Spring Housing Prediction

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

OK I will Chime in here ,

I predict that if they announce that they are going to finally complete the freeway down the route the 76 now takes, places like fallbrook and Temecula will have a nice bounce from the current levels (or a rail line to corona station for that matter).
A real freeway (6 or more lanes) on the 76 route would put the SD Golden triangle area in fairly easy commute distance.

With the new administrations big push for public works projects who knows, could happen.

[sdrealtor]

Here’s the answer to the above question. Last year there were about 10 houses today there are only 5. Of the 5 houses, 3 are short sales that back up to very busy streets. Truth be told there is only 1 decent house in the bunch. In escrow there are 2 more (one short and one REO). I know tons of people that own these homes and for the most part they are either very well employed, have small mortgages, young kids in the school systems and plenty of savings or empty nesters/retirees with even better jobs and smaller mortgages.

So here’s my follow-up question. How are these houses going to drop another 10% between now and next Summer when no one wants to sell unless they have. Looking at the inventory, not many people have to and the ones that do tend to be in lousy locales. I stand by my prediction that if you can ever buy a really nice house in this category (i.e. 2400 sq ft or more, built after 1990 with 4BR+/3BA+ with a decent yard and a nice quiet location in the low 600’s you better grab it.

[sdrealtor]

Here’s the answer to the above question. Last year there were about 10 houses today there are only 5. Of the 5 houses, 3 are short sales that back up to very busy streets. Truth be told there is only 1 decent house in the bunch. In escrow there are 2 more (one short and one REO). I know tons of people that own these homes and for the most part they are either very well employed, have small mortgages, young kids in the school systems and plenty of savings or empty nesters/retirees with even better jobs and smaller mortgages.

So here’s my follow-up question. How are these houses going to drop another 10% between now and next Summer when no one wants to sell unless they have. Looking at the inventory, not many people have to and the ones that do tend to be in lousy locales. I stand by my prediction that if you can ever buy a really nice house in this category (i.e. 2400 sq ft or more, built after 1990 with 4BR+/3BA+ with a decent yard and a nice quiet location in the low 600’s you better grab it.

[sdrealtor]

Here’s the answer to the above question. Last year there were about 10 houses today there are only 5. Of the 5 houses, 3 are short sales that back up to very busy streets. Truth be told there is only 1 decent house in the bunch. In escrow there are 2 more (one short and one REO). I know tons of people that own these homes and for the most part they are either very well employed, have small mortgages, young kids in the school systems and plenty of savings or empty nesters/retirees with even better jobs and smaller mortgages.

So here’s my follow-up question. How are these houses going to drop another 10% between now and next Summer when no one wants to sell unless they have. Looking at the inventory, not many people have to and the ones that do tend to be in lousy locales. I stand by my prediction that if you can ever buy a really nice house in this category (i.e. 2400 sq ft or more, built after 1990 with 4BR+/3BA+ with a decent yard and a nice quiet location in the low 600’s you better grab it.

[sdrealtor]

Here’s the answer to the above question. Last year there were about 10 houses today there are only 5. Of the 5 houses, 3 are short sales that back up to very busy streets. Truth be told there is only 1 decent house in the bunch. In escrow there are 2 more (one short and one REO). I know tons of people that own these homes and for the most part they are either very well employed, have small mortgages, young kids in the school systems and plenty of savings or empty nesters/retirees with even better jobs and smaller mortgages.

So here’s my follow-up question. How are these houses going to drop another 10% between now and next Summer when no one wants to sell unless they have. Looking at the inventory, not many people have to and the ones that do tend to be in lousy locales. I stand by my prediction that if you can ever buy a really nice house in this category (i.e. 2400 sq ft or more, built after 1990 with 4BR+/3BA+ with a decent yard and a nice quiet location in the low 600’s you better grab it.

[sdrealtor]

Here’s the answer to the above question. Last year there were about 10 houses today there are only 5. Of the 5 houses, 3 are short sales that back up to very busy streets. Truth be told there is only 1 decent house in the bunch. In escrow there are 2 more (one short and one REO). I know tons of people that own these homes and for the most part they are either very well employed, have small mortgages, young kids in the school systems and plenty of savings or empty nesters/retirees with even better jobs and smaller mortgages.

So here’s my follow-up question. How are these houses going to drop another 10% between now and next Summer when no one wants to sell unless they have. Looking at the inventory, not many people have to and the ones that do tend to be in lousy locales. I stand by my prediction that if you can ever buy a really nice house in this category (i.e. 2400 sq ft or more, built after 1990 with 4BR+/3BA+ with a decent yard and a nice quiet location in the low 600’s you better grab it.

[stansd]

A number of you have commented on this already, but the magnitude of layoffs coming is sorely underestimated by your average lay person. I work in finance for a major tech company, and every lever at our disposal is being pulled right now. Travel down 40%, consulting 50%, overtime gone, layoffs in the pipeline, attrition replacement nonexistent, etc. I also know folks well placed at Qualcomm in finance working ridiculous hours, so I can say without question that they are feeling the pain (witness the recent earnings announcement as well).

The other thing folks forget is when you get into the 600k-800k price range, you are dealing with buyers whose income is highly variable: The lawyer whose billable hours are half what they were, the executive whose bonus is nonexistent, the salesman making half what he made last year: Not to mentione stock portfolios that are 40% of what they were, and options that are way underwater.

This will severely reduce the buyer pool, and the other wild card is interest rates, which could skyrocket if our foreign sugar daddies get nervous or decide they’d rather fund domestic consumption than American profligacy.

I just don’t see a bounce in the face of all that.

Stan

[stansd]

A number of you have commented on this already, but the magnitude of layoffs coming is sorely underestimated by your average lay person. I work in finance for a major tech company, and every lever at our disposal is being pulled right now. Travel down 40%, consulting 50%, overtime gone, layoffs in the pipeline, attrition replacement nonexistent, etc. I also know folks well placed at Qualcomm in finance working ridiculous hours, so I can say without question that they are feeling the pain (witness the recent earnings announcement as well).

The other thing folks forget is when you get into the 600k-800k price range, you are dealing with buyers whose income is highly variable: The lawyer whose billable hours are half what they were, the executive whose bonus is nonexistent, the salesman making half what he made last year: Not to mentione stock portfolios that are 40% of what they were, and options that are way underwater.

This will severely reduce the buyer pool, and the other wild card is interest rates, which could skyrocket if our foreign sugar daddies get nervous or decide they’d rather fund domestic consumption than American profligacy.

I just don’t see a bounce in the face of all that.

Stan

[stansd]

A number of you have commented on this already, but the magnitude of layoffs coming is sorely underestimated by your average lay person. I work in finance for a major tech company, and every lever at our disposal is being pulled right now. Travel down 40%, consulting 50%, overtime gone, layoffs in the pipeline, attrition replacement nonexistent, etc. I also know folks well placed at Qualcomm in finance working ridiculous hours, so I can say without question that they are feeling the pain (witness the recent earnings announcement as well).

The other thing folks forget is when you get into the 600k-800k price range, you are dealing with buyers whose income is highly variable: The lawyer whose billable hours are half what they were, the executive whose bonus is nonexistent, the salesman making half what he made last year: Not to mentione stock portfolios that are 40% of what they were, and options that are way underwater.

This will severely reduce the buyer pool, and the other wild card is interest rates, which could skyrocket if our foreign sugar daddies get nervous or decide they’d rather fund domestic consumption than American profligacy.

I just don’t see a bounce in the face of all that.

Stan

[stansd]

A number of you have commented on this already, but the magnitude of layoffs coming is sorely underestimated by your average lay person. I work in finance for a major tech company, and every lever at our disposal is being pulled right now. Travel down 40%, consulting 50%, overtime gone, layoffs in the pipeline, attrition replacement nonexistent, etc. I also know folks well placed at Qualcomm in finance working ridiculous hours, so I can say without question that they are feeling the pain (witness the recent earnings announcement as well).

The other thing folks forget is when you get into the 600k-800k price range, you are dealing with buyers whose income is highly variable: The lawyer whose billable hours are half what they were, the executive whose bonus is nonexistent, the salesman making half what he made last year: Not to mentione stock portfolios that are 40% of what they were, and options that are way underwater.

This will severely reduce the buyer pool, and the other wild card is interest rates, which could skyrocket if our foreign sugar daddies get nervous or decide they’d rather fund domestic consumption than American profligacy.

I just don’t see a bounce in the face of all that.

Stan

[stansd]

A number of you have commented on this already, but the magnitude of layoffs coming is sorely underestimated by your average lay person. I work in finance for a major tech company, and every lever at our disposal is being pulled right now. Travel down 40%, consulting 50%, overtime gone, layoffs in the pipeline, attrition replacement nonexistent, etc. I also know folks well placed at Qualcomm in finance working ridiculous hours, so I can say without question that they are feeling the pain (witness the recent earnings announcement as well).

The other thing folks forget is when you get into the 600k-800k price range, you are dealing with buyers whose income is highly variable: The lawyer whose billable hours are half what they were, the executive whose bonus is nonexistent, the salesman making half what he made last year: Not to mentione stock portfolios that are 40% of what they were, and options that are way underwater.

This will severely reduce the buyer pool, and the other wild card is interest rates, which could skyrocket if our foreign sugar daddies get nervous or decide they’d rather fund domestic consumption than American profligacy.

I just don’t see a bounce in the face of all that.

Stan

[sdrealtor]

Many of the type of folks Stan refers to live in my area. Most have lived here pre bubble. Their billable hours will be done, their commissions will be done, their stock portfolios will be down, their bonuses will be down. They will be hunkering down and not looking to move but rather to maintain the status quo. My hypothesis is that the vast majority will have no problem doing so.

[sdrealtor]

Many of the type of folks Stan refers to live in my area. Most have lived here pre bubble. Their billable hours will be done, their commissions will be done, their stock portfolios will be down, their bonuses will be down. They will be hunkering down and not looking to move but rather to maintain the status quo. My hypothesis is that the vast majority will have no problem doing so.

[sdrealtor]

Many of the type of folks Stan refers to live in my area. Most have lived here pre bubble. Their billable hours will be done, their commissions will be done, their stock portfolios will be down, their bonuses will be down. They will be hunkering down and not looking to move but rather to maintain the status quo. My hypothesis is that the vast majority will have no problem doing so.

[sdrealtor]

Many of the type of folks Stan refers to live in my area. Most have lived here pre bubble. Their billable hours will be done, their commissions will be done, their stock portfolios will be down, their bonuses will be down. They will be hunkering down and not looking to move but rather to maintain the status quo. My hypothesis is that the vast majority will have no problem doing so.

[Author]

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