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November 19, 2013 at 4:06 AM #768150November 19, 2013 at 12:56 PM #768161earlyretirementParticipant
FYI. I got this email from Tesla just a few minutes ago:
November 18, 2013
The Mission of Tesla
By Elon Musk, Chairman, Product Architect & CEO
Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible. If we could have done that with our first product, we would have, but that was simply impossible to achieve for a startup company that had never built a car and that had one technology iteration and no economies of scale. Our first product was going to be expensive no matter what it looked like, so we decided to build a sports car, as that seemed like it had the best chance of being competitive with its gasoline alternatives.
I suspected that this could be misinterpreted as Tesla believing that there was a shortage of sports cars for rich people, so I described the three step “master plan” for getting to compelling and affordable electric vehicles in my first blog piece about our company. This was unfortunately almost entirely ignored.
In order to get to that end goal, big leaps in technology are required, which naturally invites a high level of scrutiny. That is fair, as new technology should be held to a higher standard than what has come before. However, there should also be some reasonable limit to how high such a standard should be, and we believe that this has been vastly exceeded in recent media coverage.
How Does the Tesla Model S Fire Risk Compare to Gasoline Cars?
Since the Model S went into production last year, there have been more than a quarter million gasoline car fires in the United States alone, resulting in over 400 deaths and approximately 1,200 serious injuries (extrapolating 2012 NFPA data). However, the three Model S fires, which only occurred after very high-speed collisions and caused no serious injuries or deaths, received more national headlines than all 250,000+ gasoline fires combined. The media coverage of Model S fires vs. gasoline car fires is disproportionate by several orders of magnitude, despite the latter actually being far more deadly.
Reading the headlines, it is therefore easy to assume that the Tesla Model S and perhaps electric cars in general have a greater propensity to catch fire than gasoline cars when nothing could be further from the truth.
Journalists with a deep knowledge of the car industry, such as the news editor of Automotive News, understand and attempt to rebut this notion, but they have been drowned out by an onslaught of popular and financial media seeking to make a sensation out of something that a simple Google search would reveal to be false. I would also like to express appreciation for the investigative journalists who took the time to research and write an accurate article.
The degree to which this is outrageous is described well in the above-mentioned Automotive News article. There are now substantially more than the 19,000 Model S vehicles on the road that were reported in our Q3 shareholder letter for an average of one fire per at least 6,333 cars, compared to the rate for gasoline vehicles of one fire per 1,350 cars. By this metric, you are more than four and a half times more likely to experience a fire in a gasoline car than a Model S! Considering the odds in the absolute, you are more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime than experience even a non-injurious fire in a Tesla.
Those metrics tell only part of the story. The far more deadly nature of a gasoline car fire deserves to be re-emphasized. Since the Model S went into production mid last year, there have been over 400 deaths and 1,200 serious injuries in the United States alone due to gasoline car fires, compared to zero deaths and zero injuries due to Tesla fires anywhere in the world.
There is a real, physical reason for this: a gasoline tank has 10 times more combustion energy than our battery pack. Moreover, the Model S battery pack also has internal firewalls between the 16 modules and a firewall between the battery pack and passenger compartment. This effectively limits the fire energy to a few percent that of a gasoline car and is the reason why Dr. Shibayama was able to retrieve his pens and papers from the glove compartment completely untouched after the recent fire (caused by a high speed impact with a tow hitch). It is also why arsonists tend to favor gasoline. Trying to set the side of a building on fire with a battery pack is far less effective.
What About Safety Overall?
Our primary concern is not for the safety of the vehicle, which can easily be replaced, but for the safety of our customers and the families they entrust to our cars. Based on the Model S track record so far, you have a zero percent chance of being hurt in an accident resulting in a battery fire, but what about other types of accidents? Despite multiple high-speed accidents, there have been no deaths or serious injuries in a Model S of any kind ever. Of course, at some point, the law of large numbers dictates that this, too, will change, but the record is long enough already for us to be extremely proud of this achievement. This is why the Model S achieved the lowest probability of injury of any car ever tested by the US government. The probability of injury is the most accurate statistical figure of merit, showing clearly that the Model S is safer in an accident than any other vehicle without exception. It is literally impossible for another car to have a better safety track record, as it would have to possess mystical powers of healing.
Further Actions
While we believe the evidence is clear that there is no safer car on the road than the Model S, we are taking three specific actions.
First, we have rolled out an over-the-air update to the air suspension that will result in greater ground clearance at highway speeds. To be clear, this is about reducing the chances of underbody impact damage, not improving safety. The theoretical probability of a fire injury is already vanishingly small and the actual number to date is zero. Another software update expected in January will give the driver direct control of the air suspension ride height transitions.
Second, we have requested that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration conduct a full investigation as soon as possible into the fire incidents. While we think it is highly unlikely, if something is discovered that would result in a material improvement in occupant fire safety, we will immediately apply that change to new cars and offer it as a free retrofit to all existing cars. Given that the incidence of fires in the Model S is far lower than combustion cars and that there have been no resulting injuries, this did not at first seem like a good use of NHTSA’s time compared to the hundreds of gasoline fire deaths per year that warrant their attention. However, there is a larger issue at stake: if a false perception about the safety of electric cars is allowed to linger, it will delay the advent of sustainable transport and increase the risk of global climate change, with potentially disastrous consequences worldwide. That cannot be allowed to happen.
Third, to reinforce how strongly we feel about the low risk of fire in our cars, we will be amending our warranty policy to cover damage due to a fire, even if due to driver error. Unless a Model S owner actively tries to destroy the car, they are covered. Our goal here is to eliminate any concern about the cost of such an event and ensure that over time the Model S has the lowest insurance cost of any car at our price point. Either our belief in the safety of our car is correct and this is a minor cost or we are wrong, in which case the right thing is for Tesla to bear the cost rather than the car buyer.
All of these actions are taken in order to make clear the confidence we have in our product and to eliminate any misperceptions regarding the integrity of our technology and the safety of our cars.
November 19, 2013 at 1:41 PM #768163The-ShovelerParticipantHybrid’s will rule the day I think.
I really hope his dream comes true but I think cheap Pure EV for the masses are a long way off.
Same for Fuel-Cell-V, its just way too expensive to get reliable cars that can be driven all day/night long, Parked less then 5 hours and do the same thing the next day (would need to get to less than 25K to hit the mass market IMO).
100 Miles is nothing when your trying to shop and get stuff done.
3-5 dollar gas is going to be around a very long time as well IMO.November 19, 2013 at 3:39 PM #768165anParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]Hybrid’s will rule the day I think.
I really hope his dream comes true but I think cheap Pure EV for the masses are a long way off.
Same for Fuel-Cell-V, its just way too expensive to get reliable cars that can be driven all day/night long, Parked less then 5 hours and do the same thing the next day (would need to get to less than 25K to hit the mass market IMO).
100 Miles is nothing when your trying to shop and get stuff done.
3-5 dollar gas is going to be around a very long time as well IMO.[/quote]I agree that FCV is not cheap today, but why do you think it can’t be parked <5 hrs. and drive again the next day? AFAIK, FCV can be refueled in 5 minutes or less, just like gasoline today.November 19, 2013 at 5:44 PM #768169The-ShovelerParticipantI really hope Fuel-Cell-V’s (and even pure EV’s) become cheap, I just have little faith that they will, the tech is always perpetually 5 years away, it never seems to come to fruition (been like that for at least 15 years – think Ballard Power), meanwhile 50 MPG Hybrid’s are here today and cheap today. (some under 20K)..
November 21, 2013 at 1:28 AM #768256CA renterParticipantThanks for posting that e-mail, ER. Very good points on his part.
November 21, 2013 at 8:46 AM #768260HobieParticipant[quote=The-Shoveler]I really hope Fuel-Cell-V’s (and even pure EV’s) become cheap, I just have little faith that they will, the tech is always perpetually 5 years away, it never seems to come to fruition (been like that for at least 15 years – think Ballard Power), meanwhile 50 MPG Hybrid’s are here today and cheap today. (some under 20K)..[/quote]
So true. I still have a Ballard play and kick myself as they are just going in circles. Still have hope for fuel cells at every home and business. Using natural gas that is already plumbed in seems like a easy adoption. But we just wait.
While initially enthused with fuel cell for autos and charging them again with natural gas at home, I’ve had a change of mind as I’m not so sure we can trust the masses with connecting high pressure natural gas lines. Even with interlocks, venting, quickcouplers, etc. Cable for EV, fine. But the risk of gas leaks, read liability, are huge.
Still pullin’ for diesel or diesel/electric.
November 21, 2013 at 11:19 AM #768268afx114ParticipantTesla’s Model S Receives ‘The Highest Owner-Satisfaction Score Consumer Reports Has Seen In Years’
“Owners of the Tesla Model S gave it the highest owner-satisfaction score Consumer Reports has seen in years: 99 out of 100,” the magazine said.
November 21, 2013 at 2:43 PM #768271earlyretirementParticipant[quote=afx114]Tesla’s Model S Receives ‘The Highest Owner-Satisfaction Score Consumer Reports Has Seen In Years’
“Owners of the Tesla Model S gave it the highest owner-satisfaction score Consumer Reports has seen in years: 99 out of 100,” the magazine said.
[/quote]
[quote=CA renter]Thanks for posting that e-mail, ER. Very good points on his part.[/quote]
No problem at all CAR.
And absolutely I agree with the customer satisfaction survey. This is easily the best car (and most fun to drive) that I’ve ever had.
Also, the customer service is incredible! Case in point, I was out of town for an international business trip. I couldn’t tell my wife not to drive the car as she loves driving it as much as I do.
But when I came back home I noticed the bottom rocker panel was bulging out.
I was figuring it would cost a small fortune to fix. I emailed the Tesla service center and asked them how much it would be to fix it. It looked like maybe she backed out of a parking lot space that might have had a speed bump. She swears she didn’t hear anything but it had to be something like that.
Well, imagine my surprise when I get to the service center and they tell me they will fix it for free. They say as a valued customer they would be happy to fix it complementary. I go back and see them and I can see that they completely took it off and put it back on. I’m not sure if they put a brand new one on or not but it’s perfect good as new.
They did it all while I waited. It took about 1.5 hours. The kicker is he asked if I had time for a detail and they washed my car inside and out. Good as new. As well as a courtesy inspection of everything and even updated to the newest firmware release.
My cost? $0.00.
The customer service is incredible based on my experiences so far. I’m looking forward to getting my Model X once it is ready probably in late 2014 or early 2015.
November 21, 2013 at 2:50 PM #768274CoronitaParticipant[quote=earlyretirement][quote=afx114]Tesla’s Model S Receives ‘The Highest Owner-Satisfaction Score Consumer Reports Has Seen In Years’
“Owners of the Tesla Model S gave it the highest owner-satisfaction score Consumer Reports has seen in years: 99 out of 100,” the magazine said.
[/quote]
[quote=CA renter]Thanks for posting that e-mail, ER. Very good points on his part.[/quote]
No problem at all CAR.
And absolutely I agree with the customer satisfaction survey. This is easily the best car (and most fun to drive) that I’ve ever had.
Also, the customer service is incredible! Case in point, I was out of town for an international business trip. I couldn’t tell my wife not to drive the car as she loves driving it as much as I do.
But when I came back home I noticed the bottom rocker panel was bulging out.
I was figuring it would cost a small fortune to fix. I emailed the Tesla service center and asked them how much it would be to fix it. It looked like maybe she backed out of a parking lot space that might have had a speed bump. She swears she didn’t hear anything but it had to be something like that.
Well, imagine my surprise when I get to the service center and they tell me they will fix it for free. They say as a valued customer they would be happy to fix it complementary. I go back and see them and I can see that they completely took it off and put it back on. I’m not sure if they put a brand new one on or not but it’s perfect good as new.
They did it all while I waited. It took about 1.5 hours. The kicker is he asked if I had time for a detail and they washed my car inside and out. Good as new. As well as a courtesy inspection of everything and even updated to the newest firmware release.
My cost? $0.00.
The customer service is incredible based on my experiences so far. I’m looking forward to getting my Model X once it is ready probably in late 2014 or early 2015.[/quote]
Note to self… If ER needs car repair, offer to do it for him because what he expects should cost him money is normally free under warranty 🙂
ER, someone need to reset expectations for you, so I’ll go ahead and do it…
If you spend more than $60k+ for a new car, you shouldn’t have to pay anything more for things like this. It’s not specific to Tesla. It applies to just about any other car out there…Spending close to a $100k or over, you should expect concierge service….Except maybe BMW, in which case your mileage may vary depending on what stealership you go to…
Also,…For future reference…Best way to avoid this sort of thing in the future is simple. Buy your wife a matching car….
November 21, 2013 at 4:55 PM #768275anParticipant[quote=flu]Note to self… If ER needs car repair, offer to do it for him because what he expects should cost him money is normally free under warranty 🙂
ER, someone need to reset expectations for you, so I’ll go ahead and do it…
If you spend more than $60k+ for a new car, you shouldn’t have to pay anything more for things like this. It’s not specific to Tesla. It applies to just about any other car out there…Spending close to a $100k or over, you should expect concierge service….Except maybe BMW, in which case your mileage may vary depending on what stealership you go to…
Also,…For future reference…Best way to avoid this sort of thing in the future is simple. Buy your wife a matching car….[/quote]
Totally agree. Both Infiniti and Acura gives loaners for services taking longer than 1 hr. Huyndai takes service to the next level and actually come to you with an Equus and pick up your Equus for service. So you NEVER have to step foot into a service waiting room. AFAIK, all luxury brands also wash and vacum your car when you bring it in for service, even if it’s for a $20 oil change. BMW, I think even replace your tires for free too, not to mention all other services needed w/in 40k miles.November 21, 2013 at 5:50 PM #768276CoronitaParticipant[quote=AN][quote=flu]Note to self… If ER needs car repair, offer to do it for him because what he expects should cost him money is normally free under warranty 🙂
ER, someone need to reset expectations for you, so I’ll go ahead and do it…
If you spend more than $60k+ for a new car, you shouldn’t have to pay anything more for things like this. It’s not specific to Tesla. It applies to just about any other car out there…Spending close to a $100k or over, you should expect concierge service….Except maybe BMW, in which case your mileage may vary depending on what stealership you go to…
Also,…For future reference…Best way to avoid this sort of thing in the future is simple. Buy your wife a matching car….[/quote]
Totally agree. Both Infiniti and Acura gives loaners for services taking longer than 1 hr. Huyndai takes service to the next level and actually come to you with an Equus and pick up your Equus for service. So you NEVER have to step foot into a service waiting room. AFAIK, all luxury brands also wash and vacum your car when you bring it in for service, even if it’s for a $20 oil change. BMW, I think even replace your tires for free too, not to mention all other services needed w/in 40k miles.[/quote]I wish BMW 4/50 bumper to bumper/maintainence covers tires… But no they don’t, if it’s normal wear. They will replace everything else but tires (including rotors and pads)… Runflats are pretty expensive proposition..
As far as the free car wash, There are a few dealers that will wash your car anytime you want even if you aren’t having service done. Fletcher Jones in L.A. was one, and I think there are a few down here if they are close to you. But I would only take the dealer up on that IF the car isn’t a dark color (black, dark blue, charcoal,etc). A lot of times, those free car washes are pretty skimpy and if you have a dark color car…well… welcome to swirl mark city…. I regret having a black and dark blue car. Looks great new. Terrible to maintain if you care…
November 22, 2013 at 3:13 PM #768337earlyretirementParticipantHey flu,
Hmm…well I’ve not heard of things being covered under “warranty” when there is impact and it’s probably the driver’s fault? It seemed to me that it was caused by impact of hitting a speed bump too fast or something. Just so I know….is this standard and covered under warranty with most car manufacturer?
As I recall, a few years ago my friend had something like this happen with his Mercedes and I remember they most certainly did NOT fix it for free. Is this the norm now?
November 22, 2013 at 3:29 PM #768339spdrunParticipantIf anything, I thought the industry was going the other way. Mercedes used to have free roadside assistance for all of their cars in the US, no matter how old. Now you have to have had a dealer appointment and spent a minimum price to be “covered.”
November 22, 2013 at 3:45 PM #768342CoronitaParticipant[quote=earlyretirement]Hey flu,
Hmm…well I’ve not heard of things being covered under “warranty” when there is impact and it’s probably the driver’s fault? It seemed to me that it was caused by impact of hitting a speed bump too fast or something. Just so I know….is this standard and covered under warranty with most car manufacturer?
As I recall, a few years ago my friend had something like this happen with his Mercedes and I remember they most certainly did NOT fix it for free. Is this the norm now?[/quote]
Oh, I didn’t realize the panel coming off was from a speed bump. But usually if it’s a matter of something just coming loose, then yes dealers should typically just take the time to repair it. It costs them nothing to do, and they could bill it to the manufacturer… provided there isn’t evidence of a collision, which from the picture it didn’t appear to be.. Especially is a part that costs nothing to them. It’s a matter of haggling of a neglible part with you, or irritating you such that you take your business to the other dealership and leaving them with a less than stellar survey result..
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