Spring Housing Prediction

[NotCranky]

How about those Chargers?

[Fearful]

Bravo to sdrealtor for sticking his neck out. We shall see if his predictions are borne out.

At the risk of restating prior posts, the lower end will be substantially employment dependent. Tech jobs, and in particular new venture formation, may be heavily impacted in the coming months. Reference: Semiconductor equipment is the leading edge of semiconductors, and those firms have begun layoffs. The semiconductor layoffs are not too far behind. Regarding Qualcomm: While it is correct that people are not giving up their cell phones any time soon, they may also delay upgrades and so forth, impacting that consumption. Chip suppliers are pressured along with everyone else when margins are squeezed.

That segment of the market is perhaps more interest rate dependent; if in 2009 the competitive interest rates (e.g. t-bills) rise substantially, that would put a damper on the sales.

Regarding the large down payment crowd: The money destruction is proceeding but will go on for quite a while. Cash available for large down payments will recede, but gradually, not cataclysmically. This is a good thing, because if quick, we would all be sorry.

The high end is beyond uncertain. New venture formation, and IPOs, has contracted. Another wealth effect supporting the high end is simply residual bubble effects: people who pocketed hefty cash on the way up and do not want to leave SD. Specifically within Carmel Valley, if the Chinese economy remains sound, and the yuan is allowed to float up, there will be an influx of wealth into that area. If the Chinese economy suffers, and the yuan peg is maintained, that would hurt Carmel Valley in particular. If the Chinese buyers go away, look out below. In general, it seems that the >$800K tranche of houses is heavily supported by the high down payment crowd; bear in mind that that wealth is subject to ongoing destruction.

So many unknowns. Best of luck to you all.

[Fearful]

Bravo to sdrealtor for sticking his neck out. We shall see if his predictions are borne out.

At the risk of restating prior posts, the lower end will be substantially employment dependent. Tech jobs, and in particular new venture formation, may be heavily impacted in the coming months. Reference: Semiconductor equipment is the leading edge of semiconductors, and those firms have begun layoffs. The semiconductor layoffs are not too far behind. Regarding Qualcomm: While it is correct that people are not giving up their cell phones any time soon, they may also delay upgrades and so forth, impacting that consumption. Chip suppliers are pressured along with everyone else when margins are squeezed.

That segment of the market is perhaps more interest rate dependent; if in 2009 the competitive interest rates (e.g. t-bills) rise substantially, that would put a damper on the sales.

Regarding the large down payment crowd: The money destruction is proceeding but will go on for quite a while. Cash available for large down payments will recede, but gradually, not cataclysmically. This is a good thing, because if quick, we would all be sorry.

The high end is beyond uncertain. New venture formation, and IPOs, has contracted. Another wealth effect supporting the high end is simply residual bubble effects: people who pocketed hefty cash on the way up and do not want to leave SD. Specifically within Carmel Valley, if the Chinese economy remains sound, and the yuan is allowed to float up, there will be an influx of wealth into that area. If the Chinese economy suffers, and the yuan peg is maintained, that would hurt Carmel Valley in particular. If the Chinese buyers go away, look out below. In general, it seems that the >$800K tranche of houses is heavily supported by the high down payment crowd; bear in mind that that wealth is subject to ongoing destruction.

So many unknowns. Best of luck to you all.

[Fearful]

Bravo to sdrealtor for sticking his neck out. We shall see if his predictions are borne out.

At the risk of restating prior posts, the lower end will be substantially employment dependent. Tech jobs, and in particular new venture formation, may be heavily impacted in the coming months. Reference: Semiconductor equipment is the leading edge of semiconductors, and those firms have begun layoffs. The semiconductor layoffs are not too far behind. Regarding Qualcomm: While it is correct that people are not giving up their cell phones any time soon, they may also delay upgrades and so forth, impacting that consumption. Chip suppliers are pressured along with everyone else when margins are squeezed.

That segment of the market is perhaps more interest rate dependent; if in 2009 the competitive interest rates (e.g. t-bills) rise substantially, that would put a damper on the sales.

Regarding the large down payment crowd: The money destruction is proceeding but will go on for quite a while. Cash available for large down payments will recede, but gradually, not cataclysmically. This is a good thing, because if quick, we would all be sorry.

The high end is beyond uncertain. New venture formation, and IPOs, has contracted. Another wealth effect supporting the high end is simply residual bubble effects: people who pocketed hefty cash on the way up and do not want to leave SD. Specifically within Carmel Valley, if the Chinese economy remains sound, and the yuan is allowed to float up, there will be an influx of wealth into that area. If the Chinese economy suffers, and the yuan peg is maintained, that would hurt Carmel Valley in particular. If the Chinese buyers go away, look out below. In general, it seems that the >$800K tranche of houses is heavily supported by the high down payment crowd; bear in mind that that wealth is subject to ongoing destruction.

So many unknowns. Best of luck to you all.

[Fearful]

Bravo to sdrealtor for sticking his neck out. We shall see if his predictions are borne out.

At the risk of restating prior posts, the lower end will be substantially employment dependent. Tech jobs, and in particular new venture formation, may be heavily impacted in the coming months. Reference: Semiconductor equipment is the leading edge of semiconductors, and those firms have begun layoffs. The semiconductor layoffs are not too far behind. Regarding Qualcomm: While it is correct that people are not giving up their cell phones any time soon, they may also delay upgrades and so forth, impacting that consumption. Chip suppliers are pressured along with everyone else when margins are squeezed.

That segment of the market is perhaps more interest rate dependent; if in 2009 the competitive interest rates (e.g. t-bills) rise substantially, that would put a damper on the sales.

Regarding the large down payment crowd: The money destruction is proceeding but will go on for quite a while. Cash available for large down payments will recede, but gradually, not cataclysmically. This is a good thing, because if quick, we would all be sorry.

The high end is beyond uncertain. New venture formation, and IPOs, has contracted. Another wealth effect supporting the high end is simply residual bubble effects: people who pocketed hefty cash on the way up and do not want to leave SD. Specifically within Carmel Valley, if the Chinese economy remains sound, and the yuan is allowed to float up, there will be an influx of wealth into that area. If the Chinese economy suffers, and the yuan peg is maintained, that would hurt Carmel Valley in particular. If the Chinese buyers go away, look out below. In general, it seems that the >$800K tranche of houses is heavily supported by the high down payment crowd; bear in mind that that wealth is subject to ongoing destruction.

So many unknowns. Best of luck to you all.

[Fearful]

Bravo to sdrealtor for sticking his neck out. We shall see if his predictions are borne out.

At the risk of restating prior posts, the lower end will be substantially employment dependent. Tech jobs, and in particular new venture formation, may be heavily impacted in the coming months. Reference: Semiconductor equipment is the leading edge of semiconductors, and those firms have begun layoffs. The semiconductor layoffs are not too far behind. Regarding Qualcomm: While it is correct that people are not giving up their cell phones any time soon, they may also delay upgrades and so forth, impacting that consumption. Chip suppliers are pressured along with everyone else when margins are squeezed.

That segment of the market is perhaps more interest rate dependent; if in 2009 the competitive interest rates (e.g. t-bills) rise substantially, that would put a damper on the sales.

Regarding the large down payment crowd: The money destruction is proceeding but will go on for quite a while. Cash available for large down payments will recede, but gradually, not cataclysmically. This is a good thing, because if quick, we would all be sorry.

The high end is beyond uncertain. New venture formation, and IPOs, has contracted. Another wealth effect supporting the high end is simply residual bubble effects: people who pocketed hefty cash on the way up and do not want to leave SD. Specifically within Carmel Valley, if the Chinese economy remains sound, and the yuan is allowed to float up, there will be an influx of wealth into that area. If the Chinese economy suffers, and the yuan peg is maintained, that would hurt Carmel Valley in particular. If the Chinese buyers go away, look out below. In general, it seems that the >$800K tranche of houses is heavily supported by the high down payment crowd; bear in mind that that wealth is subject to ongoing destruction.

So many unknowns. Best of luck to you all.

[patientrenter]

Agree with Fearful: If you have $500,000 cash and $10 million in total assets, you just buy the house you like for $1 mill – $1.5 mill. If you have $500,000 cash and your assets are now worth $4 million, you may just buy a $700K – $1 mill house.

Even the wealthy with cash are affected, and their markets will go down more.

[patientrenter]

Agree with Fearful: If you have $500,000 cash and $10 million in total assets, you just buy the house you like for $1 mill – $1.5 mill. If you have $500,000 cash and your assets are now worth $4 million, you may just buy a $700K – $1 mill house.

Even the wealthy with cash are affected, and their markets will go down more.

[patientrenter]

Agree with Fearful: If you have $500,000 cash and $10 million in total assets, you just buy the house you like for $1 mill – $1.5 mill. If you have $500,000 cash and your assets are now worth $4 million, you may just buy a $700K – $1 mill house.

Even the wealthy with cash are affected, and their markets will go down more.

[patientrenter]

Agree with Fearful: If you have $500,000 cash and $10 million in total assets, you just buy the house you like for $1 mill – $1.5 mill. If you have $500,000 cash and your assets are now worth $4 million, you may just buy a $700K – $1 mill house.

Even the wealthy with cash are affected, and their markets will go down more.

[patientrenter]

Agree with Fearful: If you have $500,000 cash and $10 million in total assets, you just buy the house you like for $1 mill – $1.5 mill. If you have $500,000 cash and your assets are now worth $4 million, you may just buy a $700K – $1 mill house.

Even the wealthy with cash are affected, and their markets will go down more.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will Chime in here ,

I predict that if they announce that they are going to finally complete the freeway down the route the 76 now takes, places like fallbrook and Temecula will have a nice bounce from the current levels (or a rail line to corona station for that matter).
A real freeway (6 or more lanes) on the 76 route would put the SD Golden triangle area in fairly easy commute distance.

With the new administrations big push for public works projects who knows, could happen.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will Chime in here ,

I predict that if they announce that they are going to finally complete the freeway down the route the 76 now takes, places like fallbrook and Temecula will have a nice bounce from the current levels (or a rail line to corona station for that matter).
A real freeway (6 or more lanes) on the 76 route would put the SD Golden triangle area in fairly easy commute distance.

With the new administrations big push for public works projects who knows, could happen.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will Chime in here ,

I predict that if they announce that they are going to finally complete the freeway down the route the 76 now takes, places like fallbrook and Temecula will have a nice bounce from the current levels (or a rail line to corona station for that matter).
A real freeway (6 or more lanes) on the 76 route would put the SD Golden triangle area in fairly easy commute distance.

With the new administrations big push for public works projects who knows, could happen.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will Chime in here ,

I predict that if they announce that they are going to finally complete the freeway down the route the 76 now takes, places like fallbrook and Temecula will have a nice bounce from the current levels (or a rail line to corona station for that matter).
A real freeway (6 or more lanes) on the 76 route would put the SD Golden triangle area in fairly easy commute distance.

With the new administrations big push for public works projects who knows, could happen.

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