Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Recession 2020
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FlyerInHi.
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July 26, 2018 at 10:37 PM #810461July 27, 2018 at 6:55 AM #810469
The-Shoveler
ParticipantThe China Tariffs as well as the EU Tariffs are still very much still in the negotiation phase.
U.S. Senate quietly votes to cut tariffs on hundreds of Chinese goods
The EU tariffs are likely to disappear completely on both sides which would be a win for the USA.
July 27, 2018 at 11:18 AM #810474FlyerInHi
Guest[quote=The-Shoveler]The China Tariffs as well as the EU Tariffs are still very much still in the negotiation phase.
U.S. Senate quietly votes to cut tariffs on hundreds of Chinese goods
The EU tariffs are likely to disappear completely on both sides which would be a win for the USA.[/quote]
That shows that Trump’s rhetoric is all for his base’s consumption and that China is winning the trade war.
I actually think that China is happy about the trade war, because they have been shifting production to places such as Vietnam anyway. So, even with tariffs, they will lose some US market share, but they can tell Vietnam “see, we are giving you business. Now let us build your metro systems, high speed rail, airports and seaports. Also, we can upgrade your telecom networks.”
Yes, eliminating tariffs with EU would be a win for USA because EU has been resisting for so long. I think the EU may blink on this one because they need USA in NATO.
We may lose with Canada. And I think we lost geopolitically with Mexico since they just elected a leftist president who is more anti US.
July 27, 2018 at 2:01 PM #810486ParticipantIt means things are still fluid.
No one would win a real trade war, especially not china in this case.
July 27, 2018 at 2:43 PM #810488
CoronitaParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]It means things are still fluid.
No one would win a real trade war, especially not china in this case.[/quote]
In the short term, I am hoping export of İntel Xeon server chips to China continues to be prohibited, as it was started during Obama era.
Good news for AMD that owns a Chinese company that manufactures Epyc server chips clones in China, specifically for the Chinese market, and revenue shares on those clones sold.
İf things stay the way they are, $19/share will look like a bargain for AMD share, and $49/share will look like a rip-off for Intel.
July 27, 2018 at 2:54 PM #810490Guest[quote=flu]
In the short term, I am hoping export of İntel Xeon server chips to China continues to be prohibited, as it was started during Obama era.
Good news for AMD that owns a Chinese company that manufactures Epyc server chips clones in China, specifically for the Chinese market, and revenue shares on those clones sold.
İf things stay the way they are, $19/share will look like a bargain for AMD share, and $49/share will look like a rip-off for Intel.[/quote]
Haha.
High tech is what China wants to buy but we won’t sell.
So how to close the trade gap? Agricultural products?
July 27, 2018 at 2:55 PM #810489Guest[quote=The-Shoveler]It means things are still fluid.
No one would win a real trade war, especially not china in this case.[/quote]
True. No one would win a trade war.
I meant the trade battle Trump started.
Sorry for us, but if Congress undoes the Trump China tariffs then they won.
July 27, 2018 at 4:51 PM #810493ParticipantWe may want those Agricultural products here.
They are already talking wheat shortage.
July 27, 2018 at 4:53 PM #810494spdrun
ParticipantGood — less wheat and corn = thinner Americans 😀
July 28, 2018 at 10:07 AM #810497henrysd
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
Haha.
High tech is what China wants to buy but we won’t sell.
So how to close the trade gap? Agricultural products?[/quote]
U.S. wants China to open their market to high quality and low priced foreign products/services.
Remember less than 200 years ago China was still world No 1 in term of GDP before the opium war, but they refused demand from west to open market. That was why Britain started the opium war and used opium to transfer wealth out of Qing Dynasty.July 28, 2018 at 12:39 PM #810498GuestWhat are high quality low priced western goods? Name some that together will add up to $300 billion just for US alone
July 28, 2018 at 4:09 PM #810500Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]What are high quality low priced western goods? Name some that together will add up to $300 billion just for US alone[/quote]
As as simple as baby formula, Chinese elites opt to avoid domestic brands and buy overseas products. Just watch those Chinese tourists in U.S., see how much they spend on cosmetics, fashion products etc in U.S. All those products are either much much higher priced or simply not available in China. The cause is Chinese government put too many restriction on foreign products to enter.
Not only U.S. is not happy with Chinese trade protection, EU is not happy either. But unlike Trump, the Europeans are trying to avoid direct confrontation with Beijing. They join China in condemning U.S. trade protection, but quietly refuse Chinese call to form alliance again U.S. on trade.July 28, 2018 at 6:58 PM #810501GuestHa? I don’t think China has any protection against baby formula. These products are simply more expensive in China because distribution and marketing make them beyond the reach of ordinary Chinese. It’s like European food in USA will never be priced competitive to American food, not because of protectionism but because of cost of importation.
If you read all the complaints again China, it’s not baby formula. To me the complaints about IP theft don’t stand because US companies willingly accept the transfers for market access. So they make the cost benefit calculations before entering the Chinese markets.
Sure, China can change laws to allow wholly owned foreign companies to operate in China without local partners.Super computers, military hardware, and other high tech, if sold to China would close the trade gap very quickly and create more American jobs. How many tons of baby formula for 1 airplane?
National security is sometimes not compatible with trade and capitalism. Trade makes sense when there are different comparative advantages. China is mass production. USA is high value tech and big industrial food. It just makes economic sense to exchange those products.
July 29, 2018 at 11:34 AM #810502ParticipantLOL Tell that to Cisco.
It’s actually more about government sponsored and owned industry getting subsidies and Currency Manipulation.
Even Obama recognized the corporate and defense espionage and Currency Manipulation.
July 30, 2018 at 11:03 AM #810508Guest[quote=The-Shoveler]LOL Tell that to Cisco.
It’s actually more about government sponsored and owned industry getting subsidies and Currency Manipulation.
Even Obama recognized the corporate and defense espionage and Currency Manipulation.[/quote]
I agree… but…
First Cisco — The chinese were able to reverse engineer and copy our tech. No different than the US copying the British textile industry. it just happens faster now. So, when you have a competitive advantage, you actually want to sell your products, monetize them, and keep innovating. But if you refuse to sell your products for fear of security, then your revenue base is much narrower.
What China does is all within WTO. We need background and objectivity to understand. Back when WTO was formed in 1995, after the fall of the Soviet Union, and Francis Fukuyama’s End of History, we (the West) were supremely confident of our business model. China joined in 2001. And remember, we designed WTO.
We thought that an American style business environment was the most efficient and competitive. And we were convinced that government planning only leads to failure.
When China built the Great Firewall, our luminaries (bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Sergey Brin etc.. ) predicted it would crumble and we would dominate. And of course, why not? We were so far ahead.
China, against all economic orthodoxy, took a chance on central planning and developed an alternative economic model that generated amazing growth and wealth.
Other countries that tried currency management (Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Zimbabwe) failed and only created a black market for US Dollars again proving our superiority. China turned out different.
So now that China’s economy is basically equal to ours, and they are innovating technologically, we are in panic mode. Because if we weren’t panicking, we would just sit back, relax, and watch China fail as we predicted.
So now we want to force China to abandon their Made in China 2025. They will not.
Personally, I believe that we need to spend less time blaming China and more time rethinking our business model and have an industrial policy. In USA, we subsidize big businesses just as much as China but in a haphazard way. Our businesses get $ billions from state and local governments. There is just no national policy to advance sectors such as renewal energy, transportation, etc..
It’s less on China and more on us to improve. But of course, the lazy ass deplorables don’t see that.
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