Recession 2020

[FlyerInHi]

Trump’s trade war with China may hasten the next recession.

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t know, seems like China is running out of ammo (they really don’y buy much from us anyway, and right now it has been almost completely nothing for a year or so).

though higher prices for US consumers may hurt at least until we find new sources.

Anyway doing nothing is/was no longer an option.

I think eventually there will be a deal that benefits both.

[spdrun]

It would benefit Mother Earth if there was a full-on trade war and tariffs shot up to 200%. We don’t need more disposable Chinese junk being thrown in our landfills and taken to e-waste breakers in Africa to be burned for metals.

[SK in CV]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Thanks for the correction. I thought I hear something on CNBC. Aren’t they about to pause the tightening at least?[/quote]

Trump whined that he wanted more QE. (After whining that the 7 year bull market that he inherited was all a function of QE) The Fed laughed at him.

Since the end of the last QE, they’ve remained data dependent with a target interest rate. Nothing has changed.

[moneymaker]

Recession in 2019, one and done by the Fed, just like I said a long time ago! The tariffs are paid by us the consumer, not the Chinese, just buy less Chinese crap and we will all be good, more from Vietnam and elsewhere.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]

I think eventually there will be a deal that benefits both.[/quote]

Let’s look at the data so far….
– higher trade deficit with China
– loss of market share for US farmers.
– trump is contradicting himself when he want free market reforms in China, but he wants the state to commit to purchasing US products. How is that private enterprise? George Will wrote a nice piece on this.
– consensus of economists is that is bad policy.

How do you think the USA will win?

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=moneymaker]Recession in 2019, one and done by the Fed, just like I said a long time ago! The tariffs are paid by us the consumer, not the Chinese, just buy less Chinese crap and we will all be good, more from Vietnam and elsewhere.[/quote]

So far the trade deficit with China keeps going up, notwithstanding the tariffs.

And more stuff from Vietnam just means that US corporations will be buying more from Chinese manufacturers who setup shop in Vietnam. On turn, Vietnam will buy more stuff from China like Huawei networks, solar panels, etc…

[FlyerInHi]

Train freight traffic down.

Trump’s Economy Is Literally Coming Off The Rails
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/06/10/trumps-economy-is-literally-coming-off-the-rails/#29c3d3a0607d

Even though I believe we will have a recession, i recently bought 3 condos under $100k each.
The opportunity came up and life must go on. And even if I lose 10 to 15% in value during a recession, I make it back in rent in 1 year. Rents continue to rise.

[spdrun]

Stock market has been basically stagnant since 2018, retracing the same highs, then dropping. People were still buying property and stocks in late 2007, just before the 2008 partytime.

[gzz]

Flyer shows why we won’t have a recession in 2020.

Even as he talks gloomy, he’s a buyer, not a seller, of risk assets.

Same thing throughout the economy.

There are a million different economic stats, you can always find some that are bullish and bearish. Chicago Fed index of 85 economic indicators: growth picked up in May:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/06/chicago-fed-index-points-to-pickup-in.html

Meanwhile: the stock market hits a new high, unemployment lowest in US history.

[FlyerInHi]

And the labor participation is is the “lowest ever, you wouldn’t believe it!” as Trump would say. It the economy is so good then why are people not seeking jobs?
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm

I think there are other reasons for rising rents. Not enough building and continuing urbanization. The “socialists” are increasingly calling for rent controls.

[FlyerInHi]

The yield curve has been inverted for 1 quarter now. Reliable predictor of recession.

It’s pointing to a soft landing rather than a hard landing.

[FlyerInHi]

The trade war is not going well. China will not agree to any deal before the next US elections.

More signs pointing to recession 2020.

[The-Shoveler]

New home construction really seems to be picking up steam in SoCal, (new home signs going up everywhere I look).

IMO Trade deal will get done.

Stock Market Soars On China Tariff News; Apple Surges 5%

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/1e5b8aad-2b93-3ca2-990c-56c94647ac3c/stock-market-soars-on-china.html

[spdrun]

Holy shitballs! Stocks retraced yesterday’s losses.

Cool. More empty subdivisions to sell off when Great Recession II hits.

Looks like Tech Bubble 2.0 is deflating. The Great Unprofitable, Uber, just announced a hiring freeze…

https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-hiring-freeze-engineering-us-canada-through-year-2019-8

Yield curve still inverted. Well over a quarter now.

[Author]

Posts