Recession 2020

[svelte]

[quote=flu] It’s a definitive easier to sell to the American public (we need to do this for public health safety reasons) than saying we need to get into a trade war again, now with the EU. Remember during the conference yesterday, Donald initially also included not only people but also goods/cargo from EU….something later.thst he retracted…I don’t call that an accidental slip. It seems more like a warning shot.[/quote]

This thought did cross my mind.

Another thought is that flights out of the UK are going to get very expensive as travelers in the EU can just go from the EU to the UK and THEN fly to the US.

Unless it is a worldwide travel ban to the US, people are just gonna go the country where they can still get to the US and fly.

[svelte]

[quote=svelte][quote=Hobie][quote=svelte]..didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. [/quote]

Wouldn’t that be just a 50/50 probability? Soothsayers have to be better than a coin toss.[/quote]

Since Aug 1929, we have had a recession in 186 out of the 1131 months. That 16.5% of the time.

You could argue that since he picked a twelve month period he raised his odds way above 16.5%, but I would argue back that those 186 months were in large clumps and not independent of each other as a coin toss would be.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States%5B/quote%5D

Or another way to look at it based on the link above.
Of the 71 years since 1929, the US has had a recession in 30 of those years— which is about 43% of those years.

Closer to 50% but not exactly there yet. he bet on the riskier option.

[Coronita]

The thing people are missing is before we didn’t have a president that would pull as many levers as possible to save his presidency. How many prior presidents were as confrontational with the Federal Reserve as this one? And there are a lot of levers that still can be pulled, for better or worse. Take a step back and look at what is important to Donald and this admin. You think they will sit idle and not do anything ? Maybe not right now, because well it’s still a good way from November. So the markets dip, people run scared and we don’t look that good for Q2…. Then pile on all the incentives , pill a bunch of levers at the end of Q2 so that Q3 looks like a recovery from this temporary virus setback (that was a “foreign virus” started by China ) , so this adminstration can take credit for saving the US economy from collapsing due to a “foreign virus” from China…in November. Those words weren’t accidental either. They were explicitly chosen. Wonder why…. One word comes to mind. Navarro…

[FlyerInHi]

Flu, you’re giving Donald too much credit for being strategic. He’s threatening and reactionary. He thinks he can scare people into his deals.

The person who’s strategic is Nancy Pelosi.
We’ll see.

[ltsddd]

DOW is back to 2017 level. Small-cap back to 2016’s.

The silver lining of all this is our commander in tweets is unlikely to have another opportunity to gloat about “new highs” with the stock market.

[ltsddd]

[quote=flu]so this adminstration can take credit for saving the US economy from collapsing due to a “foreign virus” from China…in November..[/quote]

If the American people are that gullible and stupid then we deserve what we’re getting and what’s coming.

[FlyerInHi]

I enjoyed Ray Dalio’s talk. We’re gonna see a depression greater than 10% GDP loss.

Ray Dalio’s the changing world order.
https://www.principles.com/the-changing-world-order/#chapter1

https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio?trk=author_mini-profile_title

[FlyerInHi]

The recession is in the bag although the government hasn’t announced it yet.
Now question is how quick and sustainable will the recovery be.

The fiscal hawks should the ones predicting a long, long period of stagnation as government spending and debt “crowd out” private investments.

Record government and corporate debt risks ‘tipping point’ after pandemic passes
The public and private sectors are setting red-ink highs to stave off a recession.

April 18, 2020 at 1:17 p.m. PDT
The United States is embarking on a rapid-fire experiment in borrowing without precedent, as the government and corporations take on trillions of dollars of debt to offset the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.
The federal government is on its way this year to spending $4 trillion more than it collects in revenue, analysts say, a budget deficit roughly twice as large relative to the economy as in any year since 1945.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/04/18/record-government-corporate-debt-risk-tipping-point-after-pandemic-passes/

[FlyerInHi]

Mark Zandi has been pretty accurate in his predictions.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/10/us-is-risking-a-second-coronavirus-wave-and-depression-mark-zandi.html

It may be the economy’s make or break moment.

Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics is getting increasingly worried states are taking a large gamble by reopening businesses too quickly.

He warns a spark in new coronavirus infections would send the economy further into tailspin — especially since there’s no vaccine.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=Coronita on March 12, 2020]you guys are way jumping the gun thinking 2020 a recession will happen. don’t you think Mr. Donald is going to do everything possible to save his 2nd term. What do you think it would take to do that? Get people to spend even if they aren’t credit worthy..And banks at this point need people who they can make more money off of. What better way than to invite the typical american consumer back into the game by giving them easy access to credit?

The other thing is..is this Europe travel ban really about the virus? or is it just a convenient excuse to get something back from the EU, like an attempt to strongarm countries like France and Germany into more favorable trade concessions? After all, why go out of the way to exempt the UK, when they have their own virus problems too if this really was only about the virus. And we know that Donald always appears to have an ax to grind with the EU. It’s a definitive easier to sell to the American public (we need to do this for public health safety reasons) than saying we need to get into a trade war again, now with the EU. Remember during the conference yesterday, Donald initially also included not only people but also goods/cargo from EU….something later.thst he retracted…I don’t call that an accidental slip. It seems more like a warning shot.[/quote]

I rest my case. The recession would have happened even without Covid. The trade war was “not helpful” at all.

Corona, I would love to enjoy some crow dishes at your new restaurant.

U.S. entered recession in February after end of longest expansion in history, NBER finds

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-entered-recession-in-march-after-end-of-longest-expansion-in-history-nber-finds-2020-06-08

[Coronita]

Hey we go again. Brian, stiring the pot and dumpster diving again. Hey look dude, I know you are fishing for attention and desperately trying to be right and accepted by someone.

I really don’t give a flying fck as the basic things that matter to me the most are what goes into my bottom line, which frankly has gone up not down:

1. My YTD return is 20%. Thanks to the covid scare, there were a lot of once in a lifetime good deals.
2. All my tenants continue to pay me fully each month, even June.
3. I’m still collecting more money for my furlow friday’s than working and have more free time than before.

So things are going pretty swell as I’m sure is the case for several of people in San Diego.

So, if you are fishing for ways to be right one time for a change…..Ok Boomer, if you say so, lol.

[FlyerInHi]

Hey, corona, I was writing about the economy.
There you go again claiming that you win no matter what.

[Author]

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