VOTE: state of the bubble collapse, Worse, OR Better than your expectation?

[stockstradr]

Please post your vote.

Given what the Great Housing Bubble Collapse has morphed into the last three months, and given we are obviously not near a bottom yet…do you rate the unfolding housing collapse as:

A) WORSE than you expected
OR
B) BETTER than you expected

I’m curious what people think, because even for a pessimist I’m a bit stunned at how bad this housing collapse is looking, particularly when the data suggests the market has a lot further to fall down into the abyss.

[brian_in_la]

Deflating faster than I expected. Much faster. LA is actually deflating later and slower than SD, so SD is leading the pack down…still, declines all through what is normally the strong months of the market. Nov. – Jan. are going to be brutal.

[Sandi Egan]

The decline is pretty much what I expected.
The handling of the crisis by those in charge is much worse than it should be. Which again is in line with expectations.

[I would rather be lucky then smart]

BETTER then I expected.

I think there are too many chicken littles. I went through this as a homeowner in the 1990’s and I am not worried. Anybody with a little common sense who can make a decent financial decision in regards to purchasing housing should not be worried either.

[michigoose]

California and Florida are on track with what I expected, but Boston/NY are behind. I guess it will take a while for Wall St. bonuses to get hammered and all of the VC money in Boston’s biotech corridor to dry up.

I live in Michigan, and think we’ve seen the worst of it. Values might continue to decline in some areas – especially in some of the higher end suburbs of Detroit like the Grosse Pointes, and West Bloomfield.

We have been “the economic bellweather of the nation” for nearly a century and our decline started in 2002. The price/square foot values in my local area (Ann Arbor)have crept up about 1 1/2% over the last month and a half. Perhaps, it’s just noise in the system, but I’m hopeful. The higher end here will continue to get hammered as might the condo market, but the median detached homes are steadying out.

Of course, you can do the math. It’s 2007. Our decline has been going on for five years. We aren’t going up; we’re just starting to level out.

[Navydoc]

I think it’s happening a lot more quickly than I expected. The disappearance of creative financing overnight was something I didn’t quite foresee. I was worried that we wouldn’t be anywhere near the bottom in summer 2009 when I’ll be looking to buy, but now I’m not so sure.

It has been a very interesting summer. Can’t wait to see what happens next.

[Rich Toscano]

For me, it’s both. The tightening of lending conditions has happened much more abruptly than I expected (not sooner, but more abruptly once it finally started).

However, the deterioration of sentiment is happening more slowly than I would have expected. I am continually amazed at the level of stubborn denial out there.

Sorry, that wasn’t an A or B vote, but there you have it.

Rich

[one_muggle]

Denial. Isn’t that the river that runs through D.C.?

Well LA–at least the areas anyone want to live in, appears still to be holding up and Boston is actually going up (could be noise). I am surprised how hard and fast FL is dropping, and how slowly LA, Boston, and even parts of DC are holding up.

Durable goods tanked today, so the stock market went up… I wonder if anything short of a good shaker or a truly awful holiday season will perturb the SoCal economy.

-one muggle

[lendingbubblecontinues]

“I went through this as a homeowner in the 1990’s and I am not worried.”

Wrong. Unless you lived through the Great Depression, you’ve never lived through such rampant real estate speculation fed by non-existent lending guidelines.

“Anybody with a little common sense who can make a decent financial decision in regards to purchasing housing should not be worried either.”

Great…find me one, please. I think you’d have better luck finding Bigfoot.

Signed,
Chicken Little #92

…oh yeah, by the way, things are turning out to be just a bit more gloomy than the bird whistling zip-a-dee-doo-dah would like to have you believe, don’tcha think. Good luck with all that.

[HereWeGo]

I did not see the credit crunch coming, but in retrospect, it was obvious. The downturn was moving along about as expected until that development.

Honestly, until that point, I believed that exports to the strong world economy would more than offset the effects of the housing downturn. Unfortunately, the combined effect of the credit crunch and the housing downturn will probably prove to be a bit too much for the US economy.

muggle – This won’t be the first time Wall Street has bull rushed into a downturn.

[nostradamus]

This ain’t the 90’s. Back then, ARM loans were the exception, not the norm. 100% financing in the 90’s? Unheard of.

That being said, I made a sheetload off the SPF stock someone here posted (thanks! After the fed rate cut it went up 18%, I shorted it, it went down 39%) so I’d say this deflation is going GREAT. Depends on your perspective I reckon!

[temeculaguy]

I think Riverside County is worse/faster than I expected and S.D. is slower than I expected. Temecula/Murrieta/Etc is 25% accross the board decline and falling. S.D. seems much more sticky. With the sweeping changes in financing I would have expected more from S.D. since most are priced well into the jumbo range and it was the creative financing/arm/neg am capitol of the world in 04/05. How that house of cards is still standing is beyond me. I guess everyone does wan’t to live there and R/E never goes down on the coast or chowderhead’s Jedi mind tricks are working.

[cashflow]

I have been watching both Riverside and San Diego markets and I have to ditto Tem.Guy’s comments! I am shocked at how sellers are holding out in San Diego, even with days on market going up and up. Some that do decrease the list price do so only by 5-10k increments. What are they thinking?? For a buyer needing to finance a loan the 5-10k decrease doesn’t do much, so this will not get their home sold.

I’m anxious to see Rich’s analysis of the Shiller Price index for Sept/Oct. as I think the credit crunch and after summer sales months will show a sharper decrease in prices even for prime parts of SD.

Temecula/Murr. declines have surprised me a bit on how fast things have gone down there. We were looking at buying in that area and held off, now I’m very glad we did. The values are coming down, and because we really like Temecula, it’s getting tempting again…but I still believe this area will continue to deflate for awhile…too much inventory and more funky loans to reset!

Time will tell for all us bubblesitters!

[stockstradr]

Thanks everyone for posting great responses.

Thing I love about this wacky forum is that it is obscure enough that it attracts a smart, savvy crowd, with opinions worth reading

[bsrsharma]

Actually I consider August 17 as “the” moment. So, it is not yet 3 months in my calender. Now, even @ half time, the game looks interesting enough. The right time for your survey is around Thanksgiving-Christmas-New Year. By then, there will be enough data to extrapolate for next year. So far, I consider the damage is smaller than expected. My scale is rather simple. Less than 5% unemployment = Good, 5 – 6%: Moderately bad; More than 7% = Really bad. On that scale, it is still good time now.

[Author]

Posts