Recession 2020

[Coronita]

Starbucks also beats…

Ford beats…

t-mobile beats

mattel beats

[carlsbadworker]

I guess that I am a contrarian after all because I didn’t see the signs that FlyerInHi was clearly seeing in July 2018.

The stock market was expensive at that time, but it got more expensive today and I am still executing my strategy of conservative market exposure bundled with minor holding of some “risky” stocks (that has been 35%+ YTD)

I guess at the end of the day, I would agree with scaredy’s comment. We mostly just project our inner belief into the outside world. I always don’t believe myself that much…therefore my investment strategy has always been prepared for shit to happen in either direction. It probably is easier and more lucrative just to blindly long, but I doubt that will help me sleep better at night.

[Coronita]

GDP 3.2%, beats expectations

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-1q-2019-first-print-191823923.html

The economy hasn’t collapsed under this adminstration, as was previously predicted.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flu]

The economy hasn’t collapsed under this adminstration, as was previously predicted.[/quote]

Who predicted?

2020 cyclical recession prediction is better the previous prediction of collapse due to stimulus spending in 2009.

The Trump tax cuts were stimulative and they worked. We shall see how long. Maybe 2021 or 2022 recession. It’s coming like it or not.

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t think it is necessarily inevitable.

It is “not” the FED’s mandate to have a recession every 5-10 or so years.

Would you say the same for China?

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I don’t think it is necessarily inevitable.

It is “not” the FED’s mandate to have a recession every 5-10 or so years.

Would you say the same for China?[/quote]

I agree. But our fundamental belief system is different from China.

I actually agree with China. Money and the economy are a giant engineering project that if engineered well can grow forever.

[Coronita]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]I don’t think it is necessarily inevitable.

It is “not” the FED’s mandate to have a recession every 5-10 or so years.

Would you say the same for China?[/quote]

I agree. But our fundamental belief system is different from China.

I actually agree with China. Money and the economy are a giant engineering project that if engineered well can grow forever.[/quote]

Brian just doesn’t like being flat out wrong and eating crow . .
he never showed an interest in recessions , economy, tech ,stocks, investments, until this administration.. Because he’s waiting for the opportunity to say “I told you so”..heh heh

[FlyerInHi]

Flu, who said anything about this administration? You did.

What this administration is doing will have long term effects on our economy, especially in relation to our power relationship with China and the Pacific Region. As we speak, China is holding the Belt and Road conference and we have nothing to compete with them.

The recession i am predicting has to do with the cyclical nature of the economy.

[FlyerInHi]

Shoveler, you are relying on the Fed to act again. In fact they are about to expand their balance sheet again. Do they know something we don’t?

[Coronita]

The-Shoveler.

Didn’t say this adminstration made one of the best decisions ever by Broadcom/Avago’s attempt to acquire Qualcomm and cut it up into pieces? Qualcomm is probably the only wireless telco company with a proven 5G solution that is in production. Not intel (they just pulled out), not Nvidia, not any other U.S. company.

Maybe MediaTek… Maybe Huawei….That’s it.

It would have been a huge mistake for this “crown jewel” to have been sold to a Broadcom. All all those haters, that were call complainng about a 50ish Qualcomm stock price… Ha! Time has told.. Meanwhile, Intel eating major crow today…

Intel’s vaporware….
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/25/18516830/intel-apple-qualcomm-surprise-settlement-pushed-exit-mobile-5g-modems
ha ha.,

Haters….wrong….again….

[FlyerInHi]

So, flu, government picking winners and losers worked. Bravo.

In the Broadcom/Qualcomm case the process and capitalism couldn’t trusted to work. It took an executive decision by the president himself.

We shall see how consumers will pay for the cost of 5G. As it is, we now pay some of the highest mobile rates in the world, when at one time we paid the lowest rates (during the 2G era).

[The-Shoveler]

delete

[FlyerInHi]

Oh oh, I may have to revise my recession prediction if Trump and the Democrats agree in a $2 trillion infrastructure plan.

The tax cut was an 18 month juice that’s about to wear off. But $2 trillion infrastructure plan would be a game changer. However, I doubt we can implement it fast like China. Kinda dumb for Democrats to give Trump a win, if you ask me.

Deficit spending as far as we can see….. Anyone predicting hyperinflation and dollar collapse? Ron Paul, anyone? Anyone?

[SK in CV]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Shoveler, you are relying on the Fed to act again. In fact they are about to expand their balance sheet again. Do they know something we don’t?[/quote]

The fed is NOT going to expand their balance sheet any time soon. Not a single open market committee member suggested anything like further expansion. They will continue data dependent contraction indefinitely.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=SK in CV][quote=FlyerInHi]Shoveler, you are relying on the Fed to act again. In fact they are about to expand their balance sheet again. Do they know something we don’t?[/quote]

The fed is NOT going to expand their balance sheet any time soon. Not a single open market committee member suggested anything like further expansion. They will continue data dependent contraction indefinitely.[/quote]

Thanks for the correction. I thought I hear something on CNBC. Aren’t they about to pause the tightening at least?

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