Temperature Check for 2008 – Now how low do you think it will go?

[kewp]

I still think we are in the first inning.

We still have coming up…

Lots of ARM resets, especially of the option variety.

Banks unloading repos.

Credit crunch.

Inflation.

And most importantly, a massive recession brought on by and then exacerbating the above.

I think ’99 prices are in the bag (may take a few years to get there). If the economy doesn’t recover and we overshoot, ’89 here we come.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: 50%-70% by the time it hits bottom. There’s already a ton of inventory out there and it’s going to grow even more as the foreclosures continue, ARM’s reset and people who have to sell due to job loss in a weakening economy lose their jobs, etc. You just can’t have that much inventory without it severely attacking prices. Six months ago, when I first came on this board, I posted that I thought Temecula would fall like a rock and fall long before San Diego. Then it would creep down into areas closer to SD and then into the expensive, more desirable areas. (I’m talking single family homes: not condo’s) They were a sure bet to fall first and fast due to the overbuilding, high fees, bums peeing and defecating on the entrance to the buildings and other problems associated with living downtown. There are only a limited number of willing, qualified buyers to match the inventory problem and this along with the economy and a myriad of other problems will drive prices down a minimum of 50% in SD and SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: 50%-70% by the time it hits bottom. There’s already a ton of inventory out there and it’s going to grow even more as the foreclosures continue, ARM’s reset and people who have to sell due to job loss in a weakening economy lose their jobs, etc. You just can’t have that much inventory without it severely attacking prices. Six months ago, when I first came on this board, I posted that I thought Temecula would fall like a rock and fall long before San Diego. Then it would creep down into areas closer to SD and then into the expensive, more desirable areas. (I’m talking single family homes: not condo’s) They were a sure bet to fall first and fast due to the overbuilding, high fees, bums peeing and defecating on the entrance to the buildings and other problems associated with living downtown. There are only a limited number of willing, qualified buyers to match the inventory problem and this along with the economy and a myriad of other problems will drive prices down a minimum of 50% in SD and SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: 50%-70% by the time it hits bottom. There’s already a ton of inventory out there and it’s going to grow even more as the foreclosures continue, ARM’s reset and people who have to sell due to job loss in a weakening economy lose their jobs, etc. You just can’t have that much inventory without it severely attacking prices. Six months ago, when I first came on this board, I posted that I thought Temecula would fall like a rock and fall long before San Diego. Then it would creep down into areas closer to SD and then into the expensive, more desirable areas. (I’m talking single family homes: not condo’s) They were a sure bet to fall first and fast due to the overbuilding, high fees, bums peeing and defecating on the entrance to the buildings and other problems associated with living downtown. There are only a limited number of willing, qualified buyers to match the inventory problem and this along with the economy and a myriad of other problems will drive prices down a minimum of 50% in SD and SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: 50%-70% by the time it hits bottom. There’s already a ton of inventory out there and it’s going to grow even more as the foreclosures continue, ARM’s reset and people who have to sell due to job loss in a weakening economy lose their jobs, etc. You just can’t have that much inventory without it severely attacking prices. Six months ago, when I first came on this board, I posted that I thought Temecula would fall like a rock and fall long before San Diego. Then it would creep down into areas closer to SD and then into the expensive, more desirable areas. (I’m talking single family homes: not condo’s) They were a sure bet to fall first and fast due to the overbuilding, high fees, bums peeing and defecating on the entrance to the buildings and other problems associated with living downtown. There are only a limited number of willing, qualified buyers to match the inventory problem and this along with the economy and a myriad of other problems will drive prices down a minimum of 50% in SD and SoCal.

[Ex-SD]

IMHO: 50%-70% by the time it hits bottom. There’s already a ton of inventory out there and it’s going to grow even more as the foreclosures continue, ARM’s reset and people who have to sell due to job loss in a weakening economy lose their jobs, etc. You just can’t have that much inventory without it severely attacking prices. Six months ago, when I first came on this board, I posted that I thought Temecula would fall like a rock and fall long before San Diego. Then it would creep down into areas closer to SD and then into the expensive, more desirable areas. (I’m talking single family homes: not condo’s) They were a sure bet to fall first and fast due to the overbuilding, high fees, bums peeing and defecating on the entrance to the buildings and other problems associated with living downtown. There are only a limited number of willing, qualified buyers to match the inventory problem and this along with the economy and a myriad of other problems will drive prices down a minimum of 50% in SD and SoCal.

[NotCranky]

I got lucky and called the big chunk. My opinions on the overall decline vary because I believe in nuanced opinions on things outside of my control and am still learning how this cycle will play out as the story unfolds. I wonder if that makes me a liar? I certainly don’t think I am in denial because I believe my property has as good of a chance of being the one hardest hit.

Some elements of the market are and will be getting hit by 60%. I think after all is said and done, county wide the median for detached and attached will go down half of what happens to the hardest hit segments of each. Privately held single vacant parcels of the custom home type will go down the least. I guess that puts my GUESS at 30%to 35% through the entire market except privately held lots which won’t go down much. I have no doubts that it is possible that it could be 50% or more…just not willing to believe that it is a forgone conclusion, yet.

[NotCranky]

I got lucky and called the big chunk. My opinions on the overall decline vary because I believe in nuanced opinions on things outside of my control and am still learning how this cycle will play out as the story unfolds. I wonder if that makes me a liar? I certainly don’t think I am in denial because I believe my property has as good of a chance of being the one hardest hit.

Some elements of the market are and will be getting hit by 60%. I think after all is said and done, county wide the median for detached and attached will go down half of what happens to the hardest hit segments of each. Privately held single vacant parcels of the custom home type will go down the least. I guess that puts my GUESS at 30%to 35% through the entire market except privately held lots which won’t go down much. I have no doubts that it is possible that it could be 50% or more…just not willing to believe that it is a forgone conclusion, yet.

[NotCranky]

I got lucky and called the big chunk. My opinions on the overall decline vary because I believe in nuanced opinions on things outside of my control and am still learning how this cycle will play out as the story unfolds. I wonder if that makes me a liar? I certainly don’t think I am in denial because I believe my property has as good of a chance of being the one hardest hit.

Some elements of the market are and will be getting hit by 60%. I think after all is said and done, county wide the median for detached and attached will go down half of what happens to the hardest hit segments of each. Privately held single vacant parcels of the custom home type will go down the least. I guess that puts my GUESS at 30%to 35% through the entire market except privately held lots which won’t go down much. I have no doubts that it is possible that it could be 50% or more…just not willing to believe that it is a forgone conclusion, yet.

[NotCranky]

I got lucky and called the big chunk. My opinions on the overall decline vary because I believe in nuanced opinions on things outside of my control and am still learning how this cycle will play out as the story unfolds. I wonder if that makes me a liar? I certainly don’t think I am in denial because I believe my property has as good of a chance of being the one hardest hit.

Some elements of the market are and will be getting hit by 60%. I think after all is said and done, county wide the median for detached and attached will go down half of what happens to the hardest hit segments of each. Privately held single vacant parcels of the custom home type will go down the least. I guess that puts my GUESS at 30%to 35% through the entire market except privately held lots which won’t go down much. I have no doubts that it is possible that it could be 50% or more…just not willing to believe that it is a forgone conclusion, yet.

[NotCranky]

I got lucky and called the big chunk. My opinions on the overall decline vary because I believe in nuanced opinions on things outside of my control and am still learning how this cycle will play out as the story unfolds. I wonder if that makes me a liar? I certainly don’t think I am in denial because I believe my property has as good of a chance of being the one hardest hit.

Some elements of the market are and will be getting hit by 60%. I think after all is said and done, county wide the median for detached and attached will go down half of what happens to the hardest hit segments of each. Privately held single vacant parcels of the custom home type will go down the least. I guess that puts my GUESS at 30%to 35% through the entire market except privately held lots which won’t go down much. I have no doubts that it is possible that it could be 50% or more…just not willing to believe that it is a forgone conclusion, yet.

[pemeliza]

There are so many wildcards right now it boggles my mind.

The biggest of which IMHO is interest rates. We have already shut out the subpar buyers with tighter lending standards. Substantially higher interest rates from here would be a death blow to the perma-bulls. A month ago I would have said that rates are going to go down to record lows and possibly reignite the market. They went down but couldn’t hold.

I don’t buy the ‘seller holdout’ theory. Entire communities were built at the peak of the market (e.g. Encinitas Ranch, La Costa Oaks to name a few) and are already underwater. Sure some folks can ride it out but whole communities?

I have more confidence in the built areas like La Jolla and Point Loma. Good deals will happen but they will be far in few between. I think the drops in the rock solid ‘built areas’ will max out at 30%.

In the newer areas we could see price drops approaching 50% especially if they are in the lesser school districts. Those with the best schools will fair better.

[pemeliza]

There are so many wildcards right now it boggles my mind.

The biggest of which IMHO is interest rates. We have already shut out the subpar buyers with tighter lending standards. Substantially higher interest rates from here would be a death blow to the perma-bulls. A month ago I would have said that rates are going to go down to record lows and possibly reignite the market. They went down but couldn’t hold.

I don’t buy the ‘seller holdout’ theory. Entire communities were built at the peak of the market (e.g. Encinitas Ranch, La Costa Oaks to name a few) and are already underwater. Sure some folks can ride it out but whole communities?

I have more confidence in the built areas like La Jolla and Point Loma. Good deals will happen but they will be far in few between. I think the drops in the rock solid ‘built areas’ will max out at 30%.

In the newer areas we could see price drops approaching 50% especially if they are in the lesser school districts. Those with the best schools will fair better.

[pemeliza]

There are so many wildcards right now it boggles my mind.

The biggest of which IMHO is interest rates. We have already shut out the subpar buyers with tighter lending standards. Substantially higher interest rates from here would be a death blow to the perma-bulls. A month ago I would have said that rates are going to go down to record lows and possibly reignite the market. They went down but couldn’t hold.

I don’t buy the ‘seller holdout’ theory. Entire communities were built at the peak of the market (e.g. Encinitas Ranch, La Costa Oaks to name a few) and are already underwater. Sure some folks can ride it out but whole communities?

I have more confidence in the built areas like La Jolla and Point Loma. Good deals will happen but they will be far in few between. I think the drops in the rock solid ‘built areas’ will max out at 30%.

In the newer areas we could see price drops approaching 50% especially if they are in the lesser school districts. Those with the best schools will fair better.

[pemeliza]

There are so many wildcards right now it boggles my mind.

The biggest of which IMHO is interest rates. We have already shut out the subpar buyers with tighter lending standards. Substantially higher interest rates from here would be a death blow to the perma-bulls. A month ago I would have said that rates are going to go down to record lows and possibly reignite the market. They went down but couldn’t hold.

I don’t buy the ‘seller holdout’ theory. Entire communities were built at the peak of the market (e.g. Encinitas Ranch, La Costa Oaks to name a few) and are already underwater. Sure some folks can ride it out but whole communities?

I have more confidence in the built areas like La Jolla and Point Loma. Good deals will happen but they will be far in few between. I think the drops in the rock solid ‘built areas’ will max out at 30%.

In the newer areas we could see price drops approaching 50% especially if they are in the lesser school districts. Those with the best schools will fair better.

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