with a firmly formed American Dream, I find myself in the position of needing to rectify my GrandCanyonesque ignorance.

That being said… I’d always an intuitive sense that the insane appreciation was built of flimsy cards… ( How can my exes postage stamp yards and cottage 20 yds from Ted William Park in North Park POSSIBLY be FUNDAMNETALLY worth what it was appraised at??) …

What little I know says this is tardy in arriving and immensely sad for those who wasted their life savings for teaser loans and ARMS and TRUSTED unscrupulous folks in the RE biz. I think the worst is yet to come…

Thank you all-

😉

What matters most
is how well you
walk through the fire…

[Anonymous]

In line with my expectations.

This week marked the first time I have ever looked at listings in neighborhoods that I know well in San Diego and said to myself, “Damn, those prices are dropping fast.” Even the asking prices are low now. EG: A neighborhood I know in Vista and another in San Marcos. 4-5 months ago, list prices still sememed to be at peak levels, and homes were sitting. Now, I am seeing homes priced at approx 2003 levels. EG: 525k at peak, now listed for 440k, 800 at peak, now listed for 575k. Santa Fe Hills in San Marcos…I see homes in the low 400s now that used to be in the 5-600s.

And to think, the foreclosure effect has not kicked in yet! Sales prices for this wave of foreclosures isn’t even factored in yet.

[drunkle]

i hope to see a horse named “housing bust” next year at del mar…

“go, housing bust, go!”

[NotCranky]

It’s housing bust neck and neck with inflation, flanked by joblessness and whoa, baby boomer just flipped over the rail and is down!!! BK speeds past…WAIT!!! It’s bottom feeder coming on strong…Bottom feeder taking the pack…It’s Bottom Feeder!!!

[nostradamus]

What’s bottom feeder?

[drunkle]

Epilogue:

Fed Cuts burned out early in the race followed quickly by Flipper and Mortgage Broker. Rounding out the trifecta is Bottom Feeder in first, Inflation in second and a surprise third place for Doom and Gloom. Boy, I tell ya, that was a heck of a race, a heck of race. We all saw Housing Bust coming, but who could have predicted Bottom Feeder breaking out? Nobody, and I mean nobody had their money on Bottom Feeder… Fed Cuts was everybody’s favorite, but what a dissappointing showing…

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Wasn’t there a poll about this a couple of years ago here? Where people were supposed to predict what the annual year over year price drops would be, IIRC, from 2005 to 2006?

I’m not sure what the parameters were, but it seems to me that I was particularly conservative in that poll calling it in the single digits…

I expected the bubble burst to start slowly and maybe be a slippery slope that would pick up steam, to use three different metaphors in one phrase!

[bobby]

so far the Bay Area (Peninsula) has not been affected by all of this.
I’m getting impatient!

[bob007]

ppl in this blog are way too impatient and self-centered.

high housing prices put a big burden on young couples who want to start families. i notice they are plenty of yuppies in california who postpone marriage or stay single.

while indivduals have the freedom/choice to make their own decisions the end result of these choices are the following

1. low birth rate among upper middle class folks especially in the coastal states and new england.

2. lack of funding for schools especially those of poor/working class kids (a lot of whom happen to be legal/illegal Latinos in California). I vehemently oppose illegal immigration and amnesty. But societal implications of under-educated Latinos youth are not hard to imagine. it does not do any good to housing values come 2025-2030.

3. oblivious to cultural concerns of those parents trying to raise kids
more trash on network and cable television.
more tolerance of alternate lifestyles

[temeculaguy]

Wow, don’t know what to make of that social commentary bob. Just to clarify for those scoring at home, #3 was a joke, right?

I’m with you on prohibitive cost of housing is affecting young families or families to be, that’s the primary reason it will return to normal. I do disagree that yuppies postpone marriage because of housing costs, being married cuts your housing cost by 50%, I think that people have postponed divorce because of the high cost of housing. I know I did and I know housing a single person in a house half the size is not half the cost, it’s closer to 75% of the cost.

Yuppies are postponing marriage because they want to and they should, marrying young isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.

Back to #3, do you honestly believe that the third component in the decline of western civilization will be the media’s tolerance of alternative lifestyles. I am a straight guy and a parent yet I have no fear that watching Will and Grace or Ellen on T.V. will make my kids gay. Rosie Odonnel might make you puke but it won’t make you gay. I am no expert but I have read a few books and I think the whole gay thing can’t be blamed on the media, scientists believe it has something to do with people being attracted to other people of the same sex, however I could be wrong and until I confirm it we all may want to stay away from the media.

[bonfire]

This bubble is deflating a little faster than I expected. The housing sentiment this fall, compared to last fall, is way more negative. It reminds me a lot of he 90’s, except that there has been a lot more speculation inflating the bubble this time around. The effects of the fact that the real estate “investors” have given up, and are letting their houses be foreclosed upon is just beginning to be felt. This is going to accelerate the slide in prices. I am with the Piggingtons who think that we have only just begun!

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc
my vote
It is a little better than I expected although we can finally see some momentum gaining. I think the psychology of the general public is important and it is that we are just in a slump and things will pick up soon. That is what the mainstream media is telling them so that is all they know. A lot of people in my area took their houses off the market and are renting them out til things pick up. I think they are in for a rude awakening. I don’t think the community of Valley Center knows anything about the bubble. They have over 200 high priced properties and still are listing with outrageous prices even tho they only sold 9 in August. Maybe they don’t have any news out there. That is the area I am waiting for.

[bsrsharma]

TG:

There is much statistical evidence that affordable family formation costs have been a major driver in pushing many “native born U.S. Citizen families” (code word for “White” folks?), especially in the lower middle class and below, from Blue states to Red states. This has created a vacuum for lower wage jobs (the category now labeled “Jobs Americans Won’t Do”) which in turn is sucking illegal immigrants into this country. This is a self-reinforcing cycle that will eventually make majority of Blue States Hispanic. The problem is, they have lower incomes and hence will drag down on tax receipts and lower the quality public services. So, the high housing costs, especially in Blue States, are causing a major National transformation. (To put it harshly, If US should not become another Mexico, housing costs have to come down)

[SHILOH]

The foreclosure and credit crunch happened faster than I expected. Price decline rate are happening as expected.
I would say like another poster, 2011 or 2012 might be bottom. For me, one question is what is going to prop up the SD economy from the loss of housing related income?

[Author]

Posts