Recession 2020

[FlyerInHi]

What market updates? Where?

[FlyerInHi]

What market updates? Where?

I have posted everyday. No hiding.

Unlike you, I’m a not a mind reader I don’t pretend to know what people think. And I don’t make inferences to character.

Thank you for giving me the power to affect markets in the opposite direction.
BTW, I don’t connect the stock market to the economy for the purpose of broad trends. You are one who keeps on linking the 2. If were to post freight statistics, you would follow with something like “X stock is doing great, and so is my 401k, lol”.

[paulflorez]

[quote=flu][quote=FlyerInHi]Unlike you flu, i don’t post market updates as an argument for or against anything.
I discuss the broad trends that affect the economy.

When I created the thread the intention was to discuss the conditions that would less you a recession 2 years later.

I’m just calling you on your game. Market updates, anyone?

As far as Trump, you are the one making the connections to Trump.[/quote]

Bullshit you don’t. You posted updates anytime there was any news that fit your narrative even if it had nothing to do with your original narrative. The only reason why you haven’t posted any updates until now was there literally was NOTHING supporting your narrative, and you went into hiding because you were looking like an idiot because until a completely unrelated Coronavirus came into existence, you were itching for any excuse to post about Trump tanking the economy. So for pretty much most of last Q4 and beginning of January you disappeared and went into hiding. Because the trump destroying the economy thesis literally blew up in your face. And as I predicted, you came right back the moment anything would fit your narrative even if the narrative has changed. lol . And I guarantee the moment the markets no long fit your narrative again, you’ll go right back into hiding as you always do. That was that one thing you did that was comical, because you started talking about the economy and stock market despite knowing very well you have no game in equity markets….. like you do all the time with many things. But please do keep up the narrative… Because like I said, things tend to go the opposite of what you predict. lol[/quote]

OMG, grow up! Own that you obnoxiously mocked a 2020 recession instead of blaming everyone else. Either that or spare us the time wasted having to scroll past your comments by deleting your Piggington forum account.

[Anonymous]

He’s spot on. This recession came out of left field and ironically due to a virus from Brian’s beloved China. Until then things were humming along and few if any financial experts were calling for one this year.

[FlyerInHi]

“The recession came out of left field”. Did it? Are we in recession already?

I’m ok with the “moving target” as far as calling the recession.

[FlyerInHi]

There are always black swans that push us into recession, especially after such a long period without one.

The Fed has been preemptively fighting the next recession and Trump is planing a huge stimulus, something that’s not been done before. We are heading deep into state capitalism — so long the free markets.

[Anonymous]

Yes so many black swans everywhere…always

[paulflorez]

[quote=LiarInHI]He’s spot on. This recession came out of left field and ironically due to a virus from Brian’s beloved China. Until then things were humming along and few if any financial experts were calling for one this year.[/quote]

He’s not spot on anymore and now he’s disappeared from the thread the same exact way he’s accusing FlyerInHI of disappearing when there is good news.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi]All the signs point to a recession coming.
Since it takes 2 quarters of negative growth before a recession is declared, I’m thinking one will be announced sometimes in 2020. We will see….[/quote]

Well, I for one think you should be congratulated. We certainly seem to be on track for a recession in 2020.

You didn’t nail the reason, but then again who could?

It certainly could be that folks were looking for a reason to sell, thinking like you did that it was about time for a dip, and the coronavirus gave them the perfect excuse.

You went on record with a well-defined prediction and it appears you’re on track.

Well played, FIH.

[ltsddd]

It’s inevitable what followed is going to be economic downturn and layoffs. I am definitely leaning towards not buying a property this year as planned. I think the job market is going to tank next and the housing market will follow.

FIH & SPDRUN – good call.

[Anonymous]

Sorry but I missed the worldwide pandemic predictions. This isn’t an economic or political downturn it’s a pandemic. Carry on with your negativity and nonsense. They predicted none of this

[svelte]

[quote=LiarInHI]Sorry but I missed the worldwide pandemic predictions. This isn’t an economic or political downturn it’s a pandemic. Carry on with your negativity and nonsense. They predicted none of this[/quote]

Well flu, we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. FIH didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. He just predicted that something would cause a recession in 2020. And it is looking very likely he was right.

If we don’t hit recession territory this year, we’ll be very close to it. I think we’ll hit it.

[Hobie]

[quote=svelte]..didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. [/quote]

Wouldn’t that be just a 50/50 probability? Soothsayers have to be better than a coin toss.

[Coronita]

you guys are way jumping the gun thinking 2020 a recession will happen. don’t you think Mr. Donald is going to do everything possible to save his 2nd term. What do you think it would take to do that? Get people to spend even if they aren’t credit worthy..And banks at this point need people who they can make more money off of. What better way than to invite the typical american consumer back into the game by giving them easy access to credit?

The other thing is..is this Europe travel ban really about the virus? or is it just a convenient excuse to get something back from the EU, like an attempt to strongarm countries like France and Germany into more favorable trade concessions? After all, why go out of the way to exempt the UK, when they have their own virus problems too if this really was only about the virus. And we know that Donald always appears to have an ax to grind with the EU. It’s a definitive easier to sell to the American public (we need to do this for public health safety reasons) than saying we need to get into a trade war again, now with the EU. Remember during the conference yesterday, Donald initially also included not only people but also goods/cargo from EU….something later.thst he retracted…I don’t call that an accidental slip. It seems more like a warning shot.

[svelte]

[quote=Hobie][quote=svelte]..didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. [/quote]

Wouldn’t that be just a 50/50 probability? Soothsayers have to be better than a coin toss.[/quote]

Since Aug 1929, we have had a recession in 186 out of the 1131 months. That 16.5% of the time.

You could argue that since he picked a twelve month period he raised his odds way above 16.5%, but I would argue back that those 186 months were in large clumps and not independent of each other as a coin toss would be.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

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