Housing won’t hit bottom ’til 2012

[permabear]

I think whatever happens to the $2M+ crowd will determine the direction of the market.

Right now there’s a flood of $2-5M homes. RSF has 2 years of inventory in that price range. You can’t spit without hitting a $2M custom listing in Santaluz.

If those sellers start dropping their prices aggressively, others will be forced to follow suit. So it seems to me a “who can afford to wait the longest” game.

sdr has good points about original owners who don’t have to sell. But on the flip side, my uncle builds high-end spec homes for a living. Over the past 2 years he has narrowly avoided certain death on more than one occasion. Many spec builders still need financing and in a place like Santaluz, a builder might be carrying at $15-20k/month until they (a) find a buyer or (b) exhaust their cash and get foreclosed on.

[briansd1]

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

Keep telling yourself that. Boomers will spend down their assets before they die.

Boomers will have to sell and downsize in order to retire. Unless we can grow the economy and household formation, housing is going nowhere. The trend might be towards grandparents moving back in with their kids.

During the peak, homeownership was at a record. The people with the wherewithal to buy have bought already.

It doesn’t matter who will never sell. If there are no incremental buyers, prices can’t go up.

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.

[/quote]

Americans are not known to leave paid off houses to their kids. We have a well developed mortgage market that allow people to access and spend their equity.

If you compare the USA to other poorer countries with less developed mortgage markets, it is they who are more likely to pass down houses from generation to generation.

[briansd1]

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

Keep telling yourself that. Boomers will spend down their assets before they die.

Boomers will have to sell and downsize in order to retire. Unless we can grow the economy and household formation, housing is going nowhere. The trend might be towards grandparents moving back in with their kids.

During the peak, homeownership was at a record. The people with the wherewithal to buy have bought already.

It doesn’t matter who will never sell. If there are no incremental buyers, prices can’t go up.

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.

[/quote]

Americans are not known to leave paid off houses to their kids. We have a well developed mortgage market that allow people to access and spend their equity.

If you compare the USA to other poorer countries with less developed mortgage markets, it is they who are more likely to pass down houses from generation to generation.

[briansd1]

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

Keep telling yourself that. Boomers will spend down their assets before they die.

Boomers will have to sell and downsize in order to retire. Unless we can grow the economy and household formation, housing is going nowhere. The trend might be towards grandparents moving back in with their kids.

During the peak, homeownership was at a record. The people with the wherewithal to buy have bought already.

It doesn’t matter who will never sell. If there are no incremental buyers, prices can’t go up.

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.

[/quote]

Americans are not known to leave paid off houses to their kids. We have a well developed mortgage market that allow people to access and spend their equity.

If you compare the USA to other poorer countries with less developed mortgage markets, it is they who are more likely to pass down houses from generation to generation.

[briansd1]

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

Keep telling yourself that. Boomers will spend down their assets before they die.

Boomers will have to sell and downsize in order to retire. Unless we can grow the economy and household formation, housing is going nowhere. The trend might be towards grandparents moving back in with their kids.

During the peak, homeownership was at a record. The people with the wherewithal to buy have bought already.

It doesn’t matter who will never sell. If there are no incremental buyers, prices can’t go up.

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.

[/quote]

Americans are not known to leave paid off houses to their kids. We have a well developed mortgage market that allow people to access and spend their equity.

If you compare the USA to other poorer countries with less developed mortgage markets, it is they who are more likely to pass down houses from generation to generation.

[briansd1]

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.
[/quote]

Keep telling yourself that. Boomers will spend down their assets before they die.

Boomers will have to sell and downsize in order to retire. Unless we can grow the economy and household formation, housing is going nowhere. The trend might be towards grandparents moving back in with their kids.

During the peak, homeownership was at a record. The people with the wherewithal to buy have bought already.

It doesn’t matter who will never sell. If there are no incremental buyers, prices can’t go up.

[quote=bearishgurl] They’ll just eventually retire their small mtgs or leave them for their heirs to pay off when they’re gone.

[/quote]

Americans are not known to leave paid off houses to their kids. We have a well developed mortgage market that allow people to access and spend their equity.

If you compare the USA to other poorer countries with less developed mortgage markets, it is they who are more likely to pass down houses from generation to generation.

[Anonymous]

Bearishgurl, if case shiller goes down for SD over the next two years, La Jolla and Pt Loma will go down with it. If anything the high end has further to fall. We’ll see.

Your detailed micro analysis misses the big picture. There are more macro economic events that are too strong. No area is insulated because in one way or another the economy and real estate markets are intertwined.

[Anonymous]

Bearishgurl, if case shiller goes down for SD over the next two years, La Jolla and Pt Loma will go down with it. If anything the high end has further to fall. We’ll see.

Your detailed micro analysis misses the big picture. There are more macro economic events that are too strong. No area is insulated because in one way or another the economy and real estate markets are intertwined.

[Anonymous]

Bearishgurl, if case shiller goes down for SD over the next two years, La Jolla and Pt Loma will go down with it. If anything the high end has further to fall. We’ll see.

Your detailed micro analysis misses the big picture. There are more macro economic events that are too strong. No area is insulated because in one way or another the economy and real estate markets are intertwined.

[Anonymous]

Bearishgurl, if case shiller goes down for SD over the next two years, La Jolla and Pt Loma will go down with it. If anything the high end has further to fall. We’ll see.

Your detailed micro analysis misses the big picture. There are more macro economic events that are too strong. No area is insulated because in one way or another the economy and real estate markets are intertwined.

[Anonymous]

Bearishgurl, if case shiller goes down for SD over the next two years, La Jolla and Pt Loma will go down with it. If anything the high end has further to fall. We’ll see.

Your detailed micro analysis misses the big picture. There are more macro economic events that are too strong. No area is insulated because in one way or another the economy and real estate markets are intertwined.

[bearishgurl]

CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”

For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.

Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.

-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-mas

Potential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.

The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.

[bearishgurl]

CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”

For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.

Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.

-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-mas

Potential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.

The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.

[bearishgurl]

CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”

For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.

Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.

-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-mas

Potential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.

The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.

[bearishgurl]

CAR, I understand what you’re trying to say here re: supply and demand. But RE values in coastal CA counties are determined by sold-comps in their respective “micro-markets.”

For instance, if small dry-rotted “Drogan-style” SFR’s in Loma Portal (92110) have recently sold for =< $500K, you may NOT find any comparably-sized SFR sold comps =<$500K in Plumosa Park (92106), even though the two areas are 1/2 to 1 mile apart.

Even if these two areas were in the same zip code, living in Plumosa Park has several advantages over Loma Portal.

-custom homes (not on tract)
-larger lots
-some wider sidewalks
-grassy traffic circle
-“Historic” low-glow street lamps
-some “Historic” homes
-occasional use of curved glass lends “character” to area
-raised foundations (easier to fix plumbing/heating)
-longtime dog-walking group
-caroling groups at X-mas

Potential buyers for this area may not need a mortgage (or lg mtg) in order to purchase. They may be downsizing retirees or an individual with a construction background who wishes to rehab a personal residence for his/her family or to retire in.

The attractive locations and ambiance of these areas attracts buyers who are not interest-rate and job-sensitive.

[Author]

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