Temperature Check for 2008 – Now how low do you think it will go?

[vizcaya]

I did my research last year, and in Septmember I guessed the the bottom would be about %35 from peak. I listened to many on here, and others came to the same conclusion. Now in my area(92508), the the drop has hit 35%. I am now re-adjusting my prediction that it may be up to 50% possible more in less desireable areas.
Since there were many homes sold in 2005, I am expecting many to walk away rather than keep thier home. Even if they can afford it. From what I see, these newer developments are almost like ghost towns, with overgrown lawns, and vacant homes. Not exactly what I would call a place to live, no matter how nice the house is. I am glad we chose to live in a established neighborhood. It was tempting to look at these newer model homes and get locked into buying into a new community.

[kewp]

Stansd,

We are already seeing 60% declines in Temecula and downtown. I would say 70%-80% is in the bag for those areas before prices stop falling. Its also possible the worst areas will become illiquid and properties will be have to be demolished or seized by HUD. That would be a 100% drop! 🙂

While I think we will have a fairly severe recession driven by the housing bust, I don’t think that in and of itself will force the big declines. There are simply too many empty properties and not enough buyers/investors to meet the demand.

Re:Helicopter Ben,

Liquidity is a notorious coward. I.e., you can’t force it go where it doesn’t want to. And the Fed isn’t giving that money directly to home buyers, its all going to banks that are hoarding it to cover their current losses. Plus this isn’t the 70’s, so don’t expect wage inflation to make up the difference.

[kewp]

Stansd,

We are already seeing 60% declines in Temecula and downtown. I would say 70%-80% is in the bag for those areas before prices stop falling. Its also possible the worst areas will become illiquid and properties will be have to be demolished or seized by HUD. That would be a 100% drop! 🙂

While I think we will have a fairly severe recession driven by the housing bust, I don’t think that in and of itself will force the big declines. There are simply too many empty properties and not enough buyers/investors to meet the demand.

Re:Helicopter Ben,

Liquidity is a notorious coward. I.e., you can’t force it go where it doesn’t want to. And the Fed isn’t giving that money directly to home buyers, its all going to banks that are hoarding it to cover their current losses. Plus this isn’t the 70’s, so don’t expect wage inflation to make up the difference.

[kewp]

Stansd,

We are already seeing 60% declines in Temecula and downtown. I would say 70%-80% is in the bag for those areas before prices stop falling. Its also possible the worst areas will become illiquid and properties will be have to be demolished or seized by HUD. That would be a 100% drop! 🙂

While I think we will have a fairly severe recession driven by the housing bust, I don’t think that in and of itself will force the big declines. There are simply too many empty properties and not enough buyers/investors to meet the demand.

Re:Helicopter Ben,

Liquidity is a notorious coward. I.e., you can’t force it go where it doesn’t want to. And the Fed isn’t giving that money directly to home buyers, its all going to banks that are hoarding it to cover their current losses. Plus this isn’t the 70’s, so don’t expect wage inflation to make up the difference.

[kewp]

Stansd,

We are already seeing 60% declines in Temecula and downtown. I would say 70%-80% is in the bag for those areas before prices stop falling. Its also possible the worst areas will become illiquid and properties will be have to be demolished or seized by HUD. That would be a 100% drop! 🙂

While I think we will have a fairly severe recession driven by the housing bust, I don’t think that in and of itself will force the big declines. There are simply too many empty properties and not enough buyers/investors to meet the demand.

Re:Helicopter Ben,

Liquidity is a notorious coward. I.e., you can’t force it go where it doesn’t want to. And the Fed isn’t giving that money directly to home buyers, its all going to banks that are hoarding it to cover their current losses. Plus this isn’t the 70’s, so don’t expect wage inflation to make up the difference.

[kewp]

Stansd,

We are already seeing 60% declines in Temecula and downtown. I would say 70%-80% is in the bag for those areas before prices stop falling. Its also possible the worst areas will become illiquid and properties will be have to be demolished or seized by HUD. That would be a 100% drop! 🙂

While I think we will have a fairly severe recession driven by the housing bust, I don’t think that in and of itself will force the big declines. There are simply too many empty properties and not enough buyers/investors to meet the demand.

Re:Helicopter Ben,

Liquidity is a notorious coward. I.e., you can’t force it go where it doesn’t want to. And the Fed isn’t giving that money directly to home buyers, its all going to banks that are hoarding it to cover their current losses. Plus this isn’t the 70’s, so don’t expect wage inflation to make up the difference.

[5yearwaiter]

Folks !! our FED trying to maintain the path as low as smooth landing. But it wouldn’t control much, now the landing is very bumpy and sure the prices are lowering to an average -50% in SD metro and an avg of -70% SD outskirts. Just be patient to the news to hear

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Folks !! our FED trying to maintain the path as low as smooth landing. But it wouldn’t control much, now the landing is very bumpy and sure the prices are lowering to an average -50% in SD metro and an avg of -70% SD outskirts. Just be patient to the news to hear

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Folks !! our FED trying to maintain the path as low as smooth landing. But it wouldn’t control much, now the landing is very bumpy and sure the prices are lowering to an average -50% in SD metro and an avg of -70% SD outskirts. Just be patient to the news to hear

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Folks !! our FED trying to maintain the path as low as smooth landing. But it wouldn’t control much, now the landing is very bumpy and sure the prices are lowering to an average -50% in SD metro and an avg of -70% SD outskirts. Just be patient to the news to hear

5yearswaiter

[5yearwaiter]

Folks !! our FED trying to maintain the path as low as smooth landing. But it wouldn’t control much, now the landing is very bumpy and sure the prices are lowering to an average -50% in SD metro and an avg of -70% SD outskirts. Just be patient to the news to hear

5yearswaiter

[Sandi Egan]

I just talked to a $50. It says:

* 70% drops, not widespread, will be observed in worst areas
* 40% max drops in the best areas that existed before 2001.

The history will remember this as a 50% drop; the median for the county will drop by about that much.

[Sandi Egan]

I just talked to a $50. It says:

* 70% drops, not widespread, will be observed in worst areas
* 40% max drops in the best areas that existed before 2001.

The history will remember this as a 50% drop; the median for the county will drop by about that much.

[Sandi Egan]

I just talked to a $50. It says:

* 70% drops, not widespread, will be observed in worst areas
* 40% max drops in the best areas that existed before 2001.

The history will remember this as a 50% drop; the median for the county will drop by about that much.

[Sandi Egan]

I just talked to a $50. It says:

* 70% drops, not widespread, will be observed in worst areas
* 40% max drops in the best areas that existed before 2001.

The history will remember this as a 50% drop; the median for the county will drop by about that much.

[Author]

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