Piggington’s Evoloution-when will housing prices become the discussion again.

[The-Shoveler]

Did not the California HSR start about 10 years ago?

Maybe we don’t “NEED” a HSP.

Maybe we need more metro and freight trains.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Did not the California HSR start about 10 years ago?

Maybe we don’t “NEED” a HSP.

Maybe we need more metro and freight trains.[/quote]

Whatever we needed we should have built it rather than letting fear of deficits hold us back. Back then borrowing costs were lower. And of course, growth is compounding so we lost a lot of national wealth because of misplaced ideology.

[Coronita]

Since it’s CNN, it can’t ever be biased (sarcasm)

“CNN Poll: 7 in 10 say economy in good shape — and Trump may reap the benefits”

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/18/politics/cnn-poll-trump-economy-tech/index.html

Sorry, that’s really disappointing news for you BrianSD. It must feel horrible to experience the feeling of a good econmoy an Trump era that is despised.

Oh, and…

[quote=FlyerInHi]We are 10 years into an expansion. We are due for a cyclical recession.
Brexit is about to happen and the consensus of economists is bad. Italy is in recession, Germany is about to enter recession, so Europe as a whole will soon enter recession. China is slowing.

Im saying at least a cyclical recession, I’m not even talking Great Recession.

Actually, according to fiscal hawks, we should have a Great, Great recession because of runaway spending. Suddenly the fiscal conservatives are nowhere to be found.

I didn’t say don’t buy. I advised Astrid to buy or rent something small and affordable and save her money, then buy something nicer after a recession is announced. She’s young, she can afford to wait and then buy and upgrade only during recessions.

According to Amy Chua, the tiger mom, impulse control is part of the Triple Package of successful people.[/quote]

Thanks for your response to my previous post, BrianSD, and formerly confirming that you really the same as FlyerInHi..

You did a pretty good job until now to not respond to your old handle, but gotcha!

You can now change your handle to the “TheRealBrianSD”, kinda like what Trump does with his Twitter handle, heh heh.

[FlyerInHi]

Nobody said that we are not in a good economy. We are.

Does it mean it’s time to buy a house at a high, like most Americans would buy the most the can afford? I know some Trump supporters who feel entitled to get the loans and appraisals they want/need, as if private companies are required to make them happy.

Look 2 years out. Why would a young couple with a lifetime ahead buy into a 10 year expansion? They could live with family, rent, or buy something small to tide them over. Then they have the opportunity to buy again after a recession has been announced. It’s not that hard — only buy after the news media confirms a recession, every 7, 10, or 15 year.

I know what some of you will say: a young family has a lifetime to amortize overpaying so in the end it won’t matter. Well, the point is not to make mistakes and take advantage of economic cycles. It’s not like Astrid has kids and desperate to get her kids in the right schools. Plus impulse control is good character building.

[temeculaguy]

Carlsbadworker, I never thought of that but you have a point about the self fulfilling prophecy. However, it could be a combination of your theory and partially a gut feeling among the old schoolers that left because they got what they wanted and that they also now feel something is afoot. I’ve gotten private messages from some of them so they still read, the just avoid entering the fray.

Brian, back in the day we heard from so many people that said R/E will never go down nominally because history told us so, be we saw we had strayed from history for a variety of reasons, mostly free money.

I’m not convinced a great recession or depression will happen again in my lifetime but I do see we are overdue for at least a mild recession. trouble is that may be a few years away and in the meantime SD seems to be slipping a little based on Rich’s most recent data. So maybe we are entering a few years of flat at least for RE prices, which We will be technically down when inflation is factored. But another poster said it best, buy your primary when it makes sense for you.

Still, I’m advising my brood to rent for a year, but that’s mostly because when you choose a new town to live in, you really should especially since we might have just hot the peak in a way. To the poster that mentioned Harmony Grove, that’s where I think Scenario #1 should buy. Rent, not so much. Here’s why, only rental on zillow is 3250 for 1600 sq ft, or 200 a square to rent. But I see a 2000 sq ft for 600 to buy. so its 300 a sq to buy, that’s a buy in my book for 200k family income or a 180 with a 20% down. They are 23 and going to pull 170-180 combined, but have lots of earning increase potential. In a year or two maybe they will be ready for it. But for now, after spending 5-6 years in school, knocking out post grad while accustomed to living cheap. A 2500 a month rental near MM will satisfy them, be in the middle of their workplaces and give them time to save and get used to managing real money. It’s hard to go from making 10 or 20k part time to 8 times that. Becoming a grown up takes some getting used to. They just aren’t there yet, but it will happen.

[Astrid Rey]

[quote=ltsdd][quote=Astrid Rey]
I am married now and we are considering buying a house in Menifee or Temecula but are not sure it is a good time to buy. I thought I might ask advice here but now I am not so certain about the quality of the information. It seems that many of the smart people have lost their way.[/quote]

I have a simple checklist that I use each time I am in the market for a PRIMARY residence – Do I have a need for it and can I afford it? Price direction after I bought really not matter much because it’s only paper gain/loss. Buy a house only if you intended to live in it long-term (10+ years).[/quote]

Thank you for the advice ltsdd and others. We have decided not to purchase now because we are already renting a nice enough house and do not think there is much upside to buy and possibly even some downside.

I think that Rich’s chart tells us that that prices cannot go up much. Also there is so much new construction that will increase supply. It looks familiar to the bubble days with all the building and now I wonder, who is going to buy all of these houses? There is a huge development off Butterfield Stage road that was empty for so long but now they are building again. I wonder when the mortgage scammers will start again. I would think that people have learned their lesson but who knows?

I don’t know what will happen with the economy in general but I don’t believe that polls in the news tell us anything. When 7 in 10 people think that the economy is good what does that really say? So many people were fooled before. It seems that maybe the smart thing is to believe the opposite of the majority. And now more than ever people want to believe their side is right and do not want to look at facts. People want to see those that they do not like to be wrong, even if it costs them money.

[phaster]

[quote=Astrid Rey]I don’t know what will happen with the economy in general but I don’t believe that polls in the news tell us anything. When 7 in 10 people think that the economy is good what does that really say? So many people were fooled before. It seems that maybe the smart thing is to believe the opposite of the majority. And now more than ever people want to believe their side is right and do not want to look at facts. People want to see those that they do not like to be wrong, even if it costs them money.[/quote]

polls were wrong WRT to trump and the 2016 election, and my gut feeing is too few are looking at the big “economic” picture or pondering the knock on effects,… yeah I know I’ve said that before BUT this thread was refreshing in that in that I did learn something I was not aware of, nor had thought about

[quote=flu]

…I would use Zillow to look for housing because lately Craigslist has become sketchy at best for finding rentals… Sketchy for the landlords looking for tenants, sketchy for tenants looking for a place to live. Zillow is so much more civilized. Thank you sdrealtor for that recommendation!

[/quote]

just out of shits and giggles, tried posting an apartment “studio” rental on zillow, and the result was a surprising number of cold calls from residential real estate agents, asking if I was interested in selling,… typically I get more than my fair share of calls from commercial property brokers like CBRE that are looking to broker and get commissions on 1031s, Triple Net Leases, Delaware Statutory Trust, and other investment strategies typically not associated w/ residential housing

WRT the OP comment

[quote=temeculaguy]

This place was the “red pill” to the main stream media circa 2006 and look at it now.

[/quote]

was not aware of this forum back then, but have to say its interesting in that this forum is one of the sources I use as a proxy to gauge what the somewhat economically/politically informed are thinking,… and sadly I’ve come to the conclusion that assessing economic risk and developing hedge strategies isn’t on the radar screen of most people (nor is recognizing the errors of basic math when managing a portfolio by politicians or the news media)

http://www.TinyURL.com/13thcheck

so I can only conclude that eventually the local economy is going to have a TSHTF moment which was sort of just reported on in connection w/ the US Supreme Court taking a pass on reviewing the battle over local pension reform

[quote]
Supreme Court won’t weigh in on pension battle

The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to weigh in on the battle over pension reform in the city of San Diego.

The decision leaves in place a California Supreme Court decision from last year that called pension reform into question and required a lower court to come up with a remedy. It could end up costing the city billions.

https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/supreme-court-wont-weigh-in-on-pension-battle
[/quote]

[bearishgurl]

I don’t visit here much anymore but, of course, yesterday we found out that the conclusion to City of SD’s very costly and lengthy litigation regarding City’s illegally-placed Prop B on its ballot a few years back will soon be coming to an end in favor of its affected employees so that thread needed another update.

Thanks for creating this thread, TG. If you don’t mind, I’ll use it for a mini-platform for my one simple question of two very frequent posters here (FlyerInHi/briansd1 and zk) who have largely been publicly lamenting to and amongst themselves for over 2.5 years now on the following thread (and others polluting the blogosphere), which I stopped reading l-o-o-ng ago because it made my eyes glaze over:

https://www.piggington.com/rightwing_media_destroying_our_country

********************************************************

brian, zk . . . have each of you accepted the results of the 2016 general election?

********************************************************

Disclaimer: I am currently a registered Independent. I was a Republican for one year and 11 months (4/16 to 3/18) in order to vote for Cruz (who promised to abolish the ACA his first day on the job) in CA’s closed primary but alas, he didn’t get the nomination. So I voted for Trump, who depended on the lame-brain Republican-led Congress to “repeal and replace” the ACA and they could not manage to get it done. I got disgusted and impatient with them and parted ways as I was (and am) a one-issue voter.

I have noticed recently that the ever expanding 2020 presidential candidate field includes the likes of Elizabeth Warren (who is proposing “Medicare for All”) and Kamala Harris (who is proposing to “do away” with health insurance carriers, lol …). I don’t agree with either of these policies.

However . . . if either one of these clowns wins the election (or any of their similarly-situated “brethren”) and is elected president in 2020, I will accept the results. This is what mature adults do after an election is held, the votes counted and the electoral votes duly awarded.

I recall that several here have judged me in the past for ostensibly not being “grateful” for obamacare when I was involuntarily forced onto it by the enactment of the ACA. Of course, none of those posters had ever walked in my shoes.

Regardless, I will soon be eligible for Medicare so obama(crap)care will no longer be my problem. I’ll be signing up for my Nationwide Medicare Part B/D plans while you worker bees out there may very well have your employer-provided healthplans taken away from you (under a “Harris” administration). As a result, you could be forced to deal with being age-ranked and thus gouged for monthly premiums due to being mixed into a giant “pool” of millions of your “brethren” who have never taken care of themselves and never will. Good luck with that.

My best advice to you all is to very carefully consider who you will vote for president in 2020 :=D

[zk]

[quote=bearishgurl]
zk . . . have…you accepted the results of the 2016 general election?

[/quote]

What do you mean by, “accepted the results?”

[outtamojo]

[quote=zk][quote=bearishgurl]
zk . . . have…you accepted the results of the 2016 general election?

[/quote]

What do you mean by, “accepted the results?”[/quote]

No zk your retort should be “have you accepted Obamacare yet?”

[zk]

[quote=outtamojo]

No zk your retort should be “have you accepted Obamacare yet?”[/quote]

D’oh!! I whiffed.

Good one.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=zk][quote=outtamojo]

No zk your retort should be “have you accepted Obamacare yet?”[/quote]

D’oh!! I whiffed.

Good one.[/quote]

Good one! Very bright outtamojo.

[phaster]

FWIW front page UT story

[quote]
Here’s what $250K can buy in the San Diego housing market

At $250,000, the price tag for a National City home is hard to beat. But it’s about the size of a studio apartment and falling apart.

Listed for sale on L Avenue is a 500-square-foot lot, with a 94-year-old house occupying 98 percent of it.

Depending on how you look at it, it is either the last gasp of a market that has overheated or a screaming deal in a region that has largely stopped building single-family homes.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/sd-fi-l-avenue-20190319-story.html
[/quote]

https://www.redfin.com/CA/National-City/1725-L-Ave-91950/home/5927828

[barnaby33]

As an OG of this site I have dropped in every few months only to close the window in disgust to see what my once loved forum has become. I have different motives today than I did back then. I bought eleven years ago after the biggest bubble in my lifetime and I will always credit this place with how I managed to time the market. Now I’m curious as my children are now adults, college grads and in the workforce, I want to give them advice that is timely as far as purchases or renting goes.

Nostalgia ain’t what it used to be. So you’ve been absent for almost a decade but now you want advice and you’re disgusted to find that the forum you stopped helping to maintain didn’t stay what you wanted it to in your absence. Sorry man, I feel for you, but that’s just weird.

To answer your question, housing will return to the forefront when we’re all contrarians again. Maybe never. Most of us took the knowledge we gained and profited from it and are now on the other side and whether we admit it or not are wedded to a different outlook. So we aren’t the avant garde jealous bitter renters we once were; full of piss and vinegar and stats showing how wrong housing prices are.

You want Piggington to be relevant again, pray for an activist Fed, or a recession, or both. Other than that I think, as do many others that we’re settling in to watch the paint dry.

Nice to hear from you though! Hugs!
Josh

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