Temperature Check for 2008 – Now how low do you think it will go?

[pemeliza]

There are so many wildcards right now it boggles my mind.

The biggest of which IMHO is interest rates. We have already shut out the subpar buyers with tighter lending standards. Substantially higher interest rates from here would be a death blow to the perma-bulls. A month ago I would have said that rates are going to go down to record lows and possibly reignite the market. They went down but couldn’t hold.

I don’t buy the ‘seller holdout’ theory. Entire communities were built at the peak of the market (e.g. Encinitas Ranch, La Costa Oaks to name a few) and are already underwater. Sure some folks can ride it out but whole communities?

I have more confidence in the built areas like La Jolla and Point Loma. Good deals will happen but they will be far in few between. I think the drops in the rock solid ‘built areas’ will max out at 30%.

In the newer areas we could see price drops approaching 50% especially if they are in the lesser school districts. Those with the best schools will fair better.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m going to cover my ass and say that I don’t know.

But considering all the wildcards, prices have nowhere to go but down. Negative 5% to 10% per year is pretty much in the bag until the uncertainties, foreclosures and inventory get resolved.

Some neighborhood will do better than others on a nominal basis. But over years, on an inflation adjusted basis, they will all be at the same level. I can see a time when Chula Vista bottoms and slowly trends upwards while Carmel Valley stagnates.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m going to cover my ass and say that I don’t know.

But considering all the wildcards, prices have nowhere to go but down. Negative 5% to 10% per year is pretty much in the bag until the uncertainties, foreclosures and inventory get resolved.

Some neighborhood will do better than others on a nominal basis. But over years, on an inflation adjusted basis, they will all be at the same level. I can see a time when Chula Vista bottoms and slowly trends upwards while Carmel Valley stagnates.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m going to cover my ass and say that I don’t know.

But considering all the wildcards, prices have nowhere to go but down. Negative 5% to 10% per year is pretty much in the bag until the uncertainties, foreclosures and inventory get resolved.

Some neighborhood will do better than others on a nominal basis. But over years, on an inflation adjusted basis, they will all be at the same level. I can see a time when Chula Vista bottoms and slowly trends upwards while Carmel Valley stagnates.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m going to cover my ass and say that I don’t know.

But considering all the wildcards, prices have nowhere to go but down. Negative 5% to 10% per year is pretty much in the bag until the uncertainties, foreclosures and inventory get resolved.

Some neighborhood will do better than others on a nominal basis. But over years, on an inflation adjusted basis, they will all be at the same level. I can see a time when Chula Vista bottoms and slowly trends upwards while Carmel Valley stagnates.

[patientlywaiting]

I’m going to cover my ass and say that I don’t know.

But considering all the wildcards, prices have nowhere to go but down. Negative 5% to 10% per year is pretty much in the bag until the uncertainties, foreclosures and inventory get resolved.

Some neighborhood will do better than others on a nominal basis. But over years, on an inflation adjusted basis, they will all be at the same level. I can see a time when Chula Vista bottoms and slowly trends upwards while Carmel Valley stagnates.

[eyePod]

“…would be a death blow to the perma-bulls.”
Are there any of these left?

[eyePod]

“…would be a death blow to the perma-bulls.”
Are there any of these left?

[eyePod]

“…would be a death blow to the perma-bulls.”
Are there any of these left?

[eyePod]

“…would be a death blow to the perma-bulls.”
Are there any of these left?

[eyePod]

“…would be a death blow to the perma-bulls.”
Are there any of these left?

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[Author]

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