Piggington’s Evoloution-when will housing prices become the discussion again.

[scaredyclassic]

astrid…that is extremely insightful.

my mind is blown.

[Hobie]

friggn troll astrid. start your own site.

[zk]

[quote=Hobie]friggn troll astrid. start your own site.[/quote]

How is astrid a troll, Hobie?

[utcsox]

[quote=flu][quote=AN]flu, thanks. I come here once in awhile to see if there’s anything worthwhile to post about (i.e. anything other than politics).

Yes, MM is on fire. But so is almost everywhere else in SD, IMHO. A run down 2/2 1000 sq-ft but with canyon view is around $540k now. A 3/2 1100 sq-ft is going for low to mid $600k. That’s pretty crazy.It’s no longer a boring suburb it used to be. It’s close to all the tech jobs in Sorrento Valley, the banking jobs in UTC. Then there’s the rumor of Apple opening up shop in either SV or UTC. Google is already in SV, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’ll start to expand here. Then there’s AMZN’s new campus that should open soon in UTC. Food options are starting to creeping up to Convoy level, but with much better parking. Much more Asian family vibe, hence so many Asian markets. Not to mention the craft beer scene. Once 3Roots open, it’ll definitely attract the younger crowds. My kids’ class are definitely very diverse, unless you think all Asians are the same lol.[/quote]

Damn all those lizards in far flug areas[/quote]

I guess now we know Asians are not concerned living in housing that lack interior walls + infested with lizards!!

[Coronita]

[quote=utcsox]

I guess now we know Asians are not concerned living in housing that lack interior walls + infested with lizards!![/quote]

You got us all wrong utcsox. You see, while AN disappeared from piggington for some time, he and I were applying our natural born acumen of mathematics to derive a formula to calculate the approximate value of a SFH in Mira Mesa, adjusted for the extra variables that were previously unaccounted for in most standard estimations of MM SFH home prices….Our revised formula includes two critical variables:

walls removed and weekly lizard sightings ..

We so far came up with this formula:

P(SFH_MM)= SQFT * [ PPSF_AVG_MM) * 1/e^(w-w0) * (liz/52) ]

where
P(SFH_MM): the estimated price of a SFH in Mira Mesa
SQFT: is the square footage of that home
PPSF_AVG_MM: the average ppsf of a SFH in MM
w0: number of walls originally in the house
w: number of walls left in the house after remodeling
liz: total number of lizards spotted on premise within 52 weeks.

You see, the rational is very simple.
Too many walls = bad feng shui. Fewer walls = good feng shui.

Also, lizards are good luck. The translation of lizards means “avoid disaster”. So if you see a lizard each week, that’s a week you’ll likely avoid disaster. More lizards, the better your feng shui will be…

What the Gecko Lizard Emblem on Cars in China Mean

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=Astrid Rey][quote=temeculaguy]As an OG of this site I have dropped in every few months only to close the window in disgust to see what my once loved forum has become. I have different motives today than I did back then. I bought eleven years ago after the biggest bubble in my lifetime and I will always credit this place with how I managed to time the market. Now I’m curious as my children are now adults, college grads and in the workforce, I want to give them advice that is timely as far as purchases or renting goes.

But alas, the site is awash in liberal drivel, socialism, politics and trump derangement syndrome. What the hell happened? This place was the “red pill” to the main stream media circa 2006 and look at it now. To quote Bunk from the Wire “Makes me sick how far we done fell” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wmgghlEagA

So when does piggington become a forum for the economic punk rockers again, those who would never listen to the main stream media and want to beat the sheeple and the system. Or will it remain a place democratic socialists go when the Rachael Maddow show has a guest host?

I’ve also seen the treatment of some old friends by the rabid progressives and have been tempted to intervene, but wisdom prevents me from doing so because they need to age out of it. As the old saying goes, “if you are not a socialist by 20 you have no heart but if you are not a conservative by 40 you have no brain.” They need to age out of it and I will not convince them otherwise, however at some point someone has to declare “adult swim, everyone under 18, out of the pool.” Plus I hate politics and despise both sides and never put that much faith in another human.

BTW interesting history about that socialist quote, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24/heart-head/
there’s debate about who said it and what they said, but any of those credited and any of the versions still make the point.[/quote]

What made this site and others like it during the housing bubble fascinating to read was that it was not simply about economics and housing prices. It was really about group thinking and how so many people will behave irrationally when they are surrounded by the safety of others doing the same thing.

It is so ironic that temeculaguy has now revealed himself to be a stereotypical Trump follower. Trump and his followers are driven by the selfish but irrational psychology that created the real estate bubble.

People put blind faith in the idea that real estate would make them wealthy and that the price would always go up despite obvious evidence to the contrary. This site presented such contrary evidence clearly but the zealots refused to accept it. Those in the club that believed real estate would always go up were validated by the fact that it did go up in an unexpected way for many years. The cultists would point to the extreme price gains as “proof” that this time things are different and the old established rules of economics were wrong all along. It was a scam that worked for so many people that they refused to see it as a scam.

Trump’s victory in 2016 was a similar validation for people that believed in the scam that he was promoting. The polls said he would lose, but he won. His followers took that as proof that the mainstream institutions were no longer legitimate. It emboldened them to believe that they could challenge anything they did not like, regardless of actual evidence.

During the bubble, the charts and data Rich gave us represented the truth that so many refused to believe. Now in the phenomenon that is Trump the fact checkers that point out his constant and brazen lying provide the same service that this site did over a decade ago ago. But as before there are those that passionately refuse to believe plain evidence. It is more fun to believe the lie and bully the “naysayers” that speak the truth.

temeculaguy, you are the sheeple this time.[/quote]

That was very insightful, Astrid. My mind is blown also.

[temeculaguy]

Astrid, what was your ID before you changed it? Piggington has a unique feature called “track.” It shows you’ve been a member for 4 years and only posted on two threads. Not enough to perform an analysis on the history of piggington or of my politics unless you changed your identity and then the logical question is why did you change it?

But you blew flyer’s mind, what a feat. Blow ZK’s mind who may agree with you do but who is an intellectual but not as predictable as brian and you won’t be considered a troll if you can, until then you are.

If you want to look back I predicted Trump would win as the crowded field began but he wasn’t my pick. But that matters not as you see red and what you don’t like and that makes you predictable and the sheeple. I watch them and try to outmaneuver them. I have never participated actively in politics but merely use it as a data point to predict things.
Admittedly I am to blame for starting this threads with insults toward a particular ideology because I thought it was needed to get the crowd to focus and see the folly of their distraction. That is my fault and I accept the blame for that misstep. Part of me hopes you get the leader you so desperately want next time only to see it makes no difference and we will still be left with each other to navigate the waters on our own.

Now I’m distracted, but thanks to all for their advice, glad to see AN felt this was a safe space for a capatalist to return to.

Scenario one just firmed up their work location, near sorrento/torrey so Mira Mesa is equidistant from their two work sites. There’s a massive rental complex just off mira mesa blvd right next to the 15. Can FLU, AN or anyone else with familiarity with the area give advice of that as a good rental spot to gauge the area for a newcomer? They are not the ones relocating from SE Asia.

[Coronita]

AN can correct me since he’s the leading Mira Mesa guy, and I’m just a Mira Mesa apprentice (but hey, at least I’m not a LETDLITA of Mira Mesa!)

You’re talking about Casa Mira View off of Westview Parkway..

In general, imho, stay far away from corporate running large scale apartment complexes for the following reasons

1. Expensive
2. They don’t care
3. Hodgepodge of tenants that live there, some that end up being sketchy. Could end up your neighbor.

So I would avoid the following places (and you can confirm with reviews)
https://www.google.com/search?q=apartments+92126

1. Casa Mira View
2. IMT of Sorrento Valley (it’s not really in Sorrento Valley, it’s Mira Mesa, those liars!)
3. Sofi of Westview Parkway
4. Sofi Highlands
and the list goes on an on.

Unfortunately ,Mira Mesa housing supply is just awful whether you are trying to buy or rent.

The majority of the rentals available are overpriced corporate run apartments, because the turnover for privately owned condos are so low. And the ones that do turnover, tend to be landlords that try to milk every last penny out of tenants, someone you don’t want to rent from…

I would use Zillow to look for housing because lately Craigslist has become sketchy at best for finding rentals… Sketchy for the landlords looking for tenants, sketchy for tenants looking for a place to live. Zillow is so much more civilized. Thank you sdrealtor for that recommendation!

Some places that are decent are right around where the major corporate run housing is

Privately owned condos in Mira Mesa include
condos off of Aderman
condos off of Capricorn
condos off of Camino Ruiz

I would stay away from the condos east of Camino Ruiz to Black Mountain Road, but that’s just me

There are some townhomes in the Westview area off of Westview Parkway. I’ve never been a big fan of Westview, but some people like the convenience of being able to hop on the 15 easily. Plus some people that live here were successful in petitioning their kids to get into Scripps Ranch school, without paying for Scripps Ranch priced housing.

I like the community called Water Ridge right in Sorrento Valley, but it’s kinda removed away from the major shops and strips mall.
http://wateridgetownhomes.com/
Again, all these are individually owned.

There’s also a lot of nice condos on the other side of Mira Mesa, as AN mentioned, off of Calle Cristobal. This is on the border of Sorrento Valley and Mira Mesa (yes folks, if you live off of Calle Cristobal, it’s still Mira Mesa, not Sorrento Valley as some of you claim it is, because you still have a 92126 zip code, not 92121…not that it matters…to other people at least)

If they do work in Sorrento Valley, there’s also the option of living in UTC, were there is a lot more housing too…

Further north, there also will be a some more housing in Carmel Valley once One Paseo is built… It’s going to be overpriced, it’s ugly, it’s a beast, and traffic will be just awful, and probably filled with pretentious people with fake money and fake boobs.. But hey, welcome to the new part of Carmel Valley 🙁

One Paseo

[scaredyclassic]

I have the support of the police, the support of the military, the support of the Bikers for Trump – I have the tough people, but they don’t play it tough until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.” Trump

if obama said this shit….

something like… i have the support of black lives matter, the black youth, i have the tough people but they dont play it tough until it gets to a certain point and then it would very very very bad for any republicans spouting off.

i understand being a devils advocate contrarian or nihilist nothing matters anyway kind of guy but this is fucking wrong.

astrids point is good regardless of tg’s politics, just as a general application to trumplovers generally. subtract the ad hominem aspect and read again. astrids concept is intriguing.

[Astrid Rey]

[quote=temeculaguy]Astrid, what was your ID before you changed it? Piggington has a unique feature called “track.” It shows you’ve been a member for 4 years and only posted on two threads. Not enough to perform an analysis on the history of piggington or of my politics unless you changed your identity and then the logical question is why did you change it?

But you blew flyer’s mind, what a feat. Blow ZK’s mind who may agree with you do but who is an intellectual but not as predictable as brian and you won’t be considered a troll if you can, until then you are.

If you want to look back I predicted Trump would win as the crowded field began but he wasn’t my pick. But that matters not as you see red and what you don’t like and that makes you predictable and the sheeple. I watch them and try to outmaneuver them. I have never participated actively in politics but merely use it as a data point to predict things.
Admittedly I am to blame for starting this threads with insults toward a particular ideology because I thought it was needed to get the crowd to focus and see the folly of their distraction. That is my fault and I accept the blame for that misstep. Part of me hopes you get the leader you so desperately want next time only to see it makes no difference and we will still be left with each other to navigate the waters on our own.

Now I’m distracted, but thanks to all for their advice, glad to see AN felt this was a safe space for a capatalist to return to.

Scenario one just firmed up their work location, near sorrento/torrey so Mira Mesa is equidistant from their two work sites. There’s a massive rental complex just off mira mesa blvd right next to the 15. Can FLU, AN or anyone else with familiarity with the area give advice of that as a good rental spot to gauge the area for a newcomer? They are not the ones relocating from SE Asia.[/quote]

I did not have an ID when the real estate bubble was happening. I was only in high school when I started reading this site and others because my family was getting caught up in a real estate scam. Almost everyone in my family, aunts and uncles and adult cousins gave money to a scammer that said they were buying houses. The crooks became a part of our community and used the church to recruit their victims. I saw how they replaced the faith of my family in Christ with the faith that real estate was the answer to everything. I knew nothing about real estate but knew something was not right.

After everyone lost money there was so much blaming and it caused divisions in my family that last to this day. My parents no longer speak to some of my favorite aunts and uncles. We were all very close but the scam created so much shame and anger that has never healed.

The one thing I will never forget about that time is how there were two sides that grew further apart every day. There were uncles who believed in the scam and those who rejected it. It became so much more than just a difference of opinion and divided our family completely. It was the only thing the adults would talk about at family gatherings. And I remember how the uncles who believed most would mock and make fun of those who were not investing. One of them became especially mean spirited and would flaunt his so called wealth in front of his brothers. He became a bully. I see the same behavior in the Trump people when they mock others. Of course they were all wrong in the end.

For your post TG, insults were never needed. Your explanation is very weak. You insulted because it gives you a rush of good feelings. It is how the mind of a bully works.

For me your nickname of TG will now and forever stand for Trump’s Guy. You can try to take back your words but it is not convincing.

The real estate bubble was a cult. For my family it was even tied to our faith. Trump is also a cult. It is so obvious. It is not surprising that he also uses the church to recruit his victims.

I would like to try to see your point of view but you are not trying to see mine. And I have no sympathy for these monsters and their supporters.

https://www.pe.com/2014/01/21/ponzi-montecastro-sentenced-to-81-years-8-months-2/

I am married now and we are considering buying a house in Menifee or Temecula but are not sure it is a good time to buy. I thought I might ask advice here but now I am not so certain about the quality of the information. It seems that many of the smart people have lost their way.

[The-Shoveler]

P(SFH_MM)= SQFT * [ PPSF_AVG_MM) * 1/e^(w-w0) * (liz/52) ]

LOL
How about roadrunner’s

meep meep

See a lot of them around my place.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=Astrid Rey]
After everyone lost money there was so much blaming and it caused divisions in my family that last to this day. My parents no longer speak to some of my favorite aunts and uncles. We were all very close but the scam created so much shame and anger that has never healed.
[/quote]

Wow, Astrid, so young and so well spoken!

Here is Robert Reich’s take on Trump’s promises.

What your family suffered is called affinity fraud. I wonder how your uncles who believed most in the scams dealt with the lost.

With my friends I decided that for each pro Trump rant, I would give greater pushback. If they decide they don’t want to be friends anymore, then good riddance. If they dish it out, they should be able to take it. So far, I’ve “lost” 2 friends. Luckily have good genes and no blood family member is supporting Trump. Only 1 by marriage.

I had a friend who joined a life insurance scam that I could spot a mile away. I told her that is she did it, she would regret it and not have any friends left. Sure enough, the company scammed agents and investors.

[quote=Astrid Rey]
I am married now and we are considering buying a house in Menifee or Temecula but are not sure it is a good time to buy. I thought I might ask advice here but now I am not so certain about the quality of the information. It seems that many of the smart people have lost their way.[/quote]

Menifee and Temecula are bedroom communities. They will be affected more by the coming recession. Rent or buy something small and save your money. You are still young, so you have many business cycles to experience in your lifetime. Only buy after a recession has been announced.

[scaredyclassic]

pro trump rally at the temecula duck pond this a.m.

kinda small. definitely not a good looking bunch. skewed older and chunky. swilling large soft drinks which i guess pumps up the dental economy.

still with the hillary for prison signs which i mean come on, thats kinda goofy by now.
busy intersection. mild supportive honking.

i wonder how trunp improved things for them. at least i get a good tax cut. i do like that.

[an]

TG, I stop posting, not because I don’t feel safe. I’m not a snowflake. I just stop posting because I got to busy and arguing about politics online is a complete waste of time. No one will change their mind, so why bother.

I don’t think you should think about equidistance. I think you should think about equal time, due to traffic flow. In the morning, people go west on MM Blvd and east at night. So, if you live on the west end and work in RB, you can get there door-to-door in about 15 minutes (takes about 5 minutes to get across MM because people going the other way keep the lights green for you). From Camino Ruiz to SV/Torrey Pines would take about 15 minutes from the west side of MM. So, that’s where I think they should look. Between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz.

flu is right, those apartment complex is called Casa Mira View. They range from low $2k for a 1/1 to high $2k for a 3/2. They attract for young professionals who have the $ and want a nicer place. While the other condos through out MM is cheaper, but doesn’t have all the amenities like Casa Mira View does. Like bowling ally in house to activities. It’s also more convenient to get on the 15.

[temeculaguy]

AN, I get it and I agree. I did the same thing for many years. But now I am curious if there aren’t some localized bubbles, or perhaps just bulges. And both you and FLU gave some great advice. It is appreciated.

Astrid, thanks for sharing, even you don’t care to win my respect because I’ve earned your scarlet letter you got some street cred from the other readers. I remember that case very well and I am sorry that your family suffered so much. It’s not a big town, seemed everyone knew someone directly or indirectly who was affected. I also used that case as in an argument when someone was telling me “non violent” criminals shouldn’t be incarcerated. They hurt a lot of people, their punishment still never repaired the damage.

Flyer has a point, if there is a recession and it seems like we may be due for one as far as the calendar goes certain areas fall in price more than others. I’m not sure the stars will align again the same way they did last time. I also see the prices at about 2006 levels, which was way overpriced in 2006 but in 2019 I’m not so sure. Just borrow no more than about 3X your gross household income and it won’t matter if your value goes up or down if you can ride it out. The trouble with just starting out is that is difficult to time the market because if prices tank, then jobs, income and credit will too. Young couples need all three. A nice starter SFR in Tem/Mur can be had for 500k, some starters for less. In Menifee closer to 400k. If your household income is 150k gross, spending 400-500k isn’t nuts. You aren’t going to get a giant house or one on land or in the best neighborhood but when you are starting out it works and in a decade you move up when your income and equity move up. That has backfired on me in the past but waiting it out always solved the problem (with 06 as the exception).

Or use a rent valuation, if the cost of your rent is let’s say 2500 for an SFR, if you can buy it for 375 (150x) then do it, you are just fixing your rent. I think rents in my hood are about 3k and buying is like 600k so to me that’s too much, should be closer to 500 to buy. So I personally think it’s too high right now but not like it was in 06, it’s no double the true value. Also the tax cut hurt homeowners, especially in CA. I think the market may feel it moving forward and I think SALT will be reinstated in the future. My state income tax is over 10k, so my property taxes are essentially non deductible. If I didn’t already own I’d be slightly more hesitant to do so. I’m also less inclined to move up because moving makes my property taxes go up and the increase will not be deductible. Prices can be affected by a number of factors, tax deduction used to be a big factor for many. I’m not so sure that’s the case to the extent that it once was.

[Author]

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