Piggington’s Evoloution-when will housing prices become the discussion again.

[temeculaguy]

duplicate

[Coronita]

Well, to be fair who is front and center speaking these days…

AOC: we need to tax robot makers 90%

Warren: we need to break up Google, Facebook.

Warren: we need to break up Apple too

and the list goes on and on…

as a tech worker and as a business owner, this should be pretty alarming. it’s not any one particular thing.. It represents a complete lack of understanding and a gross overreach if these nutjobs actually were to win, no different than Trump’s ignorance.

these nutjobs are making the entire Democrat party look awful, particularly all the moderates that one could get behind.

AOC is a complete moron, the exact opposite of moron Trump. And this is the best both parties have to offer..
That’s just sad.

I for one am sick of the extremities coming out of both parties. Both are equally terrible in different ways. Rather than to make this country better, both extremities are fixated in assessing blame.

[zk]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Mea Culpa ZK, it was not my best work.
[/quote]
Kudos for recognizing and admitting. I do remember a whole lot of good work.

[quote=temeculaguy]
I did find what was once on the cutting edge of economics had become a much different place
[/quote]
The forum is obviously dominated by non-real estate topics. But Rich steadily keeps us in the know on real estate trends on the main page. In my opinion he is still, about 15 years after his data and analysis first helped me make good real estate decisions, the best and most unbiased source for such information. And the forum, while dominated by other topics, is still a place where you can ask real-estate questions and get some input from some pretty smart and knowledgeable people.

Not long after Rich started the forum, it had already started to take a turn away from real estate. There was also already some strife between posters. Rich asked me if I thought the forum was something he should keep (or maybe he just asked if I thought he should keep the “off topic” section; I don’t remember). Maybe he foresaw then what it has become now; he was hesitant to keep it. I don’t think he’s a fan of drama. I said that I thought he should keep it and, even if I knew then what I know now, I’d still have said yes. It’s a pretty interesting place that, in my opinion, is several notches above most internet forums as far as the level of conversation (a low bar, to be sure, but, still…several notches). Also, the forum is its own community. Which is kind of cool, if you ask me. (Even if it is complete with the drama and strife you find in basically any community.) Also, I think that knowing a little about the person who’s giving real estate advice helps you evaluate that advice, and this forum helps you know them.

Is the forum perfect? No. Would it be better if it was a bit less dominated by non-real estate stuff? Probably. Would it be less dominated by non-real estate stuff if there was another bubble like the last one and all but the tiniest number of the pundits were clueless about it? Almost certainly.

[quote=temeculaguy]

It is possible that real estate is accurately priced, there is no large scale conspiracy like there was in 06…
[/quote]

There doesn’t have to be a conspiracy for real estate to be inaccurately priced. There’s a cycle, and prices fairly steadily move back and forth between undervalued and overvalued.

[quote=temeculaguy]

However looking at the rent to purchase ratio, it still seems off to me in some places and renting looks better especially for young couples in the twenties whose careers have just begun and may take some twists, turns and location changes in the next few years.
[/quote]

I could easily be wrong, but I think the consensus is that compared to the mean (by any number of metrics), housing prices are a bit high (but nothing like the bubble of last decade), leaving the question to be, “how will they revert to the mean?” Of course that could be anything between a sudden drop (unlikely) and prices that continue to rise, but at a slower rate than inflation. Although there’s always a chance that there could be an even further disparity from the mean before reverting (which also seems unlikely at this point, although not as unlikely as a sudden drop, in my not-necessarily-all-that-informed opinion).
[quote=temeculaguy]

However that was not an idiotic quote.

[/quote]
For now, I’ll agree to disagree with you on that. I wanted to get this posted before I go to bed. But I have some thoughts on that, and I look forward to debating with you about it (if you’re into that sort of thing).

[temeculaguy]

Now that’s what I’m talking about, just ignore my replies on another thread but you broke out the D word and FLU was right my comments there and here were not directed towards you.

So I like to look at rent to price ratios as a time to purchase and we’ve seen them fluctuate over the past 10-15 years. It doesn’t look like a huge bubble but it looks misaligned but not by the amounts it once did.

I’ve got two specific real estate questions for different kids. Now that we’ve had our opening slap fight, my apologies, now let’s get down to business.

Scenario 1, low 20’s couple, one works inland N. County and had traditional M-F schedule, other one will/may be moved throughout the county every so often but won’t commute during peak hours. Take home pay combined, 8-12k a month, no kids and no immediate plans. RB, 4S, San Marcos, Poway, Penisquitos, Carmel Mtn, Scripps Ranch are all in play. Nice condos and little houses seem to rent for 2500-3000. Buying them seem to be 600k+ with the newer ones having higher taxes and mello roos. They like the newer ones.

Scenario 2, mid 20’s couple, no kids. Can’t give work location or income as they are relocating from Vietnam and will be arriving soon with capital, degrees and mastery of multiple languages. They have a strong desire to live in or near other Vietnamese speakers so as to not lose their skills. One of them also speaks Chinese. Both were English teachers for 3 years in Asia but teaching or language is not their degree nor what they will be doing for work once here, more of a hobby and a comfort to be near a community, not a necessity. She is Asian and fluent in English without an accent and he is a blond white kid who speaks, reads and writes Vietnamese which is fun to see in action. I’m at a loss where to direct them as they are not wanting to replicate where they were but would like to have some connection to people, cuisine and language of where they were. City heights/little saigon fits some of the list but not really, they are accustomed to either a more upscale or safer place without sounding too elitist. If someone is from there or has been there they will understand, they are district 1 people.

There you have it, a real estate question. I’m recommending they all rent for at least a year and based on what I’ve read thus far there’s no real danger of prices getting away from them in the next 12 months.

[scaredyclassic]

https://www.theschooloflife.com/thebookoflife/there-is-no-happily-ever-after/?fbclid=IwAR0inYJZAEG-sGAD3IBN3t6duZ1l82VDKOo1CqF4ZdK-cwYSceVS2t74luA

[Hobie]

Welcome back TG! For #2 Cbad>S.Oside>Encin. to explore. How about the OC? South Irvine, Huntington Beach.

Not to jack your thread too much, but you mentioned there is little to talk about re real estate. I think we could find a lot to talk about regarding investing in companies and real estate. Specifically, as mentioned the Norco, Eastvale area is going off for commercial buildings. Those future employees need a place to live. Maybe this will resurrect places like Adalanto. But throw in the traffic issues, especially the 91fwy and the 15 down the pass and it will swing the focus to places like Hemet, etc.

We do get some interesting new OT stuff, but it needs to be moderated when self moderation doesn’t work. ..and who has time for that chit.

Look forward to more of your witty stuff TG! Breath of smart, fresh air!

[The-Shoveler]

My Wife does not seem to have any problem finding people to speak Chinese with no matter where we go in SoCal, even TV.

There are several Vietnamese restaurants in TV as well as a good sized “mostly” Vietnamese super market.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flu]
I for one am sick of the extremities coming out of both parties. Both are equally terrible in different ways. Rather than to make this country better, both extremities are fixated in assessing blame.[/quote]

This is objectively false. You need to study political science a little.

Bill Clinton was center right who moved the democratic party to the right. And the Republicans moved to to extreme right. Trump is the Chief Executive. AOC is nowhere near the presidency. There is no equivalency.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO flu is right,

Show me a moderate Dem, then I think they can defeat Trump, keep throwing up extreme left candidates, Trump wins.

[FlyerInHi]

I have been to Vietnam several times.
District 1 people don’t even want to go 5km to new district 7.
Your friends should rent in North Park now and look for an infill development. Or buy something to remodel.
Shank and Bone in North Park is great restaurant. The owner designed the restaurant herself.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO flu is right,

Show me a moderate Dem, then I think they can defeat Trump, keep throwing up extreme left candidates, Trump wins.[/quote]

Ok Trump wins if you say so. But if you believe that, then republicans are more extreme. Don’t claim symmetry when there is none.

[zk]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Now that’s what I’m talking about, just ignore my replies on another thread but you broke out the D word and FLU was right my comments there and here were not directed towards you.
[/quote]
I’m not sure what the above means, but I would never ignore your replies. I didn’t see those comments until this morning, and I have plenty to say about them.
[quote=temeculaguy]
Now that we’ve had our opening slap fight, my apologies, now let’s get down to business.
[/quote]
Ok, I kinda wish I saw that before I responded on the other thread. But I really would love to hear what you have to say over there.
[quote=temeculaguy]

So I like to look at rent to price ratios as a time to purchase and we’ve seen them fluctuate over the past 10-15 years. It doesn’t look like a huge bubble but it looks misaligned but not by the amounts it once did.
[/quote]
Concur.
[quote=temeculaguy]

Scenario 1, low 20’s couple, one works inland N. County and had traditional M-F schedule, other one will/may be moved throughout the county every so often but won’t commute during peak hours. Take home pay combined, 8-12k a month, no kids and no immediate plans. RB, 4S, San Marcos, Poway, Penisquitos, Carmel Mtn, Scripps Ranch are all in play. Nice condos and little houses seem to rent for 2500-3000. Buying them seem to be 600k+ with the newer ones having higher taxes and mello roos. They like the newer ones.

Scenario 2, mid 20’s couple, no kids. Can’t give work location or income as they are relocating from Vietnam and will be arriving soon with capital, degrees and mastery of multiple languages. They have a strong desire to live in or near other Vietnamese speakers so as to not lose their skills. One of them also speaks Chinese. Both were English teachers for 3 years in Asia but teaching or language is not their degree nor what they will be doing for work once here, more of a hobby and a comfort to be near a community, not a necessity. She is Asian and fluent in English without an accent and he is a blond white kid who speaks, reads and writes Vietnamese which is fun to see in action. I’m at a loss where to direct them as they are not wanting to replicate where they were but would like to have some connection to people, cuisine and language of where they were. City heights/little saigon fits some of the list but not really, they are accustomed to either a more upscale or safer place without sounding too elitist. If someone is from there or has been there they will understand, they are district 1 people.

There you have it, a real estate question. I’m recommending they all rent for at least a year and based on what I’ve read thus far there’s no real danger of prices getting away from them in the next 12 months.
[/quote]

Totally concur that there’s no real danger of prices getting away from them in the next year.

I would inform them, if they’re not already aware, of the way that prices fluctuate within the year. The fact that in the spring there’s almost always a hot seller’s market (relative to the overall trend) and in the fall/winter it’s the opposite. (For example, if the trend is rising prices, they’ll rise faster in the spring and rise more slowly in the fall; if the trend is falling prices they’ll fall slower in the spring and faster in the fall. Or rise in spring and fall in fall. Or whatever.) If they’re not constrained by moving when it’s convenient for children’s school schedule or whatever, then they’ll generally find a looser market in the fall (although sometimes there might be fewer homes on the market). Also, being aware of this cycle might help to keep them from panicking if prices are rising fast in the spring. It might also encourage them to wait for fall if prices are flat or even falling during the spring.

I think renting is a great way to see if you like living in an area, too.

My wife has a few Vietnamese friends, and she’s going to ask if they know of any areas in SD where Vietnamese are concentrated. I don’t really think there are any. We’ll see.

It would be fascinating to hear the white kid speak Vietnamese. It is a wildly different sounding language, and I’ve never seen a white person speak more than the most rudimentary basics. I read somewhere that Vietnamese has 56 different vowel sounds. Which seems impossible until you start thinking of all the different vowel sounds you can make if you start taking into consideration how nasal they are or other things like that. Chinese is really hard to learn (I failed) but Vietnamese seems even harder.

[FlyerInHi]

Zk, I happen to know Vietnam and people in Vietnam whom I made friends with and friends of friends, etc….

For young people, convenience of location is very important. They don’t want to drive far away. From example, driving from Rancho Barnardo to Convoy is a deal breaker.

When you talk to your wife, mention that this is for District 1 people, not for non-district 1 people. There is a special culture to District 1 that is impossible to replicate in San Diego. For more upscale living near San Diego little Saigon you have talmadge, north park, Kensington. North park is the most walkable and hippest.

[temeculaguy]

In Scenario 2, I may have overstated the District 1 people thing. She grew up an hour outside of District 1 in the countryside,he grew up in Temecula so they are comfortable outside city centers and both like the new district 7 (as do I, district 7 is like 4S ranch or Del Sur, new but a little ways out from the center). For those who have never been there, district one is like Manhattan. They are totally aware there is no equivalent here. They are not chronic urbanites but have lived there for 7 and 3 years respectively so it’s not something ingrained. In that city which lacks subways with the population of NYC it can take 30 minutes to go just a few miles on a motorbike. Proximity is more important there and motorbikes makes driving less enjoyable, especially wearing face masks for pollution, no radio, conversation or phone calls, not to mention a different view of right of way and traffic signals. A 60 mile commute here is probably less taxing mentally than a three mile one there. They may even like Temecula which is where they will stay temporarily once they arrive.

And yes ZK, it is amazing to watch. I assure you it’s not a novelty or a few key phrases but perfect conversation which is a result of 3 years/16 hours a day of speaking/hearing it both in the home and at work. The wife and I recently spent three weeks there with them and it never got old watching people react once he began speaking. I never even tried, every word seems to have 10 different meanings if the tone is different. I pick up other key phrases in other languages fairly easily but Vietnamese and Chinese is on another level, I didn’t even try, I pointed a lot.

The UT has an article about SD having a very high level of price reductions, so perhaps a mild correction is afoot. I appreciate the insight on the seasonal fluctuations, that’s excellent advice and since both scenarios are childless, they should shop in the fall no matter which year.

[The-Shoveler]

For the time they are in Temecula

The Ranch 88 market on Ynez RD is a good sized Asian market, also has a decent restaurant, herb shop etc…

The Restaurant has Vietnamese and a variety of Asian food,

Kind of like Sam Woo it has a fast and a more formal dine in side.

[Author]

Posts