Temperature Check for 2008 – Now how low do you think it will go?

[Sandi Egan]

I just talked to a $50. It says:

* 70% drops, not widespread, will be observed in worst areas
* 40% max drops in the best areas that existed before 2001.

The history will remember this as a 50% drop; the median for the county will drop by about that much.

[sdrealtor]

I’m still thinking about 30% off peak in my submarket which is the only area I feel truly qualified to comment on. For those wondering, that puts a 4BR/3BA 2600 sq ft home built in 1999 or later in the La Costa/Encinitas area in the mid to low 600’s at the bottom. If it goes lower I will admit defeat.

Russ, Hats off to you for calling the Big Chunk which has certainly hit the outlying areas which I dont follow so closely. I look at places like Esconodido and Chulajuana and see 20% plus declines since August. Right on Bro!!

[sdrealtor]

I’m still thinking about 30% off peak in my submarket which is the only area I feel truly qualified to comment on. For those wondering, that puts a 4BR/3BA 2600 sq ft home built in 1999 or later in the La Costa/Encinitas area in the mid to low 600’s at the bottom. If it goes lower I will admit defeat.

Russ, Hats off to you for calling the Big Chunk which has certainly hit the outlying areas which I dont follow so closely. I look at places like Esconodido and Chulajuana and see 20% plus declines since August. Right on Bro!!

[sdrealtor]

I’m still thinking about 30% off peak in my submarket which is the only area I feel truly qualified to comment on. For those wondering, that puts a 4BR/3BA 2600 sq ft home built in 1999 or later in the La Costa/Encinitas area in the mid to low 600’s at the bottom. If it goes lower I will admit defeat.

Russ, Hats off to you for calling the Big Chunk which has certainly hit the outlying areas which I dont follow so closely. I look at places like Esconodido and Chulajuana and see 20% plus declines since August. Right on Bro!!

[sdrealtor]

I’m still thinking about 30% off peak in my submarket which is the only area I feel truly qualified to comment on. For those wondering, that puts a 4BR/3BA 2600 sq ft home built in 1999 or later in the La Costa/Encinitas area in the mid to low 600’s at the bottom. If it goes lower I will admit defeat.

Russ, Hats off to you for calling the Big Chunk which has certainly hit the outlying areas which I dont follow so closely. I look at places like Esconodido and Chulajuana and see 20% plus declines since August. Right on Bro!!

[sdrealtor]

I’m still thinking about 30% off peak in my submarket which is the only area I feel truly qualified to comment on. For those wondering, that puts a 4BR/3BA 2600 sq ft home built in 1999 or later in the La Costa/Encinitas area in the mid to low 600’s at the bottom. If it goes lower I will admit defeat.

Russ, Hats off to you for calling the Big Chunk which has certainly hit the outlying areas which I dont follow so closely. I look at places like Esconodido and Chulajuana and see 20% plus declines since August. Right on Bro!!

[stansd]

There may be pockets at 60%, but not as an overall average. Even in Temecula, areas are hurting, but 80% puts a 500K 2005/2006 house at 100K. At 70% in my area, a 600K house becomes 180K. Median income here depending on source is somewhere between 70K/90K I don’t see it, my friend at 2X income in a deirable area. I don’t see it at 3X income for SD overall. I can barely buy that same house 30 minutes outside of Omaha where my mother in law lives for 180K.

If you just look at things on a cost/sq ft versus what it takes to build that makes no sense. Also makes no sense as a rent multiplier unless you assume rents come way down. A 2,000 sq ft house is going to be at least 250K just to put the thing up. Imputed land value would be zero. A reasonable rent multiplier will still put it well over 300K

I just don’t see it.

Stan

[stansd]

There may be pockets at 60%, but not as an overall average. Even in Temecula, areas are hurting, but 80% puts a 500K 2005/2006 house at 100K. At 70% in my area, a 600K house becomes 180K. Median income here depending on source is somewhere between 70K/90K I don’t see it, my friend at 2X income in a deirable area. I don’t see it at 3X income for SD overall. I can barely buy that same house 30 minutes outside of Omaha where my mother in law lives for 180K.

If you just look at things on a cost/sq ft versus what it takes to build that makes no sense. Also makes no sense as a rent multiplier unless you assume rents come way down. A 2,000 sq ft house is going to be at least 250K just to put the thing up. Imputed land value would be zero. A reasonable rent multiplier will still put it well over 300K

I just don’t see it.

Stan

[stansd]

There may be pockets at 60%, but not as an overall average. Even in Temecula, areas are hurting, but 80% puts a 500K 2005/2006 house at 100K. At 70% in my area, a 600K house becomes 180K. Median income here depending on source is somewhere between 70K/90K I don’t see it, my friend at 2X income in a deirable area. I don’t see it at 3X income for SD overall. I can barely buy that same house 30 minutes outside of Omaha where my mother in law lives for 180K.

If you just look at things on a cost/sq ft versus what it takes to build that makes no sense. Also makes no sense as a rent multiplier unless you assume rents come way down. A 2,000 sq ft house is going to be at least 250K just to put the thing up. Imputed land value would be zero. A reasonable rent multiplier will still put it well over 300K

I just don’t see it.

Stan

[stansd]

There may be pockets at 60%, but not as an overall average. Even in Temecula, areas are hurting, but 80% puts a 500K 2005/2006 house at 100K. At 70% in my area, a 600K house becomes 180K. Median income here depending on source is somewhere between 70K/90K I don’t see it, my friend at 2X income in a deirable area. I don’t see it at 3X income for SD overall. I can barely buy that same house 30 minutes outside of Omaha where my mother in law lives for 180K.

If you just look at things on a cost/sq ft versus what it takes to build that makes no sense. Also makes no sense as a rent multiplier unless you assume rents come way down. A 2,000 sq ft house is going to be at least 250K just to put the thing up. Imputed land value would be zero. A reasonable rent multiplier will still put it well over 300K

I just don’t see it.

Stan

[stansd]

There may be pockets at 60%, but not as an overall average. Even in Temecula, areas are hurting, but 80% puts a 500K 2005/2006 house at 100K. At 70% in my area, a 600K house becomes 180K. Median income here depending on source is somewhere between 70K/90K I don’t see it, my friend at 2X income in a deirable area. I don’t see it at 3X income for SD overall. I can barely buy that same house 30 minutes outside of Omaha where my mother in law lives for 180K.

If you just look at things on a cost/sq ft versus what it takes to build that makes no sense. Also makes no sense as a rent multiplier unless you assume rents come way down. A 2,000 sq ft house is going to be at least 250K just to put the thing up. Imputed land value would be zero. A reasonable rent multiplier will still put it well over 300K

I just don’t see it.

Stan

[kev374]

If it comes down by 50% we will still be above the price levels from the last bottom so I think 50% is very reasonable to expect.

[kev374]

If it comes down by 50% we will still be above the price levels from the last bottom so I think 50% is very reasonable to expect.

[kev374]

If it comes down by 50% we will still be above the price levels from the last bottom so I think 50% is very reasonable to expect.

[kev374]

If it comes down by 50% we will still be above the price levels from the last bottom so I think 50% is very reasonable to expect.

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