Piggington’s Evoloution-when will housing prices become the discussion again.

[Coronita]

Again, I’ll make the argument that the Great Recession and real estate collapse had more to do with sketchy financing than high home prices. Where are the majority of the sketchy mortgages, like we had during the Great Recession? I don’t think there are many…

Second, I don’t understand why people feel San Diego would fall relatively more than other places, say Northern California or even L.A. San Diego’s strength seems to me a more diversified economy of various industries. Where as in Nor Cal, it’s much more concentrated specifically in one sector, and to a lesser extent, same could be said for L.A.

I’m not disagreeing their could be a recession or RE prices here in SD will stall and start to decline. But a big bang? Unlikely.

[phaster]

[quote=Astrid Rey][quote=temeculaguy]As an OG of this site I have dropped in every few months only to close the window in disgust to see what my once loved forum has become. I have different motives today than I did back then. I bought eleven years ago after the biggest bubble in my lifetime and I will always credit this place with how I managed to time the market. Now I’m curious as my children are now adults, college grads and in the workforce, I want to give them advice that is timely as far as purchases or renting goes.

But alas, the site is awash in liberal drivel, socialism, politics and trump derangement syndrome. What the hell happened? This place was the “red pill” to the main stream media circa 2006 and look at it now. To quote Bunk from the Wire “Makes me sick how far we done fell” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wmgghlEagA

So when does piggington become a forum for the economic punk rockers again, those who would never listen to the main stream media and want to beat the sheeple and the system. Or will it remain a place democratic socialists go when the Rachael Maddow show has a guest host?

I’ve also seen the treatment of some old friends by the rabid progressives and have been tempted to intervene, but wisdom prevents me from doing so because they need to age out of it. As the old saying goes, “if you are not a socialist by 20 you have no heart but if you are not a conservative by 40 you have no brain.” They need to age out of it and I will not convince them otherwise, however at some point someone has to declare “adult swim, everyone under 18, out of the pool.” Plus I hate politics and despise both sides and never put that much faith in another human.

BTW interesting history about that socialist quote, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24/heart-head/
there’s debate about who said it and what they said, but any of those credited and any of the versions still make the point.[/quote]

What made this site and others like it during the housing bubble fascinating to read was that it was not simply about economics and housing prices. It was really about group thinking and how so many people will behave irrationally when they are surrounded by the safety of others doing the same thing.

It is so ironic that temeculaguy has now revealed himself to be a stereotypical Trump follower. Trump and his followers are driven by the selfish but irrational psychology that created the real estate bubble.

People put blind faith in the idea that real estate would make them wealthy and that the price would always go up despite obvious evidence to the contrary.
[/quote]

since FlyerInHi brought up the subject of terrorism on another thread because of events in NZ,… one older comment caught my eye

[quote=cvmom]

Seems to me that people coming in from outside the country are really not the primary issue–the issue is people who are disenfranchised, not part of the community, don’t really see a future for themselves, and who want to get back at all of those who are on the other side of that divide. Those unhappy people can really come from anywhere, including internally. As long as there are people who don’t have hope, this danger is going to continue.

https://www.piggington.com/terrorism_0#comment-269660
[/quote]

FWIW what came to mind is Lord of the Flies a book focuses on a group of British boys stranded on an uninhabited island and their disastrous attempt to govern themselves

as I see things, for the most part there isn’t any adult “political” leadership addressing big financial issues head on, so what happens in reality is extreme political views that actually create big financial problems!

https://www.piggington.com/local_politicians_fully_baked#comment-283210

WRT local RE prices,…

being higher up on the economic food chain, skimming comments on this forum can be useful but one need to read between the lines,… for example this thread confirmed that for the time being having rental properties in the area is a good investment BUT one has to look eles where to see that prices are being bid up by “foreign” and so called “smart money”

http://www.TinyURL.com/2019sdre

which is comforting since I’m one of lucky ones who happens to have various RE holding(s) in my own portfolio

if I were starting out it would be difficult because of various economic headwinds, so don’t see any obvious low risk choices other than being prudent and don’t put your self in a positon of being overextended

[quote=temeculaguy]
I’m not sure the stars will align again the same way they did last time. I also see the prices at about 2006 levels, which was way overpriced in 2006 but in 2019 I’m not so sure. Just borrow no more than about 3X your gross household income and it won’t matter if your value goes up or down if you can ride it out. The trouble with just starting out is that is difficult to time the market because if prices tank, then jobs, income and credit will too. Young couples need all three.
[/quote]

[ltsddd]

[quote=Astrid Rey]
I am married now and we are considering buying a house in Menifee or Temecula but are not sure it is a good time to buy. I thought I might ask advice here but now I am not so certain about the quality of the information. It seems that many of the smart people have lost their way.[/quote]

I have a simple checklist that I use each time I am in the market for a PRIMARY residence – Do I have a need for it and can I afford it? Price direction after I bought really not matter much because it’s only paper gain/loss. Buy a house only if you intended to live in it long-term (10+ years).

[The-Shoveler]

IMO the housing market is still alive and starting to shake off the cold weather.

Nothing to see here right now.

[FlyerInHi]

I’m perfectly willing to change my mind especially on economics. For example show me where Ron Paul was correct and I’ll follow him. So far no inflation despite decades of borrowing. Wrong means you need to adapt and change.

The problems with conservatives is that they have rigid core beliefs that they won’t even live by. To me, the answer is not that there are fundamental laws of economics, because there are none since money is just a human construct that evolves as we see fit. It all depends on the situation at hand. Sometimes it’s better to let the markets be free, sometimes it’s much better to have government planning.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO the housing market is still alive and starting to shake off the cold weather.

Nothing to see here right now.[/quote]

Even is this were true, a young couple doesn’t need to over stretch to buy at a high.

Cyclical recessions (I’m talking cyclical recessions, not great recessions) always happen and price drops always happen. If one is young and one has the benefit of time, one is better off buying after a recession, not before.

[an]

Lol, this is exactly why I stop posting. TG, feel free to pm me if you want to get more insight in MM.

[ltsddd]

OP,
For the younger couple, I recommend they expand their list and look into the new Harmony Grove Village community in South/South-West Escondido.

[carlsbadworker]

TG, welcome back! I don’t know if you realize that your comment on piggington’s evolution is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If you, AN and many others who are more obsessed with objective data don’t visit this site, then naturally, it will be occupied by people who are more willing to share their opinions and force it onto others.

The reason that politics is of particular interests is that it is mostly opinions, aided by the news cycle.

Therefore, I disagree that it was due to the fact real estate market has become boring. You first left the site because you already got your house and many other followed after 08. If the data nerds are still here, surely we can discuss many other topics for financial market in general. You can clearly see that Rich has never ran out of topics to write in his investment blogs.

But if none of the Rich type analytical people are here, what do you expect?

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]TG, feel free to pm me if you want to get more insight in MM.[/quote]

+1…

[zk]

.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]IMO the housing market is still alive and starting to shake off the cold weather.

Nothing to see here right now.[/quote]

Even is this were true, a young couple doesn’t need to over stretch to buy at a high.

Cyclical recessions (I’m talking cyclical recessions, not great recessions) always happen and price drops always happen. If one is young and one has the benefit of time, one is better off buying after a recession, not before.[/quote]

What happens if a recession is still 5 or more years off?

Very rarely does a recession cause a big enough housing price drop to make it worth waiting IMO.

The 2007-8 recession was an outlier event not likely to be repeated.

[Coronita]

BrianSD thinks there’s a doom and gloom depression because the economy can’t possible do well if conservatards are running part of the government, and trying to rationalize it. Kinda similar to conservatards that thought the economy was going to hell with Obama.

[FlyerInHi]

We are 10 years into an expansion. We are due for a cyclical recession.
Brexit is about to happen and the consensus of economists is bad. Italy is in recession, Germany is about to enter recession, so Europe as a whole will soon enter recession. China is slowing.

Im saying at least a cyclical recession, I’m not even talking Great Recession.

Actually, according to fiscal hawks, we should have a Great, Great recession because of runaway spending. Suddenly the fiscal conservatives are nowhere to be found.

I didn’t say don’t buy. I advised Astrid to buy or rent something small and affordable and save her money, then buy something nicer after a recession is announced. She’s young, she can afford to wait and then buy and upgrade only during recessions.

According to Amy Chua, the tiger mom, impulse control is part of the Triple Package of successful people.

[FlyerInHi]

Carlsbadworker, data, ok…. what is the budget deficit like compared to a decade ago. What is the trade deficit?

As far a I can tell, the only consistent person with regard to data is phaster. And me, of course because I never claimed that x policies will result in economic downturns. It all depends on the situation. I do however believe that not choosing the right policies results in wealth forfeiture, like not passing an infrastructure bill after the recession. So now we don’t have shit, while in a mere 10 years China built the best high speed rail network in the world.

[Author]

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