Temperature Check for 2008 – Now how low do you think it will go?

[CA renter]

I was thinking in late 2004 that prices would drop between 35% and 50% from that point. Guess that means it will be more than 50% from peak, since many areas saw increases even from that point.

As you all know, some areas are already down over 50%, so it’s not at all inconceivable that we’ll see more significant drops as we move through the recession/depression.

[davelj]

I’m gonna stick to my guns and guess that we’ll ultimately see a 35%-40% decline in the median SD County home price – or about double what we’ve seen so far. Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon, East County, etc. I see at a 50% decline in the median. The higher end areas – La Jolla, RSF, etc. – I’d guess at a 20% decline. I haven’t changed my views because I’m not really surprised by what we’re seeing… yet.

But, I could be wrong. I just think that on an inflation-adjusted basis, once we’re down another 20% (nominal), you’re going to see a hell of a lot more people able to afford homes and, hell, we’ll probably even see some people start to migrate INto SD County again. Again, I could be wrong, but it’s hard to convince me at this point that once the rent/purchase trade-off becomes a coin flip from an economic standpoint that people aren’t going to buy en masse. But we’ve still got quite a ways to go to get there.

[davelj]

I’m gonna stick to my guns and guess that we’ll ultimately see a 35%-40% decline in the median SD County home price – or about double what we’ve seen so far. Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon, East County, etc. I see at a 50% decline in the median. The higher end areas – La Jolla, RSF, etc. – I’d guess at a 20% decline. I haven’t changed my views because I’m not really surprised by what we’re seeing… yet.

But, I could be wrong. I just think that on an inflation-adjusted basis, once we’re down another 20% (nominal), you’re going to see a hell of a lot more people able to afford homes and, hell, we’ll probably even see some people start to migrate INto SD County again. Again, I could be wrong, but it’s hard to convince me at this point that once the rent/purchase trade-off becomes a coin flip from an economic standpoint that people aren’t going to buy en masse. But we’ve still got quite a ways to go to get there.

[davelj]

I’m gonna stick to my guns and guess that we’ll ultimately see a 35%-40% decline in the median SD County home price – or about double what we’ve seen so far. Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon, East County, etc. I see at a 50% decline in the median. The higher end areas – La Jolla, RSF, etc. – I’d guess at a 20% decline. I haven’t changed my views because I’m not really surprised by what we’re seeing… yet.

But, I could be wrong. I just think that on an inflation-adjusted basis, once we’re down another 20% (nominal), you’re going to see a hell of a lot more people able to afford homes and, hell, we’ll probably even see some people start to migrate INto SD County again. Again, I could be wrong, but it’s hard to convince me at this point that once the rent/purchase trade-off becomes a coin flip from an economic standpoint that people aren’t going to buy en masse. But we’ve still got quite a ways to go to get there.

[davelj]

I’m gonna stick to my guns and guess that we’ll ultimately see a 35%-40% decline in the median SD County home price – or about double what we’ve seen so far. Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon, East County, etc. I see at a 50% decline in the median. The higher end areas – La Jolla, RSF, etc. – I’d guess at a 20% decline. I haven’t changed my views because I’m not really surprised by what we’re seeing… yet.

But, I could be wrong. I just think that on an inflation-adjusted basis, once we’re down another 20% (nominal), you’re going to see a hell of a lot more people able to afford homes and, hell, we’ll probably even see some people start to migrate INto SD County again. Again, I could be wrong, but it’s hard to convince me at this point that once the rent/purchase trade-off becomes a coin flip from an economic standpoint that people aren’t going to buy en masse. But we’ve still got quite a ways to go to get there.

[davelj]

I’m gonna stick to my guns and guess that we’ll ultimately see a 35%-40% decline in the median SD County home price – or about double what we’ve seen so far. Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon, East County, etc. I see at a 50% decline in the median. The higher end areas – La Jolla, RSF, etc. – I’d guess at a 20% decline. I haven’t changed my views because I’m not really surprised by what we’re seeing… yet.

But, I could be wrong. I just think that on an inflation-adjusted basis, once we’re down another 20% (nominal), you’re going to see a hell of a lot more people able to afford homes and, hell, we’ll probably even see some people start to migrate INto SD County again. Again, I could be wrong, but it’s hard to convince me at this point that once the rent/purchase trade-off becomes a coin flip from an economic standpoint that people aren’t going to buy en masse. But we’ve still got quite a ways to go to get there.

[stansd]

I think you those of you forecasting 60-70% declines are smoking weed. If that happens, we are in an economic downturn similar in magnitude to the great depression (granted a number of you see that in the cards). In addition, long before we get anywhere near those kinds of numbers on a nominal basis, helicopter Ben will inflate us right out of it. Maybe you could see 60% on a real basis, but there is just no way that’s happening nominally.

My prediction is for another 20% from where we are putting the total at around 40%. That puts a 3BR, 2BA, 1,600 sq. ft house here in RB a bit under 400K, which I think is about where it will land.

Stan

[stansd]

I think you those of you forecasting 60-70% declines are smoking weed. If that happens, we are in an economic downturn similar in magnitude to the great depression (granted a number of you see that in the cards). In addition, long before we get anywhere near those kinds of numbers on a nominal basis, helicopter Ben will inflate us right out of it. Maybe you could see 60% on a real basis, but there is just no way that’s happening nominally.

My prediction is for another 20% from where we are putting the total at around 40%. That puts a 3BR, 2BA, 1,600 sq. ft house here in RB a bit under 400K, which I think is about where it will land.

Stan

[stansd]

I think you those of you forecasting 60-70% declines are smoking weed. If that happens, we are in an economic downturn similar in magnitude to the great depression (granted a number of you see that in the cards). In addition, long before we get anywhere near those kinds of numbers on a nominal basis, helicopter Ben will inflate us right out of it. Maybe you could see 60% on a real basis, but there is just no way that’s happening nominally.

My prediction is for another 20% from where we are putting the total at around 40%. That puts a 3BR, 2BA, 1,600 sq. ft house here in RB a bit under 400K, which I think is about where it will land.

Stan

[stansd]

I think you those of you forecasting 60-70% declines are smoking weed. If that happens, we are in an economic downturn similar in magnitude to the great depression (granted a number of you see that in the cards). In addition, long before we get anywhere near those kinds of numbers on a nominal basis, helicopter Ben will inflate us right out of it. Maybe you could see 60% on a real basis, but there is just no way that’s happening nominally.

My prediction is for another 20% from where we are putting the total at around 40%. That puts a 3BR, 2BA, 1,600 sq. ft house here in RB a bit under 400K, which I think is about where it will land.

Stan

[stansd]

I think you those of you forecasting 60-70% declines are smoking weed. If that happens, we are in an economic downturn similar in magnitude to the great depression (granted a number of you see that in the cards). In addition, long before we get anywhere near those kinds of numbers on a nominal basis, helicopter Ben will inflate us right out of it. Maybe you could see 60% on a real basis, but there is just no way that’s happening nominally.

My prediction is for another 20% from where we are putting the total at around 40%. That puts a 3BR, 2BA, 1,600 sq. ft house here in RB a bit under 400K, which I think is about where it will land.

Stan

[vizcaya]

I did my research last year, and in Septmember I guessed the the bottom would be about %35 from peak. I listened to many on here, and others came to the same conclusion. Now in my area(92508), the the drop has hit 35%. I am now re-adjusting my prediction that it may be up to 50% possible more in less desireable areas.
Since there were many homes sold in 2005, I am expecting many to walk away rather than keep thier home. Even if they can afford it. From what I see, these newer developments are almost like ghost towns, with overgrown lawns, and vacant homes. Not exactly what I would call a place to live, no matter how nice the house is. I am glad we chose to live in a established neighborhood. It was tempting to look at these newer model homes and get locked into buying into a new community.

[vizcaya]

I did my research last year, and in Septmember I guessed the the bottom would be about %35 from peak. I listened to many on here, and others came to the same conclusion. Now in my area(92508), the the drop has hit 35%. I am now re-adjusting my prediction that it may be up to 50% possible more in less desireable areas.
Since there were many homes sold in 2005, I am expecting many to walk away rather than keep thier home. Even if they can afford it. From what I see, these newer developments are almost like ghost towns, with overgrown lawns, and vacant homes. Not exactly what I would call a place to live, no matter how nice the house is. I am glad we chose to live in a established neighborhood. It was tempting to look at these newer model homes and get locked into buying into a new community.

[vizcaya]

I did my research last year, and in Septmember I guessed the the bottom would be about %35 from peak. I listened to many on here, and others came to the same conclusion. Now in my area(92508), the the drop has hit 35%. I am now re-adjusting my prediction that it may be up to 50% possible more in less desireable areas.
Since there were many homes sold in 2005, I am expecting many to walk away rather than keep thier home. Even if they can afford it. From what I see, these newer developments are almost like ghost towns, with overgrown lawns, and vacant homes. Not exactly what I would call a place to live, no matter how nice the house is. I am glad we chose to live in a established neighborhood. It was tempting to look at these newer model homes and get locked into buying into a new community.

[vizcaya]

I did my research last year, and in Septmember I guessed the the bottom would be about %35 from peak. I listened to many on here, and others came to the same conclusion. Now in my area(92508), the the drop has hit 35%. I am now re-adjusting my prediction that it may be up to 50% possible more in less desireable areas.
Since there were many homes sold in 2005, I am expecting many to walk away rather than keep thier home. Even if they can afford it. From what I see, these newer developments are almost like ghost towns, with overgrown lawns, and vacant homes. Not exactly what I would call a place to live, no matter how nice the house is. I am glad we chose to live in a established neighborhood. It was tempting to look at these newer model homes and get locked into buying into a new community.

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