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October 3, 2013 at 9:10 AM #766114October 3, 2013 at 9:47 AM #766116no_such_realityParticipant
It depends, if it’s a car and not a cracker-box, $35K is much closer. IMHO, the Model-S as designed, should be a $35K car.
October 3, 2013 at 10:49 AM #766125CoronitaParticipant[quote=no_such_reality]So far, so good, only 1 in 10,000 bursting into flames after striking road debris…
Tesla shares fall after mysterious car fire and analyst downgrade
All snark aside, still great looking technology even if the Media is more infatuated with it than Apple and Jobs.[/quote]
Well cars catch fire for all sorts of reasons… Leaking hot oil from a turbo can catch fire too…
I think the reason why the fire got so big with the tesla was that once the fire started, people didn’t really know how to put it out or didn’t do it quickly enough. And then what happened was the Li-Ion batteries underwent thermal runaway in other cells ended up catching fire..That seems to explain what the fire crew was saying about how they extinguished a fire only to have it come right back…
FAA put a video about risks of Li-Ion laptop batteries on a plane and how to deal with them..
The irony is li-ion is what goes into boeing’s dreamliner too i think.
October 3, 2013 at 10:53 AM #766127FlyerInHiGuest[quote=The-Shoveler]If the live in the burb’s probably both,
diesel hybrid truck and a EV to just run around.
I don’t see the majority being condo owners for a long time.[/quote]
I remember not long ago that the Prius was poked fun at. Now it has a cool factor.
Tesla has increased the aspirational factor of EV many folds. As ER pointed out, his kids’ schoolmates love the car and treat them like rock stars as they exit. People will turn and look at EVs more than they look at bimmers.
Traditional auto enthusiasts will be critical. But those guys don’t really matter. They read, and research, and study, but they are tight with their money.
The auto market is aspiration driven. Public opinion has turned, and alternative energy is the future.
Now, you see a house with solar panels and you think “awesome.” You see programmable LED lights and you think “fantastic” Some people will cling to incandescent (maybe because they stocked up and have 100 years’ supply) but kids growing up will think “pathetic.”
October 3, 2013 at 11:25 AM #766129The-ShovelerParticipantYea Coolness counts but at these prices, it still will remain a niche market for the rather well off.
I don’t think it will go as main stream as say a low end BMW.most can afford 10K more for coolness, but not 30K – 40K.
October 3, 2013 at 2:08 PM #766138FlyerInHiGuestYeah. Tesla is like a higher fashion expensive brand. Down the ladder, you have the ready to wear cheaper stuff.
The others will make popular knockoffs. Then we end up with EVs for the masses.
I think people will give up some performance for coolness. The more tesla is successful, the higher the pent up demand for EVs.
November 7, 2013 at 9:25 AM #767669no_such_realityParticipantTesla still on fire.
Literally.
Tesla reports 3rd vehicle fire and other complaints. Shares slip another 9%.
At the rate Tesla’s are burning, if they were regular cars, I’d be seeing a vehicle fire every day on my commute to and from work.
November 8, 2013 at 5:57 AM #767680patbParticipantsay you have the 85 KWH.
It’s down at 1%you have 5 hours in the cheap bracket,
so you need to put in ( 85/5) or 17 KWH/Hour or 17 KW.
Now i would imagine the HPWC is hooked up to 2 Pole 220 Volt.
so P=IV, so 17,000/220 = 77amps. so your figures are correct.
if you have a 100 Amps breaker you are loading it at under 80% continous.
which is NEC load ratings.not a bad sizing and probably why he has a 100 amp breaker on his main panel.
The author notes he charges at 60 Miles of range/Hour. assume the Tesla is getting about 3.1 Miles/KWH, you need about 19 KW to power that consumption. a little less if he’s doing slightly better or the HPWC is running a little hotter, for a short period of time.
Now FWIW Tesla has these fast chargers on I-5, and they are 100 KW. I don’t think they are running at 350 Amps but they could be running close to 800 Volts, right up around the arc limit.
Now people usually arent
November 8, 2013 at 8:58 AM #767683patbParticipant[quote=AN
I wonder if they’ll put more battery in the Model X to greatly extend the range, since they have a lot more space to work with. Imagine a 6000lb Model X tank that can go 500 miles. I think I’ll be totally interested in that.
.[/quote]
To go 500 miles, you probably need a 150 KWH Battery pack. WIth head room for life cycle and protection from “Bricking”, you probably need some 220 KWH.
at $700/KWH, thats a 150K in Battery alone.
a $300/KWH, that’s a 70K battery, plus motors, car, etc. it’s probably a 120K vehicle.
Teslas strategy has been to aim for about 200 Miles range, then stick Superchargers around at nodes and to cut up 400 mile legs.
I have to say Tesla’s strategy has been apparently sound.
November 10, 2013 at 12:44 AM #767740anParticipant[quote=patb]To go 500 miles, you probably need a 150 KWH Battery pack. WIth head room for life cycle and protection from “Bricking”, you probably need some 220 KWH.
at $700/KWH, thats a 150K in Battery alone.
a $300/KWH, that’s a 70K battery, plus motors, car, etc. it’s probably a 120K vehicle.
Teslas strategy has been to aim for about 200 Miles range, then stick Superchargers around at nodes and to cut up 400 mile legs.
I have to say Tesla’s strategy has been apparently sound.[/quote]If they can get 300 miles from 85kWh from the Model S, then they only need 140kWh to get 500 miles. 220kWh battery would be an over kill.
But you do bring up a very good point, and that’s the fact that battery is expensive and supply is limited so far.
How can you say Tesla’s strategy is sound when it hasn’t been implemented yet. Also, it’s one thing to convince the to 1% to buy a halo toy. It’s another thing all together to convince your average buyers in the $30-40k range to buy something that’s is as limiting as EV in its current form. I personally thing FCV would be much more likely to replace ICE cars than EV is. I’m not sure about you, but when I do road trip, I like to drive at night and I don’t want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere for at least an hour to charge up my EV. At least w/ FCV, you can refuel in the same amount of time as gasoline. EV has its place, for those who don’t do road trips or those who have a second car to do road trip (300+ miles one, not to LA from SD and back).
Anyways, only time will tell whether Tesla’s strategy is sound or not. It’s way too early to tell.
November 10, 2013 at 12:44 AM #767741anParticipantdup
November 10, 2013 at 6:34 PM #767759joecParticipantWhat about the concern that replacing all these batteries for ALL these cars would be expensive and a total pain after 5 years?
Like how your cell phone or wireless headphones or pretty much anything won’t keep a charge anymore after a certain amount of time. It could cost 10k to replace the batteries on the Tesla.
That’s one of my biggest concerns with owning one of these EV vehicles, even the cheaper ones.
Even with costs coming down, it’s still so much more than the $50-$100 standard car bat.
November 11, 2013 at 10:50 AM #767771ocrenterParticipantNovember 15, 2013 at 10:04 PM #767989patbParticipant[quote=joec]What about the concern that replacing all these batteries for ALL these cars would be expensive and a total pain after 5 years?
Like how your cell phone or wireless headphones or pretty much anything won’t keep a charge anymore after a certain amount of time. It could cost 10k to replace the batteries on the Tesla.
That’s one of my biggest concerns with owning one of these EV vehicles, even the cheaper ones.
Even with costs coming down, it’s still so much more than the $50-$100 standard car bat.[/quote]
people said that about Hybrid cars too. It didn’t happen.
November 15, 2013 at 10:07 PM #767990patbParticipant[quote=AN][quote=patb]To go 500 miles, you probably need a 150 KWH Battery pack. WIth head room for life cycle and protection from “Bricking”, you probably need some 220 KWH.
at $700/KWH, thats a 150K in Battery alone.
a $300/KWH, that’s a 70K battery, plus motors, car, etc. it’s probably a 120K vehicle.
Teslas strategy has been to aim for about 200 Miles range, then stick Superchargers around at nodes and to cut up 400 mile legs.
I have to say Tesla’s strategy has been apparently sound.[/quote]If they can get 300 miles from 85kWh from the Model S, then they only need 140kWh to get 500 miles. 220kWh battery would be an over kill.
But you do bring up a very good point, and that’s the fact that battery is expensive and supply is limited so far.
How can you say Tesla’s strategy is sound when it hasn’t been implemented yet. Also, it’s one thing to convince the to 1% to buy a halo toy. It’s another thing all together to convince your average buyers in the $30-40k range to buy something that’s is as limiting as EV in its current form. I personally thing FCV would be much more likely to replace ICE cars than EV is. I’m not sure about you, but when I do road trip, I like to drive at night and I don’t want to be stuck in the middle of nowhere for at least an hour to charge up my EV. At least w/ FCV, you can refuel in the same amount of time as gasoline. EV has its place, for those who don’t do road trips or those who have a second car to do road trip (300+ miles one, not to LA from SD and back).
Anyways, only time will tell whether Tesla’s strategy is sound or not. It’s way too early to tell.[/quote]
Why don’t you like the Chevy Volt or BMW i3, i8?
Also Tesla’s strategy is rapid battery change.
BTW, even with a standard 100 KW Tesla Charger, in 15 minutes,
you know that will add in 75 miles of range. I don’t know how far you drive at night, but you just need enough range to go home. -
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