Piggington’s Evoloution-when will housing prices become the discussion again.

[FlyerInHi]

I don’t know if she’s been to America before, but If she grew up in the countryside, she’ll like Temecula. She will like the cleanliness and the newness. She might get bored later as she discovers American social life.

But if she were from an urban upper middle class urban family, she would find Temecula extremely inconvenient.

I have lots of Asian friends and they expect the USA to be modern and sleek. They would be disappointed with old houses such as ones in East San Diego. The first reaction would be “what kind of modern country is this?”

If they sold a condo in District 1, they should have the cash to buy in a nice new home downtown sd, Mission Hills, hillcrest, North Park, Civita in Mission valley, or even UTC or Mira Mesa which has become a tech/Asian neighborhood.
The new Meet Fresh cafe by HMart is so busy. Not worth the wait.

[The-Shoveler]

Delete

[no_such_reality]

TG, if your kids are thinking housing, the Elephant in the Room that doesn’t get talked about, schools.

Not the schools as in good/bad. But the general California situation with the schools and funding. Much like the unfunded pension issue, which is still 20-30 years out, IMHO, the schools are rapidly facing a crisis that starts hitting now.

Statewide, and particularly in the in-fill development mature areas, enrollment has been dropping for years. Even rapidly building out places like Irvine are basically flat and fighting for transfers. Because of the way funding lags on enrollment, the district’s this year are facing the first of three baked in years of cuts. Future enrollment projections indicate a trend that will continue for years. I suspect local schools will have a tumultuous 5 years.

On an overall housing standpoint, this doesn’t change much, however, on a local standpoint, this greatly increases the required diligence in understanding the School District plans for the assigned schools and requirements for transfer to desired schools.

It also, IMHO, greatly increases the relative value of schools that are locally zoned for the magnate/immmersion programs. Often the schools that are dwindling are revitalized into a immersion or magnate program. It also mandates a realistic evaluation of families tolerance/preference for private school or commute to desired school.

jm2c.

[phaster]

[quote=moneymaker]Like the Winston Churchill quote and bookmarked the site. Also bought post bubble, 10 years ago. So real estate is not on my priority list. Still fun to watch as my wife seems to be addicted to it. The stock market is also starting to get boring, Trump needs to spout off more often to shake things up, got about 30% cash waiting for something to happen. For lent I think I’ll become anti-commercial and try not to spend any more money than I need to.
[/quote]

slightly off the RE topic,… but since you mentioned it, back in a high school religion class had a discussion about what we were suppose to do during lent (i.e. the act of giving up something to practice self-discipline and remember the sacrifices Jesus made),… so shared I needed to rid myself of my habit of,… procrastination!

that was decades ago,… sadly I still have and should rid myself of a procrastination addiction?!

as for “local” RE prices,… for the most part they reflect supply and demand along w/ being a function of access to credit

for the past few years we see demand high and supply low,… hence as expected prices of existing san diego RE is being bid upward,… which also means decreased general affordability

http://www.TinyURL.com/2019sdre

BUT given access to credit isn’t as widespread as it was back in the sub-prime lending mania of 2003-2007,… there isn’t as much excitement discussing housing prices because there are fewer players and FWIW as I read the tea leaves we’re in an extended period of a more subtle greater fool credit bubble

[phaster]

[quote=flu]I’m still waiting for peak oil….

You know, that conviction that blew up in doomsday theorists face, royally…Funny no one likes to talk about it anymore… But hey, it’s a great folklore, right up there with the entire John Titor timer traveler folklore..

Damn, there were a heck of a lot more dinosaurs that decayed than peak oil theorists estimated….

ha ha ha

Scientists 1, Conspiracy Theorists 0[/quote]

sigh,… déjà vu

https://www.piggington.com/ot_bearishgurl_should_clean_her_act_or_go?page=3#comment-271254

[phaster]

[quote=spdrun]Wouldn’t we be better off if peak oil HAD hit 20 years ago and we were updating the nation’s electric grid to handle (say) 75% of vehicles being electric, electrifying freight lines, converting all oil heating systems, etc? Also, we’d have more clean, safe, and modern nuclear reactors as well as renewable power right now.

Cheap oil and gas are crutches that keep us from developing cleaner energy technologies.[/quote]

20 years ago (about the year 2000) CO2 levels were about 370ppm
https://blog.datawrapper.de/weekly-chart-carbon-dioxide/

currently its 410+ ppm
https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2

unfortunately even if there was a dramatic reduction in liquid fossil fuels (i.e. gas, diesel and JP4) due to crude extraction constraints,… CO2 levels would have and will continue upward (w/ various chaotic effects on the environment) because coal could be converted into a liquid fossil fuels via the Fischer–Tropsch process

basically we’re rushing in uncharted territory w/ unappreciated risks (by the public in general) where the interaction/feedback of economics/finance are not included in the calculus

https://interestingengineering.com/advanced-computational-model-reveals-radical-action-and-luck-needed-to-combat-climate-change

tick, tick, tick,…

[scaredyclassic]

im under the impression trump threatened dems physically with harm via cops military and bikers loyal to him.

he is a fucking human piece of shit.

[renterclint]

Amusing post, TG. I totally relate to your comment about returning to this website occasionally hoping to find some good discussion on housing, but not finding much. There were once some great discussions here, but I recall there were plenty of liberals posting even back then. Congrats on the great timing of your home purchase. I’m jealous of all you folks who were able to buy at a reasonable price. I’m currently saving-up to buy in north county coastal in a couple years when my youngest finishes up high school.

I might scrap my two-year purchase plan and just pull the trigger on this very unique beauty in Carslbad (link below). I can fulfill my child-hood firefighter dreams while achieving homeownership.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Carlsbad-CA/fsba,fsbo_lt/house_type/2085620347_zpid/3975_rid/3-_beds/0-850000_price/0-3298_mp/globalrelevanceex_sort/33.181633,-117.273259,33.126446,-117.360806_rect/13_zm/

[outtamojo]

But but we despise both sides…

[an]

[quote=zk]I don’t really think there are any.[/quote]
There are 2. City Heights and Mira Mesa. Linda Vista has some too.
[quote=zk]I read somewhere that Vietnamese has 56 different vowel sounds.[/quote]
There are 11 vowels and 5 accents. So, if you count the accents and how they change the sound of the vowels, then that’s correct.

[an]

[quote=temeculaguy]
Scenario 2, mid 20’s couple, no kids. Can’t give work location or income as they are relocating from Vietnam and will be arriving soon with capital, degrees and mastery of multiple languages. They have a strong desire to live in or near other Vietnamese speakers so as to not lose their skills. One of them also speaks Chinese. Both were English teachers for 3 years in Asia but teaching or language is not their degree nor what they will be doing for work once here, more of a hobby and a comfort to be near a community, not a necessity. She is Asian and fluent in English without an accent and he is a blond white kid who speaks, reads and writes Vietnamese which is fun to see in action. I’m at a loss where to direct them as they are not wanting to replicate where they were but would like to have some connection to people, cuisine and language of where they were. City heights/little saigon fits some of the list but not really, they are accustomed to either a more upscale or safer place without sounding too elitist. If someone is from there or has been there they will understand, they are district 1 people.[/quote]
Mira Mesa. That’s where the Vietnamese in San Diego who can afford to move out of City Heights move to. Now, if you’re talking 2nd and 3rd generation, then they’ll venture out to places like 4s and Del Sur, but being near family is quite important, so there are still quite a bit of 2nd and 3rd generation living in Mira Mesa. That’s why there are 2 Vietnamese market, 6+ Pho places, 3 non Pho noodle places, a bao place, 2 Viet-Cajon restaurants. Beyond Vietnamese food and restaurants, there’s a Korean market, a Filipino market, one 3 Ramen places (1 being one of the best in SD), etc. 85 degrees, etc. I can go on but you get my point. If they plan to have kids, their kids will fit right in.

If they like new and can afford 4S & Del Sur, they can also look at the newer homes/condos off Calle Cristobal and Camino Santa Fe. They’re about 2-5 years old. If they want to be a little further away, they can check out Sorrento Valley houses or Wateridge for townhouse.

If they want spanking new, they’re about to break ground on the 3Roots development. https://www.3rootssd.com/. Model should be available by the end of next year and fully built out in 2025.

[Coronita]

AN.. I miss you.. Where have you been? I’ve been holding the fort down…… help me!!!!!

Mira Mesa is on fire. It’s cool and hip…. unfortunately, MM is really expensive now too.

Townhomes starting in the low 5’s.
Starter SFH in the low 6’s

Lots of Asian shops now, a spillover of the type of businesses you use to find only off of Convoy.

[an]

flu, thanks. I come here once in awhile to see if there’s anything worthwhile to post about (i.e. anything other than politics).

Yes, MM is on fire. But so is almost everywhere else in SD, IMHO. A run down 2/2 1000 sq-ft but with canyon view is around $540k now. A 3/2 1100 sq-ft is going for low to mid $600k. That’s pretty crazy.It’s no longer a boring suburb it used to be. It’s close to all the tech jobs in Sorrento Valley, the banking jobs in UTC. Then there’s the rumor of Apple opening up shop in either SV or UTC. Google is already in SV, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’ll start to expand here. Then there’s AMZN’s new campus that should open soon in UTC. Food options are starting to creeping up to Convoy level, but with much better parking. Much more Asian family vibe, hence so many Asian markets. Not to mention the craft beer scene. Once 3Roots open, it’ll definitely attract the younger crowds. My kids’ class are definitely very diverse, unless you think all Asians are the same lol.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]flu, thanks. I come here once in awhile to see if there’s anything worthwhile to post about (i.e. anything other than politics).

Yes, MM is on fire. But so is almost everywhere else in SD, IMHO. A run down 2/2 1000 sq-ft but with canyon view is around $540k now. A 3/2 1100 sq-ft is going for low to mid $600k. That’s pretty crazy.It’s no longer a boring suburb it used to be. It’s close to all the tech jobs in Sorrento Valley, the banking jobs in UTC. Then there’s the rumor of Apple opening up shop in either SV or UTC. Google is already in SV, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’ll start to expand here. Then there’s AMZN’s new campus that should open soon in UTC. Food options are starting to creeping up to Convoy level, but with much better parking. Much more Asian family vibe, hence so many Asian markets. Not to mention the craft beer scene. Once 3Roots open, it’ll definitely attract the younger crowds. My kids’ class are definitely very diverse, unless you think all Asians are the same lol.[/quote]

Damn all those lizards in far flug areas

[Astrid Rey]

[quote=temeculaguy]As an OG of this site I have dropped in every few months only to close the window in disgust to see what my once loved forum has become. I have different motives today than I did back then. I bought eleven years ago after the biggest bubble in my lifetime and I will always credit this place with how I managed to time the market. Now I’m curious as my children are now adults, college grads and in the workforce, I want to give them advice that is timely as far as purchases or renting goes.

But alas, the site is awash in liberal drivel, socialism, politics and trump derangement syndrome. What the hell happened? This place was the “red pill” to the main stream media circa 2006 and look at it now. To quote Bunk from the Wire “Makes me sick how far we done fell” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wmgghlEagA

So when does piggington become a forum for the economic punk rockers again, those who would never listen to the main stream media and want to beat the sheeple and the system. Or will it remain a place democratic socialists go when the Rachael Maddow show has a guest host?

I’ve also seen the treatment of some old friends by the rabid progressives and have been tempted to intervene, but wisdom prevents me from doing so because they need to age out of it. As the old saying goes, “if you are not a socialist by 20 you have no heart but if you are not a conservative by 40 you have no brain.” They need to age out of it and I will not convince them otherwise, however at some point someone has to declare “adult swim, everyone under 18, out of the pool.” Plus I hate politics and despise both sides and never put that much faith in another human.

BTW interesting history about that socialist quote, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24/heart-head/
there’s debate about who said it and what they said, but any of those credited and any of the versions still make the point.[/quote]

What made this site and others like it during the housing bubble fascinating to read was that it was not simply about economics and housing prices. It was really about group thinking and how so many people will behave irrationally when they are surrounded by the safety of others doing the same thing.

It is so ironic that temeculaguy has now revealed himself to be a stereotypical Trump follower. Trump and his followers are driven by the selfish but irrational psychology that created the real estate bubble.

People put blind faith in the idea that real estate would make them wealthy and that the price would always go up despite obvious evidence to the contrary. This site presented such contrary evidence clearly but the zealots refused to accept it. Those in the club that believed real estate would always go up were validated by the fact that it did go up in an unexpected way for many years. The cultists would point to the extreme price gains as “proof” that this time things are different and the old established rules of economics were wrong all along. It was a scam that worked for so many people that they refused to see it as a scam.

Trump’s victory in 2016 was a similar validation for people that believed in the scam that he was promoting. The polls said he would lose, but he won. His followers took that as proof that the mainstream institutions were no longer legitimate. It emboldened them to believe that they could challenge anything they did not like, regardless of actual evidence.

During the bubble, the charts and data Rich gave us represented the truth that so many refused to believe. Now in the phenomenon that is Trump the fact checkers that point out his constant and brazen lying provide the same service that this site did over a decade ago ago. But as before there are those that passionately refuse to believe plain evidence. It is more fun to believe the lie and bully the “naysayers” that speak the truth.

temeculaguy, you are the sheeple this time.

[Author]

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